INDIA OPPOSES CHINA'S BRI AT SCO SUMMIT

India also opposes the strategy for 2030

The recent 23rd Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, virtually hosted by India, discussed some key issues including regional security, economic connectivity and trade. It also saw the inclusion of Iran as a new member and opened the chapter for Belarus’ membership. While Belarus and Mongolia were invited as observer states, Turkmenistan was invited as the guest of the chair.

The summit was joined by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and leaders from four central Asian countries.

The theme of India’s SCO presidency is “SECURE,” which stands for security, economic development, connectivity, unity, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and environmental protection.

New Delhi declaration

The summit issued a joint communique New Delhi Declaration, along with two separate joint statements, one on “cooperation in countering radicalisation leading to separatism, extremism, terrorism,” and the other on “digital transformation.” The Heads of State Council approved the SCO Economic Development Strategy for 2030.

Leaders decided to forge closer ties within the expanding Eurasian bloc but stressed the group is not directed against any other states.

The joint declaration said SCO members oppose bloc, ideological and confrontational approaches to address problems and security challenges. Without referring to NATO’s expansion and Western military assistance to Ukraine, the leaders were critical of the negative impact of “unilateral and unlimited expansion of global missile defence systems by certain countries or groups of countries.”

It called for an inclusive government in Afghanistan with the participation of representatives of all ethnic, religious and political groups in Afghan society.

The SCO Heads of State Council approved the Concept of Cooperation between the member states to decarbonise transport and promote digital transformation and innovative technologies to achieve greater efficiency and sustainability.

It also adopted decisions on the Regulation of the Executive Committee of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure and the signing of a Memorandum between the SCO Secretariat and the United Nations Environment Programme.

With the inclusion of Iran, PM Modi proposed an increase in the use of Chabahar Port, located in southeastern Iran, on the Gulf of Oman, for trade and other economic activities. India feels that the International North-South Transport Corridor can serve as a secure and efficient route for landlocked countries in Central Asia to access the Indian Ocean.

Modi said that India would be delighted to share India's AI-based language platform Bhashini with everyone to remove language barriers within SCO.

Referring to Pakistan, Modi said, "Some countries use cross-border terrorism as an instrument of their policies and provide shelter to terrorists. SCO should not hesitate to criticize such nations. There should be no place for double standards on such serious matters."

In an attempt to corner India, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif said, "There can be no justification for the killing of innocent people, regardless of the cause or pretext. Similarly, religious minorities should never be demonized in the pursuit of domestic political agendas."

Sharif's statement comes at a time when there are reports of Pakistan persecuting minorities.

In May, Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari visited India to attend a key multilateral meeting of the SCO in Goa, and he was the first Pakistan foreign minister to visit India since 2011.

President Xi warned against attempts to foment a new 'Cold War’. He highlighted the significance of upholding multilateralism. He called upon the leaders of Russia, Iran, and other member states to resist sanctions.

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In his first international meeting since the Wagner mutiny, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that sanctions imposed by US-led Western countries are making Russia stronger. He told the summit that Russia would stand up against Western pressure, sanctions and "provocations". Russia views countries such as China, India and Iran as key partners in confronting the United States and resisting what it portrays as U.S. attempts to dictate the world order.

Spat over BRI

India, which holds the presidency of SCO and the G20 this year, is walking a diplomatic tightrope as relations between the West and a Russia-China partnership have been fraught due to the Ukraine war, and Beijing's growing clout in global geopolitics.

At the summit, all members except India supported China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which rebuilt the old Silk Road to connect China with Asia, Europe and beyond. Also, India did not sign the SCO Development Strategy for 2030, because the document "had too many Chinese catchphrases."

The New Delhi Declaration included a paragraph reaffirming support for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which India refused to sign. Earlier too, India had declined to sign the paragraph during the Samarkand declaration in 2022.

