INDIA AND THE CIA PLOT TO KILL ZHOU ENLAI

The Last Survivor Dies

MC Dikshit, who co-piloted the Air India Flight 300 Constellation Kashmir Princess that fell into the sea after a mid-air bomb blast on April 11, 1955, died in Delhi on December 5 at the age of 105 after a prolonged illness. And with him, the world lost the last of the witnesses to a gruesome CIA conspiracy. The Kashmir Princess, a small four-engine propeller-driven Lockheed, was sent by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to take Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai to Jakarta for the historic Bandung conference.

Sporting a Ho Chi Minh beard, the frail Dikshit lived in East Delhi’s Samachar Apartments and shopped in the local market even during his last days.

Even in his sunset days, Dikshit was reluctant to talk about what happened in 1955. However, his colleague Anant S Karnik told the story in a book.

M C Dikshit

The backdrop to the CIA's assassination plot is provided by several political upheavals like China's annexation of Tibet in 1950, the CIA-sponsored flight of Dalai Lama to India, Nehru's subsequent slogan, Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai or "Indians and Chinese are brothers," and the first Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1954-1955.

But the deputy prime minister Vallabhbhai Patel, who was suspicious of Nehru's bonhomie with China, wrote to him in December 1950:

We have to consider what the new situation now faces us as a result of the disappearance of Tibet, as we know it, and the expansion of China up to our gates. Throughout history, we have seldom been worried about our northeast frontier. The Himalayas has been regarded as an impenetrable barrier against threats from the north. We had friendly Tibet which gave us no trouble. The Chinese were divided. They had their domestic problems and never bothered us about our frontiers." (1)

Patel died soon on December 15th and Nehru continued to dovetail China. India officially recognized Chinese sovereignty over Tibet through the 1954 agreement on Trade and Intercourse between India and the Tibet Region of China. But India had in effect recognized Tibet as part of China in September 1952, when it decided to change the status of its mission in Lhasa to that of a Consulate General. 

The preamble of the 1954 agreement included the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence, known as the Panchsheel Treaty. 

But, at the homefront, China was facing a nuclear threat from the U.S. in the aftermath of the first Taiwan Strait Crisis.

Taiwan Strait Crisis

The First Taiwan Strait Crisis was a brief armed conflict between the Communist People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Nationalist Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan. The conflict focused on several groups of islands in the Taiwan Strait that were held by the ROC but were located only a few miles from mainland China. The crisis began when the PRC shelled the ROC-held island of Kinmen (Quemoy). Later, the PRC seized the Yijiangshan Islands from the ROC. The ROC then abandoned the Tachen Islands (Dachen Islands), which were evacuated by the navies of the ROC and the US.

In August 1954, the Nationalists placed 58,000 troops on Kinmen and 15,000 troops on Matsu. The ROC began building defensive structures and the PRC began shelling ROC installations on Kinmen. Zhou Enlai responded with a declaration on 11 August 1954, that Taiwan must be "liberated." He dispatched the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to the area, and it began shelling both Kinmen and the Matsu Islands.

Despite warnings from the U.S. against any attacks on the Republic of China; five days before the signing of the Manila pact, the PLA unleashed a heavy artillery bombardment of Kinmen on September 3, during which two American military advisers were killed. In November, the PLA bombed the Tachen Islands. This renewed Cold War fears of Communist expansion in Asia at a time when the PRC was not recognized by the U.S. Chiang Kai-shek's government was supported by the U.S. because the ROC was part of the U.S. policy of containment of communism.

On 12 September 1954, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff recommended the use of nuclear weapons against mainland China. President Eisenhower resisted the pressure. However, on 2 December 1954, the U.S. and the ROC agreed to the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, which did not apply to islands along the Chinese mainland.

The PLA seized the Yijiangshan Islands on 18 January 1955. Fighting continued in nearby islands off the coast of Zhejiang, as well as around Kinmen and the Matsu Islands in Fujian. On 29 January, the Formosa Resolution was approved by both houses of the U.S. Congress authorizing Eisenhower to use U.S. forces to defend the ROC and its possessions in the Taiwan Strait against armed attack. The U.S. Navy then assisted the Nationalists in evacuating their forces from the Tachen Islands.

In February, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill warned the U.S. against using nuclear weapons, but in March, U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles stated publicly that the U.S. was seriously considering a nuclear strike. In response, the NATO foreign ministers warned at a meeting of the alliance against such action. In late March, U.S. Admiral Robert B. Carney said that Eisenhower is planning "to destroy Red China's military potential. The PRC backed down in the face of American nuclear brinksmanship and in light of the lack of willingness by the Soviet Union to threaten nuclear retaliation for an attack on the PRC.

Filled with internal squabbles, China was weak and Nehru was the champion of the newly independent countries in Asia and Africa. The Panchsheel came to form the basis of the Non-Aligned Movement, which was born when leaders from 29 newly independent Asian and African countries met in the Indonesian resort city of Bandung from April 18 to 24, 1955. 

The previous year, 1954, the US had set up a body to help “direct the thinking” of poor countries on the other side of the world.

American political operatives travelled to Asia to pull together a group called the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, described as a political-military alliance of states to "contain communism". In practice, it was a body designed to foster loyalty to the US and create negative feelings towards groups associated with socialism or communism.

But Indonesia’s Sukarno, leader of the world’s fifth most populous country, responded by organizing a group of home-grown Asian voices: the Bandung Conference. Asian leaders who signed up to attend the Indonesian meeting were in favour of a doctrine of neutralism as the logical default position of the developing world.

From the US administration’s point of view, neutralism was unacceptable. The antipathy of CIA deputy director Frank Wisner towards Sukarno and Zhou Enlai was well known. Asia contained more than 50 per cent of the world’s population – it was unthinkable that it should lean toward socialism or communism.

In the allied-US territory of Taiwan, leaders feared that Zhou Enlai’s peace initiatives (including the cultivating of good relationships with British leaders, such as Hong Kong’s Governor Alexander Grantham) meant that it had become conceivable that China would one day join the United Nations. That had to be prevented.

Amidst its fruit orchards, Dutch-built canals, and colonial bungalows, it was Indonesia's Sukarno who played host to an array of leaders, including the mercurial Prince Norodom Sihanouk of Cambodia, Egypt's firebrand Prime Minister Gamal Abdul Nasser, Sir John Kotelawala of Ceylon, Pakistan's Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Bogra, and Burma's Premier U Nu. 

China's Zhou Enlai was also there, invited at Nehru's insistence.

