Friday 10 May 2024

CHINA'S DIPLOMATIC TOUR OF EUROPE

This is an article I wrote in China Pictorial


On his first visit to Europe in five years, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been intent on forging new relationships.


The three countries he chose to visit — France, Serbia and Hungary — are eager to strengthen economic ties within China.


In the past six months, President of France Emmanuel Macron has visited both India and Brazil in an attempt to place his country at a fulcrum between the BRICS group of developing countries. At a time of growing distance between the "Global South" and Western powers, France is a bridge for China.


China was the biggest investor of Serbia last year, as well as its second-largest trading partner, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has backed the inflow of huge Chinese investment.


China- France Trade


Beyond these comrades, Europe has differences with Beijing, whose economy was the same size as the EU's when Xi visited in 2019. China now boasts of an economy that is 15% bigger. At the same time, Xi's visit could help to mitigate Europe's tendency of "de-risking" from China.


Xi's visit to France marked the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two. In January, the Franco-Chinese year of cultural tourism was launched, bolstering cultural co-operation.


France's early recognition of the potential of China’s expanding market as a trading partner made France the first major Western country to establish diplomatic relations with China.  Cementing this camaraderie, China and France signed a number of agreements in areas such as nuclear energy and agriculture. 


France's Airbus is in talks with China over a major aircraft order. China's "Big Three" state airlines have pledged to buy 292 Airbus jets. 


China exported $2.81B and imported $2.24B from France in February 2024, resulting in a positive trade balance of $573M. The exports of China have increased by $143M (5.37%) from $2.67B to $2.81B, between February 2023 and February 2024, while imports decreased by $-1.01B (-31.1%) from $3.25B to $2.24B.


The increase was in semiconductor devices ($36.1M or 58.1%), electrical transformers ($33M or 82.5%), and gas turbines ($17.4M or 51.9%). The decrease in imports was in wheat ($-106M or -61.7%), packaged Medicaments ($-81M or -41%), and beauty products ($-76M or -22.8%).


Xi with Macron


On the diplomatic front, Macron had pulled out a bold surprise in his China trip last year, by calling for "strategic autonomy" on the Taiwan question, triggering a heated discussion within Europe. Prior to Xi’s visit this time, Macron appealed for more integrated European defenses and said the continent must not become a vassal of the U.S., as he outlined his vision for an independent Europe in a speech at Sorbonne.


The Broader Perspective


Xi’s visit to Serbia, first in eight years, is significant within the cooperation framework of China and Central and Eastern European countries and the BRI. The visit to Hungary coincided with the 75th anniversary of China-Hungary diplomatic relations.


Serbian President Vucic and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban attended the third Belt and Road International Forum for Cooperation in Beijing last October. 


BRI helped breathe new life into a century-old Smederevo steel plant in Serbia, which was suffering from an uncertain future. In April 2016, Chinese firm, HeSteel group bought the plant for $ 51.9 million, introduced more than 20 new technologies and management systems and reused waste materials to produce better quality steel. The plant became Serbia's largest exporter in 2018. In 2023, it received the Green Agenda award jointly conferred by the European Union and the UN Development Program.


Hungary is one of China's most important trading partners in Central and Eastern Europe. Bilateral trade reached $15.52 billion in 2022, an increase of 84 percent from 2013.


Since the start of this year, a broader series of high-level engagements between China and the EU have been in the making.


In January, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo embarked on his first trip to China and signed a number of cooperation documents on the economy, trade, agriculture and food. In late March, Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte traveled to China, with a willingness to deepen partnership in economy and trade. In April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reached China, accompanied by three federal ministers and a business delegation. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is planning to visit China later this year.


Hypocrisy Exposed


Szijjarto, the Hungarian foreign minister, sees the actions taken by some European countries against China as "hypocritical." 


He is right. The de-risking narrative proposed by the European Commission in its policy framework toward China echoes Washington's "decoupling from China" rhetoric. 


Last year, the EU launched an anti-subsidy investigation into electric-vehicle imports from China. Recently, the European Commission launched a probe into Chinese public procurement of medical devices, following an unprecedented probe in February into a Chinese trainmaker for allegedly using subsidies to undercut European suppliers.


The EU accounts for nearly 40 percent of China's electric vehicle exports. Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce of China, said during his trip to France in early April that the accusations by the U.S. and Europe regarding Chinese EVs are baseless.


There is competition between China and Europe, in EVs. But, Europe should view China as an opportunity rather than a challenge, at a time when the European Investment Bank has cautioned that the Ukraine crisis has disrupted trade and aggravated inflation for basic goods like energy, food and metals in Europe.


Europe is still mired in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a "trap of its own making." It has made Europe realize its high dependence on the U.S., and it has jeopardized Europe's China policy. If Europe continues to follow the U.S. view and takes a confrontational approach toward China, it would remain a U.S. vassal.


In this backdrop, the European tour of Xi will be closely monitored in Washington. Greek economist and politician Yanis Varoufakis has pointed out that the visit will offer Europe the opportunity to demonstrate that they have retained some capacity to look after their countries' interests rather than following Washington's orders. Hence, this is the right time for Europe to stand up.


Article in China Pictorial: http://china-pictorial.com.cn/chinas-diplomatic-tour-of-europe



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