India also raised the connectivity issue. "Strong connectivity is crucial for the progress of any region. Better connectivity not only enhances mutual trade but also fosters mutual trust. However, in these efforts, it is essential to uphold the basic principles of the SCO charter, particularly respecting the sovereignty and regional integrity of the Member States," Modi said.

All SCO members, barring India and Russia, are part of BRI, which India objects to, since a major part of its project in Pakistan runs through the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

On Modi referring to the BRI, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said, "The references to sovereignty and territorial integrity came both in the context of the SCO charter and also in the context of the connectivity projects.”

However, Xi Jinping defended BRI and said, "China will hold the third 'Belt and Road' International Cooperation Summit Forum. All parties are welcome to participate in the activities of the forum and jointly pave the road to happiness that benefits the world."

Commenting on CPEC, Sharif said, "The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship project of the BRI, can be a force multiplier not only for regional connectivity but also for regional stability, peace and prosperity."

Against the West

China’s focus at the summit, however, was the West, as was that of Russia, and India’s protest over BRI is not a worrying factor.

Hence, Xi said, “We uphold international fairness and justice, oppose hegemonic and bullying practices, expand the "circle of friends" of the organization, and build a partnership of dialogue rather than confrontation and partnership rather than alliance, strengthening the progressive force for maintaining world peace and stability.”

Both Xi and Putin pushed for switching to a system under which foreign trade could be settled in local currencies, a move that helps get around the use of the U.S. dollar, especially in the aftermath of sanctions following the Ukraine war.

India has refused to blame Russia for the war and has lifted bilateral trade largely by purchases of Russian oil to a record high, irking the West.

In his briefing, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said, "The Russian president spoke of rumble-yuan exchange. We have also been supporting trading in national currencies."

Both Xi and Putin are expected to visit New Delhi in September as India hosts the G20 summit, and U. S. President Joe Biden and leaders of other member nations are also likely to be present.

The SCO summit took place barely two weeks after Modi was hosted by President Biden during a state visit, and the two countries called themselves "among the closest partners in the world".

And, China has repeatedly cautioned India, not to fall into the American trap. India is well aware that China is driving the relationship between India and the U.S. It is the only reason why Washington feted Modi. Hence, India would never throw its full weight behind Biden, if the China-U. S. confrontation escalates into a stand-off. India is just seeking to leverage its warming ties with the U.S. to its advantage. For India, camaraderie with China is precious, as a neighbour and both are civilizational nations.

Edited article in China-India Dialogue : 

http://chinaindiadialogue.com/expanding-the-sco-fostering-cooperation-and-connectivity

SCO FOR INDIA, CHINA AND THE WORLD

The global order has to be more reasonable

As the leaders of China, Russia, and India, with the new member Iran, huddled together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit at Samarkand in Uzbekistan, the West waited on pins and needles to gauge and interpret the outcome.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi were among the leaders of the 15 countries at the summit.

Both Xi’s and Modi’s presence were closely watched for the possibility of bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit. The last time Xi and Modi were face-to-face and in-person and had a bilateral meeting was in November 2019, during the BRICS summit in Brazil. Both met in an informal summit at Mahabalipuram, India, in October 2019, the second one after they met at Wuhan, in April 2018.

The SCO summits in the last two years were held in a virtual format due to COVID-19. This was the first in-person summit after June 2019 when the SCO summit was held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Last year, the summit was held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in a hybrid format.

Modi with Putin and Xi

This was Xi’s first official trip to a foreign nation since COVID-19. Xi’s last official trip to a foreign country was to Myanmar in January 2020. His last trip outside of mainland China was on June 30, 2022, to Hong Kong to mark the 25th anniversary of the city’s return to the motherland in 1997.

Xi’s trip to Samarkand underlined China’s strategic ties with Central Asian states at a time when relations with many Western nations have come under strain due to China’s neutral position on the Ukrainian issue.

Xi and Putin met on the sidelines of the summit, for the first time since the Ukraine crisis. Xi said China and Russia should expand pragmatic cooperation, while Putin thanked the Chinese leader for his “balanced” stance on Ukraine. Putin expressed Russia's support for the one-China principle, and denounced US provocations in the Taiwan Straits and its attempts to create a "unipolar world."