The explosion inside

In view of the security threat to the Chinese PM Zhou Enlai, Nehru had offered to ferry him and his delegation in the Air India aeroplane, Kashmir Princess, from Hongkong to Jakarta to attend the Bandung conference, from April 18 to 24, 1955. 

The plane took off on the night of April 11, 1955, from Hong Kong's Kai Tuk Airport, but without Zhou Enlai and his senior colleagues. China had gotten wind of the CIA plot. But, Li Hing, in The Truth Behind the Kashmir Princess Incident, records that Zhou had delayed his travel due to health reasons. (2) Xinhua reported in 2005 that Zhou was forced to change his schedule for an appendicitis excision.

Five hours after the takeoff, Kashmir Princess exploded at a height of 18,000 feet. Around 09:25 GMT, while cruising at FL180, a muffled explosion was heard and smoke entered the cabin. 

An instant later, the pilots saw flames streaming from behind the number three engine on the right wing. Smoke began to fill the cockpit. As the captain shut down and feathered the number three engine, he saw too that the fire warning light for the baggage compartment was illuminated.

A fire in the cargo hold, a fire on the wing, and smoke in the cockpit were extraordinary, life-threatening emergencies. As the captain pointed the plane’s nose down toward the sea, he hoped to ditch the plane into the water so that the survivors could escape in life rafts. A distress call was transmitted, declaring the airliner’s position over the Natuna Islands, in Indonesia.

Moments later, the radio went dead as the electrical system in the aeroplane began to fail, along with other critical systems as the fire spread below.

During the descent hydraulic failure occurred, followed by an electrical failure. A ditching was planned, but dense smoke entered the cockpit. The aircraft struck the water's surface with the right wingtip and crashed. Rescuers arriving at the scene discovered that it had broken into three parts on impact.

Kashmir Princess

Sixteen persons, including the crew, were killed as the smoke-filled plane nose-dived into the South China Sea near Natuna island. Three crew members — co-pilot M C Dikshit, flight navigator J C Pathak, and mechanical engineer A S Karnik — survived the crash. They kept themselves afloat on the South China Sea for 12 hours before Indonesian fishermen rescued them the next day. A British warship took them safely to Singapore.

All except three crew members — Dikshit, Pathak and Karnik — were killed. Captain D K Jatar remained in his seat and supervised the rescue operations. Air hostess Gloria Berry kept her calm and distributed seat belts to the passengers risking her own life. Jatar and air hostess Gloria Berry courageously saved the passengers from the falling plane.

Gloria Berry had pleaded with Jatar for him to jump and save his own life, but he knew that this was his plane to man till the end and as the duty of a pilot he did that without hesitation. Gloria remained with him till the end. When the wreckage of the aircraft was recovered during the investigation, Jatar’s body was found slumped on his chair in the cockpit.

Jatar and Gloria were awarded the Ashok Chakra, posthumously. They were the first civilians to be posthumously awarded the Ashoka Chakra.

Three members of the Chinese conference delegation, five Chinese journalists, one member of the Vietnamese delegation, one Polish journalist and one Austrian journalist died in the crash.

Three journalists were from the Xinhua news agency: Shen Jiantu, Huang Zuomei and Li Ping. Shen, who died at the age of 40, was the eldest, while Li was only 26.

The dead included a war hero, Raymond Wong Chok-Mui, who worked for the Chinese and the British against invading Japanese soldiers in the 1940s.

The passengers were a decoy delegation of lesser cadres, according to a research paper, Target Zhou Enlai: The Kashmir Princess Incident of 1955 by Steve Tsang. The flight had been chartered by China.

Back in Delhi, Nehru invited the three survivors to Teen Murti House. But they politely declined any special honours.

The CIA-Taiwan plot

In July 2005, China declassified the records relating to the CIA conspiracy. It revealed that four days before the blast, on April 7, Zhou had changed his plans and decided to accept Burmese leader U Nu’s invitation to fly him from Rangoon to Jakarta. Zhou left China three days after the crash and flew to Rangoon. Nehru and Egypt’s Kamal Abdul Nasser also joined the team, from Rangoon to Bandung. However, the change in the flight was kept a secret with a view to confusing the U.S.

The de-classified Chinese documents revealed that Zhou Enlai had been tipped off about the upcoming bombing of the Kashmir Princess. Rather than cancel the flight and lodge a protest, he had assigned lower-level Chinese cadre officials onto the aeroplane as well as a set of journalists, as their presence would result in wider press coverage.

Three days later, Zhou would emerge in Jakarta, riding a wave of positive press coverage.

The full evaluation of the events determined that an explosion had taken place in the plane’s wheel. That, in turn, had ignited fires in the baggage compartment and on the right wing. The most obvious explanation was a bomb mixed in with the passenger bags.

To the investigators, it made no sense for one of the passengers to have brought a bomb on board in a suicidal bid to down the plane. The fact that originally Zhou Enlai was supposed to have been on board was strong circumstantial evidence pointing to an assassination attempt, but by whom? 

Interviews were conducted with all of the ground crew, fuel truck staff and baggage handlers who might have had access to the plane at its points of origin as well as in Hong Kong, where the flight had made a stop en route to Jakarta. All of the personnel checked out and were proven to be innocent, except for one Hong Kong janitor working for an airport contractor. Quite simply, the man who investigators had originally identified as the lowly janitor, Chow Tse-Ming, was missing.

Zhou with Nehru in Bandung

China’s investigations showed that the plot was masterminded by the CIA but executed by Kuomintang agents in Hong Kong. Chow, 34, a cleaner of Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company (HAECO) at the airport and a drug addict, had planted the explosive — a US-made MK-7 detonator — in the wheels of the aircraft. In the middle of the investigations by the British administration of Hong Kong, Chow was flown to safety in Taipei in an aeroplane owned by a CIA-funded firm.

Chow Tse-Ming was an alias; in fact, two other aliases for the same man were also uncovered. He used the name Chow Tse-ming in Cantonese and Zhou Ju in Mandarin. As well, in the days leading up to the bombing and crash of the plane, Chow had been spending a lot of money around Hong Kong.

Finally, his disappearance from Hong Kong was finally traced to him having departed quietly, hidden in the luggage compartment of a Civil Air Transport (CAT) flight to Taiwan. CAT was a frequent CIA contract air carrier, though it also flew other airline operations and cargo flights around the region. CAT was set up in Delaware to serve US interests in East Asia.

Wreckage of Kashmir Princess in sea

Indonesian investigators reported that amidst the wreckage, they had identified an American-made MK-7 detonator device. The British-run Hong Kong police surmised that it seemed likely that the man was an agent of the Kuomintang’s intelligence operations arm, a theory which the Chinese also felt had validity — undoubtedly, the CIA had supplied MK-7 triggers to Taiwan.

