Paving the Way to a Carbon-Neutral Future
By Rama Chandran
This article of mine was published in the September-October 2021 issue of the China-India Dialogue.
At the recently concluded COP26 (UN Climate Change
Conference of the Parties) summit, India pledged to reach net-zero carbon
emissions by 2070, a date two decades beyond the target set by COP26 organizers
and the host, the U.K. India also vowed to reduce the carbon intensity of its
economy by 45%. India had five climate-related pledges, including meeting
50% of its energy needs by renewable means by 2030.
India is the world's third-largest carbon emitter, behind
China and the U.S. India represents 17% of the world's population and 5 per cent of the carbon emissions. Russia and Japan share the
fourth and fifth places respectively. China emits 10.06 billion metric tons of
carbon dioxide a year, while the U.S. follows with 5.41, India 2.65, Russia
1.7, and Japan 1.6 MT. Measured
per person, however, India's emissions are ranked 140th globally. The
U. S. is 14th, and China, 48th.
The landmark Paris accord was signed by nearly 200 countries in
2015 to limit rising global temperatures to two degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to cap heating to 1.5 degrees
Celsius. But to do so, the world needs to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions
in the next eight years and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This
threshold is a crucial global target because so-called tipping points become more likely beyond this level. Tipping points refer to an
irreversible change in the climate system, locking further global heating.
As the world confronts a changing climate, it looks for direction at the
Asian superpowers, India and China. Their decisions could
either doom the efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions or jump-start them.
Daily emissions globally decreased by as much as 17 per cent during the COVID. According to Carbon Brief, India's carbon dioxide emissions fell by 30 per cent in April 2020, compared
with the same month in 2019. But India's emissions
are set to rise in the years ahead as economic growth propels the energy demand. Emissions in India grew 1.8 per cent in 2019, at a
much slower pace than in 2018.
India is the only major country in the world where actions to
combat emissions are compatible with limiting global warming to an
average of 2 degrees Celsius, according
to Climate Action Tracker. Indian officials say they will meet two
significant pledges under the Paris agreement on climate change ahead of schedule. India has promised to ensure that 40 per cent of its electricity-generation
capacity comes from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. It will also reduce its "emissions
intensity" — a ratio of total emissions to gross domestic product — by at least
one-third compared with 2005 levels. India has increased its solar-energy
capacity more than
twelvefold since 2014 and launched initiatives to save electricity. Coal will remain a
significant part of India's power sector in the coming decades too.
In 2018, India installed almost as much new
solar generating capacity as the U. S. did. India would double its target for
installed renewable-energy capacity to 450 gigawatts.
The
Chinese plan
Like India, China's aim for net-zero is also well beyond the 2050
target.
China has made two significant pledges under the Paris accord, to
reduce its emissions intensity by at least 60 per cent by 2030 and to generate
20 per cent of its power from non-fossil fuels. China has promised to
become carbon neutral before 2060 and begin cutting its emissions within
the next ten years. During the COP26 summit, the Chinese President said that China
would vigorously develop renewable energy and build wind and solar power
stations. Ahead of the COP26 conference, China released an ambitious action plan to
peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. According to it, the share of
non-fossil energy consumption will be about 25 per cent, and carbon dioxide
emissions per unit of GDP will drop by more than 65 per cent compared to 2005
levels. China's State Council has put forward the main objectives for the
14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) and the 15th Five-Year Plan period
(2026-2030), which includes increasing the share of non-fossil energy
consumption, improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
The action
plan outlines vital tasks, including promoting green and low-carbon
transportation, advancing a circular economy and supporting technological
innovation. China will develop a unified and standardized carbon emissions
statistical accounting system, improve laws, regulations and standards, optimize
economic policies, and establish sound market mechanisms. For international
cooperation, China will be involved in global climate governance, carry out
green cooperation in its economy, trade, technology and finance, and advance
the construction of the Belt and Road initiative.
On October 12, while addressing the leaders' summit of the 15th meeting of
Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Chinese
President said that it will implement a "1N" policy framework for
carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The country has begun constructing
100-million-kw wind, photovoltaic power projects in desert areas.