Samarkand summit saw agreements on connectivity and high-efficiency transport corridors and a roadmap for local currency settlement among member states. It deliberated on the geopolitical situation arising from Ukraine. Besides, the situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime was on the table as well since many SCO member countries are neighbours of Afghanistan.

After the signing of the Samarkand declaration, the heads of the SCO countries declared the inadmissibility of interference in the affairs of states under the pretext of countering terrorism. The SCO countries supported the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the continuation of nuclear disarmament.

The Samarkand declaration also termed unilateral use of economic sanctions, except those imposed by the UN Security Council, is incompatible with international law principles. The SCO countries emphasized the importance of the soonest inclusive reform of WTO with an emphasis on adaptation to current economic realities.

The declaration advocated a “commitment to peaceful settlement of differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation.”

Uzbekistan and China signed agreements worth a total of US$15 billion in trade, investment and financial and technical cooperation. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan also signed a trilateral MOU regarding cooperation on a railway connecting the three countries, while a trial run of the multimodal road-rail link from China to Afghanistan is also being planned.

To further promote the rich cultural and historical heritage of the people and the tourism potential of SCO member states, it was decided to declare Varanasi, Modi's constituency, as the SCO Tourism and Cultural Capital for 2022-2023, the Samarkand declaration said.

The Mission of SCO

Founded in Shanghai in June 2001, the Beijing-headquartered SCO is a nine-member economic and security bloc consisting of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan and now Iran. It has three Observer States interested in acceding to full membership (Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia) and nine Dialogue Partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt).

It is a unique plurilateral grouping that holds two summits a year, one at the Heads of State and the other at the Heads of Government level. It is seen by the West as an eastern counterbalance to NATO. The presence of India and China, the world’s most populous countries, makes SCO the organization with the largest population coverage. The SCO accounts for about one-third of the world’s land and exports trillions of dollars annually.

The SCO, which grew from the “Shanghai Five” pact of the mid-1990s, is governed by consensus. It also functions more as a venue for discussion and engagement where high-level dignitaries from across the region can gather to confer, rather than an alliance like the EU, whose members have a common currency, or NATO. Since its inception, the SCO has mainly focused on regional security issues, and its fight is against regional terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism. The SCO’s priorities also include regional development.

The Dushanbe Declaration on the 20th anniversary of the founding of the SCO last year expressed support for Afghanistan as an independent, neutral, united, democratic and peaceful state, free of terrorism, war and drugs. It is critical to have an inclusive government in Afghanistan, with representatives from all ethnic, religious and political groups of Afghan society.

Summit

The declaration also condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. Member States reaffirmed the need to step up joint efforts to prevent terrorism and its financing, including by implementing existing global standards on combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism and by suppressing the spread of terrorist, separatist and extremist ideologies that feed it.

The declaration emphasized the importance of sharing experiences on the design and implementation of national development strategies, digital economy plans and the adoption of innovative technologies. It stressed the need to increase mutually beneficial cooperation in the energy sector, including the wide use of renewable and alternative energy sources.

The Entry of Iran

The SCO Samarkand Summit also assumed significance as Iran, for the first time, attended as a full member. The decision to admit Iran was made at last year’s Dushanbe Summit and Belarus has submitted its membership application. This was the first expansion of the SCO after India and Pakistan were admitted to the grouping in 2017.

This marks the first time Iran has become a full member of a major regional bloc since its 1979 revolution. Iran’s bid to become a full member of SCO was approved after almost 15 years. The country had been an “observer member” since 2005. Full membership means linking Iran to the economic infrastructures of Asia and its vast resources.

Iran is eyeing political and economic gains, especially with China, with which it signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement in March 2021, and Russia, with which Iran is looking to expand a pre-existing cooperation agreement. Iran could gain significant access to the Central Asian region, which can be regarded as a market for exports of Iranian goods.