Li Hong writes that deeply grieved by the crash, Zhou Enlai personally oversaw efforts to crack the case, dispatching trusted intelligence officer Xiong Xianghui to Hong Kong as his liaison with other intelligence outfits. (2) In June 1956, British authorities in Hong Kong arrested 44 Chiang Kai-shek spies, who were all expelled from the territory, and thus set free. On August 4, Zhou lodged a formal complaint with British authorities, saying "the British government still bears an inescapable international responsibility.

Zhou Enlai made enormous efforts to expose the destructive US-Taiwan plot. The Chinese Premier, in his talks with Henry Kissinger in 1971, described the incident of Kashmir Princess thus:(3)

When I went to the Bandung Conference in 1955 I almost lost my life. At that time we chartered an Indian plane, the “Kashmir Princess” from Hong Kong. Because Prime Minister U Nu wanted me to go with him, I went to Burma. He asked Nehru and Nasser to go with him and I changed my route at the last minute while the others went via Hong Kong. The saboteurs thought I was on the “Kashmir Princess” and set a time bomb on the plane. Just as the “Kashmir Princess” was about to reach Bandung, it exploded in mid-air and crashed into the sea.

India, together with authorities in Hong Kong, investigated the bombing. We have evidence that the bomb was placed by a Chinese who was brought over to Hong Kong, and I convinced the Indian Commissioner to go directly with our people to Hong Kong and demand from the Hong Kong authorities that they arrest that man. But such news leaks out, and the Indian told his Embassy, and just as we got to Hong Kong, that man flew to Taiwan.

In the years that followed, the Chinese asked the Nixon White House twice about the events of the plane’s bombing and whether the CIA had been involved, expecting that perhaps the attempt had been a joint CIA-KMT operation. In response to the second request, Kissinger quietly noted that the Chinese thought far too highly of the CIA’s actual abilities. Ultimately, the evidence was compelling but not conclusive that the Kuomintang Government of Taiwan had attempted to assassinate Zhou Enlai.

Kao reveals the plot

India deputed R N Kao to investigate the crash of the Kashmir Princess. Kao later became the founding chief of the Research & Analysis Wing (RAW).

Born in the holy city of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh in 1918 to a Kashmiri Hindu Pandit family who migrated from Srinagar, Rameshwar Nath Kao joined the Indian Imperial Police, after clearing the civil services examination, in 1940. After completing the Master's degree in English Literature at Allahabad University, Kao, for a while, took up a job in a cigarette company floated by Pandit Jag Mohan Narain Mushran, the then Chief Justice of the Benaras State.  

As a police officer, his first posting was in Kanpur as an Assistant Superintendent of Police. Kao was deputed to the Intelligence Bureau (IB) on the eve of Independence when it was being reorganised under B.N. Mullick. He was put in charge of VIP security, which included the task of looking after the security ring of  Nehru. Sometime in the late 1950s, he was sent to Ghana to help the then government of prime minister Kwame Nkrumah set up an intelligence and security organisation there. But it was the Kashmir Princess investigation that made the reclusive Kao, a hero.

The three survivors, including Dikshit, were crucial to the investigation. The details of Kao's investigation have been recorded in a book, The War That Made R &AW by Anusha Nandakumar and Sandeep Saket.

At the Chinese premier’s office in Beijing, Kao’s one-on-one briefing with Zhou Enlai was held behind closed doors. Even though Kao was determined to be the neutral investigator on the case, Zhou advanced theories of a Taiwanese conspiracy behind the crash and urged Kao to expedite the investigation process and submit his findings.

Xinhua journalists who died in the crash

Over several months, Kao worked doggedly in collaboration with the Chinese, Hong Kong and British police to unravel the threads of the conspiracy. The investigation took him to Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Hong Kong and China.

His patience and rigour finally paid off in September 1955. A clear picture had started emerging of the events that had occurred on the day of the Kashmir Princess crash. Realising that he had finished his probe, Kao sent an official message to Zhou Enlai with his investigative results. In Beijing, Zhou immediately sent for Kao.

In a detailed briefing, Kao told Zhou how his investigation had led him to Chow Tse-Ming or Chow Chu. A Taiwanese national working as a member of the ground maintenance crew of the Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company, Chow had agreed to place a time bomb—a weapon of choice in those days—in the Kashmir Princess. In return, he was promised a reward of 6,00,000 Hong Kong dollars, by a Taiwanese spy named Wu Yi-chin. He guaranteed Chow's escape to Taiwan, a place from which he could not be extradited, and where he could live out his days as a king on his huge pot of wealth.

Chow had been in Hong Kong since 1950, and gambling debts made him a receptive target. He would be part of the crew performing routine maintenance on Zhou Enlai’s plane, meaning he’d have a window of opportunity to plant an explosive on board.

On April 11, Kashmir Princess arrived in Hong Kong from Bangkok around noon and spent nearly 90 minutes on the ground at Kai Tak. Luggage — 37 pieces — were loaded onto the place, supervised carefully by CTS. During that time, while part of the crew was performing its scheduled maintenance, chow placed a time bomb in the aircraft’s starboard wheel well.

The mastermind behind the plot was Chiang Kaishek, the ousted Chinese leader, who had gone on to become the ruler of Taiwan. Kai-shek was plotting to kill Zhou Enlai, and when it was publicly known that he would be taking a chartered flight from Hong Kong to attend the Bandung Conference, he made his move. The Kashmir Princess crash was the result of this ongoing political rivalry between China and Taiwan.

Captain D K Jatar

Zhou Enlai was impressed with Kao’s investigation, including the dexterity of his mediations between the colonial government in Hong Kong and the communist government in mainland China. Zhou rewarded Kao with his coveted personal seal, an honour reserved for the most deserving public servants in the Chinese republic.

The US confession

From the very beginning, the U.S. had viewed the Bandung conference as a Soviet ploy against it. Three months before the conference, in January, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles set up a working group which included intelligence outfits and diplomats to keep a tab on what was seen as an anti-US line-up.

At the time, the West viewed the Bandung Conference as a gathering of communists and pro-communists that would boost the expansion of communism in Asia. The CIA believed that China planned to use the conference to boost its image as a world power. Although the CIA sent several agents posing as journalists to cover the conference, evidence suggests that some CIA officers might have taken a further role in the action.

In 1975, a U.S. Senate committee heard testimony about CIA activities in East Asia in the 1950s and CIA officers revealed the plot to assassinate an East Asian leader “to disrupt an impending Communist [sic] Conference in 1955.” That leader’s identity would remain unknown until 1977, when William Corson, a retired U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in Asia, published Armies of Ignorance, identifying that leader as Zhou Enlai.