How can China reach carbon
neutrality before 2060? Planners point out that China must begin to
generate most of its electricity from zero-emission sources and then expand
the use of this clean power wherever possible, such as switching to
electric cars.
By 2030, 40
per cent of vehicles sold in China will be electric. The government has adopted policies to encourage plug-in electric
vehicles (EVs). Since buying an EV costs more, in 2009, the government began to
provide subsidies for EV purchases. But paying for the contributions became costly, and China's policymakers planned to phase out the donations at the end of 2020
and instead impose a mandate on car manufacturers. The order requires that a
certain percentage of all vehicles sold by a manufacturer each year be
battery-powered. Every year, manufacturers must earn a stipulated number of
points awarded for each EV produced based on a formula that
considers range, energy efficiency, and performance.
It will also need
technologies to capture CO2 released from burning fossil fuels or
biomass and store it underground, known as carbon capture and storage (CCS). China
currently has only one large CCS facility. Seven more are being planned.
For China to achieve
its target, electricity production would need to more than double, to 15,034
terawatt-hours by 2060. This would be driven by a massive ramp-up of renewable
electricity generation over the next 40 years, including a 16-fold increase in
solar and a 9-fold increase in wind. Nuclear power would need to increase 6- fold, and hydroelectricity to
double to replace coal-fired power generation. Fossil fuels, including coal, oil and gas, would still account for
16 per cent of the energy consumed, so they would need to be paired with CCS or offset by
new forest growth and technologies that can suck CO2 directly out of the
atmosphere.
Tsinghua University's
Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development has led a major national project on China's low-carbon future. The work was presented
at a meeting attended by environment
officials on October 12. Under the plan, emissions would continue to rise,
from 9.8 gigatons of CO2 in 2020 to around 10.3 gigatons in 2025. They
will then plateau for five to ten years before dropping steeply after 2035 to
reach net-zero by 2060. If trends in the cost of renewables technology
continue, more than 60 per cent of China's electricity could come from
non-fossil fuels by 2030.
The Energy Research
Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in Beijing estimates
the emissions to peak in 2022, at around 10 gigatons of CO2, followed by a
steep drop to net-zero by 2050. To achieve net-zero, electricity
production would double to 14,800 terawatt-hours by 2050. This output would be generated mainly by nuclear power (28%), followed by wind (21%), solar (17%),
hydropower (14%) and biomass (8%). Coal and gas would make up 12 per cent of
electricity production. This means that China's nuclear capacity —
currently 49 gigawatts across some 50 nuclear power plants — would need to
increase 5-fold to 554 gigawatts by 2050. This model proposes that some 850
gigawatts of power generated from coal, gas and biofuels could be fitted with
technologies that capture and store carbon emissions.
Coal-fired power
accounts for almost 65 per cent of the country's electricity generation, with more than 200 new coal-fired power stations. In making the
shift from coal, China needs to consider the economic security of some 3.5
million workers in the coal mining and power industry. The Chinese
President has said that the country would phase down coal consumption in its
15th five-year plan, which starts after 2025.
The Somersault by the U.S.
In 2017, President Trump announced that he was withdrawing the U. S. from
the Paris climate agreement, a move that nullified the country's commitment to
cut emissions. But the U.S. is now trying to plunge back into the climate fight. President
Biden addressed a virtual climate
summit in April 2021, attended by the leaders of three dozen
countries. Japan set a goal of reducing emissions by 46 per cent by 2030. South Korea pledged to end public financing for new
overseas coal-fired power plants. Among the most substantial pledges was the European
Union's 55% reduction, which was codified into law in April 2021. The U.K.
boosted its target to 78 per cent by 2035. Russia made a promise to
"significantly reduce the net accumulated emissions by 2050."
The U.S. announced that it would cut its planet-warming
emissions by 50 to 52 per cent by 2030. The U.S. carbon goal still falls 5 to 10
percentage points short of what's needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate
change. The environmental groups were disappointed that Biden didn't provide a
timeline for phasing out the use of fossil fuels. U.S. climate envoy John
Kerry has acknowledged scepticism from world leaders who
questioned whether Biden's promises would endure.
© Ramachandran