CIA agent John Discoe Smith, working in India, defected to the Soviet Union, on October 24, 1967. He accounted for many of his operations in his memoirs, I Was a CIA Agent in India, including his delivery of a mysterious bag to a KMT agent. He says that in 1955, Jack Curran, a CIA officer attached to the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, asked him to deliver a bag to one Wang Feng at the Maidens Hotel in the Indian capital. Smith claimed that the bag contained the bomb used to sabotage Kashmir Princess. Curran told him to be careful, as the suitcase contained explosive devices—for use in Hong Kong.

The book reveals that Smith had spent 1954 to 1959 in India working as a communications technician and code clerk at the US Embassy in New Delhi. This involved routinely performing tasks for the CIA.

Between June 1954 and January 1957, Zhou paid four visits to India, and in October 1954, Nehru flew to Beijing, where he met not only Zhou but also Mao. It was the first visit by the head of a non-communist government since the creation of the People's Republic of China. According to New York Times, "The six miles between city and airport were walled by unbroken banks of humanity, clapping, cheering and crying the inescapable Chinese slogan, "Long live peace."

So, China raising the question of the annexation of Taiwan time and again, is not without substance. The Kashmir Princess incident reminds us that not too long ago, the fighting between the two sides was not limited to words and worry, but included very real attacks, attempted high-level assassination, spycraft, and murder.

Tail end:

Interestingly, former flight engineer A.S. Karnik, 82, received a cheque for 50,000 rupees ($8,800) in 2005 from the Chinese ambassador to India, Sun Yuxi. Karnik approached the Chinese embassy in September last year after the Indian government failed to pay him the monthly allowance it promised for his bravery in 1972.

Captain D K Jatar, who piloted Kashmir Princess, is a part of Indian aviation history-Air India's maiden international flight was captained by K R Guzdar and D K Jatar. On June 8, 1948, Malabar Princess, a 40- seater Lockheed L-749 Constellation flew over 8407 km from Mumbai to London via Cairo and Geneva. It carried 35 passengers, including JRD Tata.

On arrival in Taiwan, Chow Tse-ming, the man who planted the bomb, was arrested at Taipei airport as an illegal immigrant. Taiwan officials told him that he was going to be sent back to British Hong Kong.

But at the last moment, someone had a word with immigration officers and Chow was allowed to disappear into the Taiwanese population. He lived out his years as a rich man in Taiwan.

The incident suggests that the heinous crime involving the Indian aircraft was being supervised by the larger power, which still guides Taiwan.

__________________

1. Quoted in Bertil Lintner, China's India War, Page 14

2. Selected Essays on the History of Contemporary China, Brill, 2015

3. Office of the Historian, Government of the United States. 162. Memorandum of Conversation. Beijing, October 21, 1971. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, Volume XVII, China, 1969-1972. Retrieved from: Office of the Historian, United States Department of State (https://history.state.gov/).

© Ramachandran 

OUT OF PLEASURE, MINISTER K K TEWARY RESIGNED

Amin Khan of Rajasthan also quit

Article 164 of the Constitution of India. Other provisions as to Ministers : (1) The Chief Minister shall be appointed by the Governor and the other Ministers shall be appointed by the Governor on the advice of the Chief Minister, and the Ministers shall hold office during the pleasure of the Governor.

On the day of Diwali, when the Governor of Kerala, Arif Mohammad Khan met the journalists in Raj Bhavan, he mentioned that a minister in the Rajiv Gandhi government had to resign when the then President of India had informed the Prime Minister of his displeasure on the minister. The press meeting was over 80 minutes, but none of the journalists bothered to ask the Governor, about the details of the past incident. I felt sad.

The incident happened in 1985 and the minister who had to resign was K K Tewary and the President who wrote to Rajiv Gandhi revealing his displeasure was Gyani Zail Singh. It is a known fact that Zail Singh had a running feud with Rajiv Gandhi then.

Arif Mohammad Khan, at that time, had been a colleague of Tewary in the Rajiv Gandhi cabinet, as minister of state for Information and Broadcasting.

Tewary had been elected twice from the Buxar Lok Sabha constituency in 1980 and 1984, and he became Union Minister of State for Public Enterprise, in Rajiv Gandhi's 1984 cabinet. Zail Singh had written to the PM withdrawing his pleasure on Tiwary, referring to the minister's allegations of Zail Singh having extremist links. It isn't often that polemical broadsides are aimed at the August person of the President of India, or the Governor of a state, who are national symbols and supposed to be above controversy.

K K Tewary

So more than a few eyebrows went up in May 1985, when Tewary, alleged in the Lok Sabha that two Sikhs supposed to be connected with extremists overseas had been President Zail Singh's guests at Rashtrapati Bhawan in 1983.

Tewary's remarks came close on the heels of stories in sections of the media alleging that the President had links with extremists. Admittedly, the sensational stories looked like a campaign.

The most blatant accusation came from Tewary. Speaking in a debate on a public hearing on the so-called "human rights" issue in Punjab in Washington, Tewari said that Didar Singh Bains and Harbhajan Singh Jogi (Khalsa), two men who he said were associated with such extremist leaders as Jagjit Singh Chauhan and Ganga Singh Dhillon, had stayed at Rashtrapati Bhawan in 1983.

Trying to establish a link thus between Rashtrapati Bhawan and these protagonists of Khalistan, Tewary thundered: "I would like to ask the (home) minister how their stay was possible."

Home Minister S.B. Chavan seemed less than enthusiastic in his reply. Taking two days to make a riposte, all he did was read out the official denial issued by Rashtrapati Bhawan saying that Bains and Jogi had not stayed there.

What made Tewary's allegation interesting was not just that it was made but that he doesn't seem to have been taken to task for speaking out of turn. Chavan's defence was so half-hearted - opposition leaders felt that the feelings he expressed were actually inspired by higher-ups.

Bains

But Tewary firmly denied later that he was acting on orders. Said he: "I have been in Parliament for six years and I have been known to speak my mind. This was an issue I felt strongly about."

The story of Bains and Jogi

Both Bains and Jogi had visited India several times and Jogi at least had been in Rashtrapati Bhawan as a visitor if not as an overnight guest, and Jogi had also met the late prime minister Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi before he became prime minister.

Jogi, or Yogi Bhajan a former customs inspector at Delhi airport, had left India in the 1960s to settle in the United States. He is credited with having converted a number of white Americans to Sikhism and becoming a wealthy man owning property including ashrams in several parts of The US.

Jogi has been accused posthumously of sexual abuse by hundreds of his female followers; an investigation called the Olive Branch Report found the allegations most likely true.

In 2019, Yogi Bhajan's former secretary Pamela Saharah Dyson published the book Premka: White Bird in a Golden Cage: My Life with Yogi Bhajan, reporting that she and other women had sexual relationships with Harbhajan Singh. In March 2020, anti-cult activist Be Scofield published an article in her magazine, The Guru reporting sexual abuse and rape of female followers and assistants including Dyson by Harbhajan Singh, based on "over a dozen original interviews."

But he was no stranger to India. According to the official records, he was in India on December 9, 1982, and stayed with his disciples in a five-star hotel in the capital. He was back in India in 1984 and sat in the VIP enclosure at the Republic Day parade.

Jogi

Three months later, when President Zail Singh visited Mexico, he dropped in on Jogi's Los Angeles ashram. Even Minister of State for Steel, Natwar Singh, who was then foreign secretary, was with him. The itinerary significantly was approved by the Government.

Didar Singh Bains, founder of Gurdwara Yuba City California was one of the wealthiest Sikhs in the US to which he migrated shortly after Independence in 1947. Known as the “Peach King” of California, he was one of the richest Sikh farmers in North America.

He arrived in the US with only $8 and went on to own over 40 pockets of land in 13 counties, including 667 acres of land near Sacramento International Airport. He became one of Northern California’s richest men, having assets worth USD 50 million. Bains worked as a labourer during his initial days in the US. He not only sponsored his own family members, but countless other people of the region to immigrate to the US since 1960.

Bains also has been an acquaintance of Zail Singh's for some time.

But Operation Bluestar changed his view on his country of origin completely. Shortly after the crack-down on extremists in the Golden Temple in June 1984, he told India Today (July 15, 1984) in the US: "My only solution now is Khalistan. Before the raid, I was not too much for it."

Bains too was reported to have visited India often though not since the army crackdown. More important, he was once considered for an honour by Mrs Gandhi's government.

Zail Singh

According to information from intelligence sources, Jogi and Bains were in different ways committed to the extremist cause. But while Jogi was known more for his flamboyance, Bains may have been more active in the separatist movement. But the way things were, it would have done nobody any good, certainly not the President, to publicly own up to a friendship with the two.

Before he became President, Zail Singh was embroiled in an unseemly battle for influence within the Congress(I) in Punjab, battling his chief rival in the party, Darbara Singh, in a manner which gave all the advantage to the extremist leader Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale.

Incidents in which the rivalry between these two Congress(I) leaders allowed Bhindranwale to evade arrest and Zail Singh's presence at a religious ceremony together with Bhindranwale are now an indelible part of the Punjab story.

The pleasure doctrine

But in the present context, it will do well for the ignorant journalists to remember the story-after Tiwary "revealed," Zail Singh's connection with the "extremists", the President wrote a letter to the Prime Minister like the one Arif Mohammad Khan sent to the Chief Minister. Rajiv Gandhi consulted all the available constitutional experts, but could not rescue Tiwary. If the President/Governor loses his pleasure on a minister, there is no other way. The 'pleasure' is discretion, and it cannot be questioned.

Tewary resigned immediately, or he was asked to resign by Rajiv Gandhi. Tiwary was reinstated as minister after Zail Singh's exit in 1987.

Tewary had also openly criticised Zail Singh, following the appointment given to Congress dissidents Pranab Mukherjee and Gundu Rao by Rashtrapati Bhawan for presenting a memorandum against the Government. Rajiv Gandhi had fallen out with Pranab.

In 1990 June, Tewary earned a record when he was reprimanded in the Rajya Sabha, for his outburst against Vice-President Shankar Dayal Sharma who was also chairman of the upper House.

It was the first time a former minister has been hauled up.

Tewary's return to the limelight came after Sharma indicted Congress(I) members for their rowdy behaviour. Obviously feeling left out of the action, Tewary emerged to "defend my party". The defence took the form of an attack on the chairman, whom Tewary accused of an "utterly outrageous and totally impermissible outburst". For good measure, he added that Sharma's "hysterical rantings have not served the cause of democracy as his simulated dramatics were clearly aimed at gagging the only opposition party and its members".

The statement led to an uproar in the House and finally, it was decided to reprimand Tewary. After his attempts to evade the order through the Supreme Court failed, Tewary eventually turned up on June 1.

He was literally put in the dock while Heptulla read out the reprimand which, apart from censuring Tewary, stated that a more severe penalty was not being administered in the hope that he would repent.

Now, Arif Mohammad Khan, who cited the 1985 incident has written to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, withdrawing his pleasure on the Finance Minister K N Balagopal, and according to precedence, Balagopal's days are numbered.

In February 2011, Rajasthan Minister of State for Rural Development and Waqf, Amin Khan had to quit after a row over disparaging remarks he made about President Pratibha Patil. He was asked to quit by Chief Minister Asok Gehlot.

"The president cooked food and washed dishes in Indira Gandhi's kitchen in 1977," Khan told a gathering of Congress workers. "She never asked for anything in return, so she was finally rewarded by the Congress with the president's post," he said.

Amin was asked to quit knowing the displeasure of the President-it could be settled without Ms Patil writing a letter because Amin belonged to the Congress, of which she was a member.

In 2015, the Governor of Uttar Pradesh, Ram Naik withdrew his pleasure on minister Azam Khan, for abusing him in the assembly during the discussion of the Nagar Nigam bill, and wrote a letter to the Speaker. When the minister did not resign, a quo warranto petition was filed by a person in the Allahabad High Court. The Governor had summoned the video footage of the discussion and had found that indeed Khan's remarks were defamatory.

The UP government took the position that remarks made by MLAs inside the assembly are not subject to judicial review. The Speaker has the authority to take action and the remarks removed from assembly records will not be available to the public. There are court orders which said that it is not the judiciary but the administrative leadership that has the right to take action. The government also pleaded that the withdrawal of the pleasure must be by consensus on the advice of the Chief Minister. 

Ajoy Mukherjee

The court pointed out that the Governor has not issued a notification withdrawing the minister. The note containing the displeasure of the Governor should not be subjected to judicial review. The court said that the Governor, Speaker and the CM should solve the problem.

The current situation in Kerala is not similar to the Azam Khan case, since the incident doesn't pertain to hate speech inside the assembly. The Governor has raised a case of sedition, on remarks made in public. More than that, the Governor referred to the sedition cases against former minister Saji Cherian and K T Jaleel, MLA. It means the Governor sees a pattern in Balagopal's seditious speech.

It is well known that the Communist Party of India had not recognised the freedom that India attained in 1947; they termed it bourgeois freedom and recognised the country's freedom only during the 1956 Palakkad Congress session.

There are several instances in which courts have upheld the doctrine of pleasure. In November 1967, the Governor of West Bengal, Mahabir Prasad Sharma dismissed Chief Minister Ajoy Mukherjee and appointed Prafulla Chandra Ghosh. When a case was filed in the High Court, Justice B Mitra ruled:

"Article 164(1) provides that the Ministers shall hold office during the pleasure of the Governor. This exercise of pleasure by the Governor, however, has not been fettered by any condition or restriction. The withdrawal of the pleasure by the Governor is, in my view, a matter entirely at the discretion of the Governor. The provision in clause (2) of Article 164, that the Ministers shall be collectively responsible to the Legislative Assembly of the State, does not in any manner fetter or restrict the Governor's power to withdraw the pleasure during which the Ministers hold office. Collective responsibility contemplated by Cl. (2) of Article 164 means that the Council of Ministers is answerable to the Legislative Assembly of the State. It follows that a majority of the members of the Legislative Assembly can at any time express its want of confidence in the Council of Ministers. But that is as far as the Legislative Assembly can go. The Constitution has not conferred any power on the Legislative Assembly of the State to dismiss or remove from office the Council of Ministers. If a Council of Ministers refuses to vacate the office of Ministers, even after a motion of no-confidence has been passed against it in the Legislative Assembly of the State, it will then be for the Governor to withdraw the pleasure during which the Council of Ministers hold office. The power to appoint the Chief Minister, and the Council of Ministers on the advice of the Chief Minister, and the power to remove the Ministers from office, by withdrawing the pleasure contemplated by Article 164(1) have been conferred upon the Governor of the State exclusively".

This ruling upholds the Governor's power to withdraw his pleasure.

© Ramachandran 

CHINA: THE MEANING OF CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

Taiwan in the amendment

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (NCCPC) established Xi Jinping's core position in the Party, the Central Committee and the guiding role of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and it set the rejuvenation of China on "an irreversible historical course."

Xi’s role as the “core” of the party was reaffirmed in amendments to the party’s constitution approved by Congress on the closing day.

A resolution said that the “Two Establishes”, which define Xi as the “core leader” of the Party and his thoughts as the guiding principles of China’s future development, were the major political achievements of the Party.

This follows the introduction in 2021, into the constitution, of the "Two Establishes" idea, which confirmed Xi as the core of the Party and its Central Committee (CC), and the guiding force of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era.”

To better reflect “new achievements” under Xi’s leadership, the delegates agreed to add “new developments” in the past five years to the section on “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”.

Xi Jinping after the Congress

Also added to the constitution was a reference to further elevating the party’s status in public life, referring to “the party as the supreme leading power”, and urging it to “continue to strengthen the comprehensive leadership of the party”.

The Congress, which retained Xi as Party General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, will also be etched in the annals of history forever, as it confirmed President Xi for an unprecedented third term. 

The Party has now broken a rule established two decades ago by outgoing President Jiang Zemin: a retirement age of 68. 

The foundations for Xi’s third term were laid in 2018 when the National People’s Congress voted to remove the two-term bar for presidents that had been introduced by Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 to 1989.

Xi is only the third leader in modern China to have an ideology in his name after “Mao Zedong Thought” and “Deng Xiaoping Theory”.

The amendment of the constitution indicates Xi’s authority. At the last national congress in 2017, Xi’s eponymous ideology of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era was first enshrined in the party constitution, alongside the doctrines of Mao and Deng, elevating Xi to their level.

The post of Chairman, which Mao held, was abolished after he died in 1976. The system of the general secretary as head of state began with Jiang Zemin, who was general secretary from 1989 to 2002 becoming President in 1993.

Half the members of the 25-person Politburo, aged out under the retirement rule.

Four members of the Politburo Standing Committee retired: Premier Li Keqiang, 67; National People’s Congress chairman Li Zhanshu, 72; Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference chairman Wang Yang, 67; and Vice-Premier Han Zheng, 68.

They were replaced by  Li Qiang, 63, Li Xi, 66,  Ding Xuexiang 60, and Cai Qi, 66. Together with Wang Huning, 67, and anti-corruption chief Zhao Leji, 65, they form the new Politburo Standing Committee, led by Xi Jinping.

Li Keqiang, 67, the Premier, is not in the C C and will step down, according to the constitution, having completed two terms. The new PM will be Li Qiang, since he is the second in the hierarchy, after Xi.

Li Xi, 66, the Guangdong Party Chief is among the 133 new members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) and is the only member in the body who is on the 25-strong Politburo. He is on track to become the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, replacing Zhao Leji.

A surprise exit from the Central Committee is, Chen Quanguo, 66, the former party chief of both Xinjiang and Tibet. He was promoted to the Politburo, the party’s highest policymaking body, five years ago. Transport Minister Li Xiaopeng, 63, the son of former National People’s Congress chairman and Chinese premier Li Peng, central bank governor Yi Gang, 64, and Guo Shuqing, 66, the head of China’s banking regulator have also exited from the C C.

Senior diplomat Yang Jiechi and Vice-Premier Liu He retired from the CC. 

However, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, 69, is among the new Central Committee members.  He took up the Politburo seat vacated by Yang Jiechi, who retired.

Once viewed as a top candidate for China’s uppermost echelon of leadership, Hu Chunhua, 59, Vice Premier, exited the Politburo. He has been an enforcer of Xi’s poverty alleviation project.

Breaking the age rule, General Zhang Youxia, 72, Vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, finds a place in the latest C C. to take up a superior position. But Vice-chairman General Xu Qiliang, Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe and Joint Staff Department chief General Li Zuocheng have all reached 68 and are absent from the new C C. General Miao Hua, chief of the CMC’s Political Work Department, and General Zhang Shengmin, head of military discipline, are still in the C C. Both are under 68.

Vice-premier Sun Chunlan, 72, the sole female Politburo member, retired without replacement. It is the first time in 25 years there has been no woman in the decision-making body.

Though age is still considered, cadres are evaluated according to a matrix of myriad factors including background and efficiency. One of the criteria for President Xi Jinping in picking his top team was the candidates’ ability to “struggle” with the West to circumvent sanctions and safeguard national security, according to state news agency Xinhua. “Party secretary Xi Jinping personally took charge of the planning and personally took charge of the gatekeeping,” the report said.

Appointments to central government positions will be finalized in March during the annual session of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament. Xi will assume another term of presidency then.

The new PB standing committee

The highest-ranking body in the state apparatus is the National People's Congress (NPC), which meets annually, typically in March. The NPC elects the president - a role which, since 1993, has been held by the Party's general secretary. The president in turn nominates the premier, ratified by the NPC, who presides over the State Council or the cabinet.

Xi would, upon completion of this extended tenure of five years, have ruled over China for longer than any leader barring Mao, who held power for 33 years.

Xi's appointment as Shanghai’s top official 15 years ago at the age of 53, set him up for a seat on the PSC at the party congress held in 2007. He and Li Keqiang jumped two spots to reach the Standing Committee, then, which is rare.

Held every five years, the Congress has three main tasks: to endorse leadership transitions; to approve changes to the party constitution, and to deliberate on policy issues. In all, 2,338 delegates represented almost 97 million Communist Party members. 

While Jiang Zemin, 96 and Zhu Rongji, 93, could not attend the Congress, Song Ping, 105, the most senior retired Politburo Standing Committee member was present.

In the Party hierarchy, the most important bodies are the NCCPC and the C C. The NCCPC elects the CC, while the general secretary, politburo, and Politburo Standing Committees are elected at the first plenum of the Central Committee held after the NCCPC.

Nested within the 25-member top body, Politburo is the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). New PSC members replace those who retire according to a convention, qishang baxia, or  “seven up, eight down”. The age of retirement is 68 years, and the oldest new entrant can be  67.

The changes this time resulted in a more homogeneous CC than ever in terms of age and experience. Members in their mid-50s and 60s occupy most of the seats in CC.

Blueprint for modernization

During these momentous changes, Xi gave China’s foreign policy a new direction than ever before. He also sought to increase Beijing’s global reach through his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Xi set priorities in a landmark 2013 speech to prevent China from meeting the same fate as the Soviet Union. Since rising to the top in 2012, Xi has cracked down on corruption in the CCP and introduced several new bodies in the party. As chair of China’s Central Military Commission, Xi controls the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). 

Following the Party’s 18th National Congress, Xi, as general secretary, set forth a series of original strategies for governance, and China’s economic development became much more balanced and sustainable. 

Xi's view that China faces a deteriorating external situation in its relations with the United States also set the scene.

China’s emergence as the second-largest economy with military might, over the last two decades, made the happenings at the Congress of compelling interest to the rest of the world. The Congress promised continuity, reorientation, and a paradigm shift in policy and governance.

The signals for changes to the long-term structural policy are in line with the major elements of Xi's thoughts in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Released in early 2021, it includes long-term objectives through 2035.

Hence, in his work report to the Congress, Xi said that the effort will be “to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization."

Xi observed that the next five years will be crucial for ensuring that the efforts to build a modern socialist country in all respects get off to a good start.

It is because China is now following a zero Covid policy. China set a modest growth target of 5.5 per cent this year, but the World Bank said last month it would be just 2.8 per cent, much lower than the 5.3 per cent for “developing East Asia and the Pacific outside of China”.

Add to it, there are also concerns about a global recession, which has been reflected in China’s real estate sector, which constitutes 30 per cent of the country’s GDP, and commercial banks are exposed to it.

Though Congress has not put forth macroeconomic policy solutions, it reiterated “Common Prosperity,” the slogan that Mao gave during China’s years of great impoverishment, Deng resurrected to justify the economic reforms of the 1980s, and Xi promoted. In Xi’s view, “Common Prosperity” will be achieved only by closing out inequalities.

Gradually, Mao’s dream is getting fulfilled. At the eighth Congress in May 1958, he envisaged an industrialized nation, which he summarized by the slogan, “Three Red Banners,’ ie, “go all out, aim high, and build socialism with greater, faster, better and more economical results.”

Taiwan and strategic deterrence

At the close of the Congress, the Party added, “fully, faithfully, and resolutely implementing the policy of One Country, Two Systems; resolutely opposing and deterring separatists seeking Taiwan independence" to its constitution, the first time such an explicit reference has been included in the document to address tensions around the island.

Hinting at the amendment, in his report to the Congress, Xi favoured a hardline approach to relations with the West, particularly over Taiwan.

On Taiwan, Xi reiterated striving for complete reunification in a peaceful way, but said "we will never promise to renounce the use of force". Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China's complete reunification is, for the Party, “a historic mission and an unshakable commitment”, he said.

He was obviously referring to the visit to Taiwan by the U S Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August which prompted China to launch military exercises around the island. 

He pointed out that “resolving the Taiwan issue is a matter for Chinese people themselves, and must be resolved by Chinese people alone.”

Xi has said in the past that "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fulfilled" by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would shatter US power in the western Pacific Ocean and beyond. Taiwan is part of the so-called "first island chain", which has been allied with the US for decades.

But, while the Congress was on, Taiwan signed a $77.8 million service contract with the U.S. to maintain the performance of its Patriot air-defence systems in intercepting missiles.  Under the five-year contract, which will expire at the end of 2027, the U.S. will send experts to Taiwan.

On Hong Kong and Macao, Xi said, China will implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, under which the people of Hong Kong administer Hong Kong and the people of Macao administer Macao. He warned that “we will crack down hard on anti-China elements who attempt to create chaos in Hong Kong and Macao”. 

Beijing imposed an all-out national security law in Hong Kong after the turmoil in 2019.

China also has territorial claims in the South China Sea. Its “nine-dash line” laying claim was ruled unlawful by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague in 2016, but Beijing has refused to recognise the decision.

The new PB standing committee members

Global Times reported that delegates from Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Southwest China's Xizang Autonomous Region spoke highly of Xi’s report to the Congress, vowing to fully implement the Party's guidelines.

At the Congress, without naming the U.S., Xi remarked: "China... resolutely opposes all forms of hegemony and power politics, opposes the Cold War mentality, opposes interfering in other countries domestic politics, opposes double standards," and  "will never seek hegemony and will never engage in expansion".

Just ahead of Congress, the American national security strategy issued by the Joe Biden Administration (US NSS) affirmed that China remains its greatest threat. In his foreword to the NSS, Biden says “Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown.” He names China, on the other hand, as “the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that objective”.

It means the Biden Administration now sees the Indo-Pacific as the principal strategic theatre.

On security, Xi said in his report: “We will establish a strong system of strategic deterrence, increase the proportion of new-domain forces with new combat capabilities, and speed up the development of unmanned, intelligent combat capabilities.”

The country’s 14th five-year plan report released last year emphasised the need to “build a high-standard strategic deterrence”.

Strategic deterrence is the will and ability to wield military power to prevent the use of force by another state and to dissuade adversaries from launching a nuclear attack.

And, China had become a nuclear power, exactly 58 years ago, on October 16, 1964.

The U.S. tried to show the crudest form of hegemony towards China by imposing tough export regulations targeting China’s semiconductor industry,  just before the Party Congress. It was a gesture designed to humiliate China. The sweeping new export controls are aimed at cutting off China from obtaining chips used in supercomputers. The sanctions prevent the sales and service by US businesses to Chinese chip manufacturers. Aware of this, Beijing has made contingency plans to deflect the U.S. action. The U.S. is concerned that Chinese chip manufacturers were rather closer to attaining parity with US technologies than previously thought.

The Netherlands’ AMSL is the world’s biggest supplier of advanced chipmaking gear, and Washington is threatening the company with exclusion from the US market unless it bans sales to China.

The West is also peeved by other strategies led by China. The leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the recent summit at Samarkand chalked out a road map to conduct bilateral trade and investment and issue bonds in local and national currencies instead of US dollars and UK Pounds or Euros, seeking an end to the dollar hegemony.

Former US President Donald Trump had deeply weaponised the dollar during Covid and trade with China was labelled a ‘war’. There have been unilateral sanctions placed on perceived threats and ‘enemy' countries. Countries like China, at the receiving end, have been preparing to hit back, and now it has become a reality.

The U.S. has a lot to worry about since it is the world's largest debtor nation, with an accumulated federal debt now topping $28 trillion. China holds $980.8 billion of U.S. Treasurys—3.2% of the total U.S. debt.

But, China is reducing its share in U.S. treasury bonds and preparing for currency swap facilities as part of the BRI and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with South-East Asian countries. Most of the ASEAN countries are ready for this.

China is already a heavyweight, with its $19 trillion economy. For more than a century, no U.S. adversary or coalition of adversaries had reached 60 per cent of the US GDP. And yet, China reached this milestone quietly in 2014. When one adjusts for the relative price of goods, China’s economy is already 25 per cent larger than the U.S. It is clear, then, that China is the most belligerent competitor that the U. S. has ever faced.

President Biden's absurd declaration that Covid is over, makes it clear that the U. S. economy is sick.

 Xiaokang-China shows the way

Contrary to the expectations of western analysts, Xi reiterated at the Congress that economic development is the Communist Party’s “top priority,” signalling that Beijing will continue to emphasize growth. “Development is the party’s top priority in governance,” he said.

Since Xi has been highlighting the need to balance security concerns with economic growth since 2020, Western analysts prophesied that Xi would drop the development-first focus. 

But in his report to Congress, Xi stuck to the party’s goal for per-capita GDP to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035. At the same time, he  mentioned  the need to “balance development with security."

He said that China has entered a period of development in which strategic opportunities, risks and challenges are concurrent and uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising.

Warning of various unpredictable dangerous events ("black swans") and foreseeable but unaddressed dangers ("grey rhinos") that may occur at any time, he urged Party members to be more mindful of potential dangers, be prepared to deal with worst-case scenarios, and be ready to "withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms".

Xi repeated the party’s key economic policies, including “dual circulation.” Dual circulation involves expanding domestic demand, focusing on the domestic market, improving the country's capacity for innovation, reducing dependence on foreign markets, and at the same time remaining open to the outside world. 

Xi and Li Qiang after the Congress

China has accomplished its first centenary goal of building xiaokang - a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2021 and to start the second centenary goal of building a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049.  "By xiaokang, we need to achieve a per capita GNP of $800", Deng Xiao Ping elaborated on multiple occasions.

Hard work brought dividends. China's GDP in 1952 was 67.9 billion yuan with per capita GDP at 119 yuan, while in 1978, the GDP increased to 367.9 billion yuan and the per capita GDP in that year was 385 yuan, according to a white paper on China's xiaokang issued in 2021.

At the same time, China's list of trading partners, which numbered in the 40s in 1978, grew to 231 economies in 2017. In 2010, China's per capita GDP tripled from India's $1,358.

Impact on Covid policy

China's zero Covid policy is one of Xi's landmark strategies and in the report to Congress, he said the policy was an "all-out people's war to stop the spread of the virus."

At a recent Politburo meeting, Xi said the issue should be viewed as long-term and systematic and, from a political perspective, in terms of the relationship between pandemic control and economic development. 

Congress didn't offer any policy changes like an easing of regulations and further cyclical stimulus. It was because the NCCPC is a forum for long-term structural policy, rather than short-term cyclical policy.

Alleviation of poverty

At the Congress, Xi said the Party “has won the largest battle against poverty in human history”.

While the West waited for China’s impoverishment, the country took the lead in alleviating poverty. There was a feeling of contentment in the Congress, because the World Bank’s latest report, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022, recognised China to have reduced poverty at historically unprecedented levels.

Intending to provide lessons to other developing countries, the World Bank and China’s Ministry of Finance undertook a study in 2019 to understand how China did it and the study was published earlier this year.

The World Bank found that during 1978 - 2019, China’s poverty headcount dropped from 770 million to 5.5 million people. China lifted 765 million people from extreme poverty in the past four decades.

It means, on average, every year China pulled 19 million poor people out of extreme poverty. In doing so, China accounted for almost 75 per cent of the global reduction in extreme poverty.

In 2021, China declared that it has eradicated extreme poverty.

Taken together, improvements in health, education, and income during this period are reflected in China’s rising position on the Human Development Index from 106 (out of 144 countries) in 1990 to 85 (out of 189 countries) in 2019.

It is a lesson for global policymakers, especially for India, because China is comparable to India in terms of population size. Perhaps, China’s achievement was churning the mind of Dattatreya Hosabale, general secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), when he lamented thus, recently: “Over 20 crore (200 million) people who live here (in India) are below the below poverty line. Around 23 crores (230 million) people are having (just) an income of Rs 375 ($4.5) per day. The unemployment rate is also very distressing at 7.6 per cent. There is poverty, and unemployment in the country but we also need to discuss the rising inequality.”

The RSS is the Hindu nationalist organization that moulded the character of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

To add to India’s woes, the latest edition of the Global Hunger Index report, released by Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe, based in Germany, ranked India 107th out of 121 countries that could be ranked and 136 countries that were assessed.  The Indian government responded by summarily dismissing the report, going so far as to claim that it was done to “taint India’s image”.

Against this backdrop, the 20th Party Congress was held on a strong foundation of scintillating achievements, and the march ahead for China will continue. Whether the West likes it or not, a $ 19.91 trillion economy and an assertive military will continue to make China, a formidable engine of growth and a compelling influencer of global happenings. 

The US-led West is in terminal decline and the space for global leadership has opened up for an Eastern coalition led by China. As Mao said, “the east wind is now prevailing over the west wind.” 

© Ramachandran