U.S. sanctions could prove to be roadblocks on the way to achieving those potentials should they persist, but will not halt Iran’s economic progress. Iran and world powers have conducted six rounds of talks in Vienna to restore the country’s 2015 nuclear deal, which, if successful, would see U.S. sanctions lifted.

Iran’s previous bids for SCO membership were blocked because it was under United Nations sanctions, and some members, including Tajikistan, were against it due to Tehran’s perceived support for the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan.

Article in China-India Dialogue

But at the Dushanbe Summit last year, Iran also signed eight agreements with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon. The two set a target of US$500 million for annual bilateral trade. During a speech at Dushanbe, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi denounced “unilateralism” by the U.S. and called for a concerted effort to fight sanctions.

SCO members are reluctant to entangle themselves in Iran’s rivalries and at Dushanbe, they also admitted Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt as “dialogue partners” in a balancing act.

The volume of trade with the national currencies of Iran, Russia and China has been modest even as they have discussed de-dollarization for decades, and efforts are on to launch an alternative financial messaging service to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) global financial network.

This round of expansion shows SCO’s rising international influence and the principles of the SCO charter are widely accepted. The SCO expansion is not akin to that of NATO, which is being expanded in the shadows of the Ukrainian crisis. The expansion of NATO is different as the SCO is a cooperative organization based on non-alignment and not targeting a third party, while NATO is based on a Cold War mindset.

The SCO believes one should not build its security at the expense of other countries while NATO is creating new enemies to sustain its existence. The SCO members are contemplating how to adapt to the profound changes in the global milieu, to make the global order more reasonable.

The process of Belarus's accession to the SCO has been made at Samarkand Summit. It has had a dialogue partner status since 2010 and an observer status since 2015. The new decision does not mean an automatic change in the status of the country. According to the provision on SCO accession of 11 June 2010, an applying country should join around 40 international treaties and make respective changes in the national legislation. It took around two years for India and Pakistan to carry out these procedures.

Negotiations will be held on granting UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Maldives and Myanmar the status of dialogue partners.

SCO for India and China

As a prelude to the Samarkand Summit, the disengagement between India and China in the Gogra-Hot Springs region opened a window of opportunity for the two sides to engage at the highest level.

India assumed the rotational presidency of the SCO at the end of the Samarkand Summit. Delhi will hold the presidency of the grouping for a year until September 2023. So, next year, India will host the SCO summit.

Modi, speaking at the Samarkand summit said he wants to transform India into a manufacturing hub. He pointed out that there are more than 70,000 start-ups and over 100 unicorns in India, and that the country is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The SCO’s significance for India mainly lies in economics and geopolitics with the Eurasian states. It is a potential platform to advance India’s Central Asia policy. The SCO member states are India’s extended neighbourhood where India has both economic and security interests.

The SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group to stabilize Afghanistan provides India with a vital counter to some other groupings it is a part of. The SCO provides the only multilateral platform for India to deal with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Leaders at Samarkand

Acknowledging the strategic importance of the region and SCO, Modi has articulated the foundational dimension of Eurasia as being “secure.” India needs to improve connectivity with Central Asia through the Chabahar port in Southeastern Iran and it wishes to utilize the Ashgabat Agreement for a stronger presence in Eurasia along with a focus on the International North-South Corridor (INSTC).

The Ashgabat Agreement is a multimodal transport agreement between the governments of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, India, Pakistan, and Oman for creating an international transport and transit corridor facilitating the transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. The agreement came into force in April 2016. Ashgabat in Turkmenistan is the depository state for the agreement.

The SCO has also been involved in building the Vladivostok-Chennai sea route. This sea route covers approximately 5,600 nautical miles or about 10,300 km. A large container ship travelling at the average cruising speed of 20-25 knots, or 37-46 km/hour, should be able to cover the distance in 10-12 days. India is building nuclear power plants with Russia’s collaboration in Kudankulam on the sea coast in Tamil Nadu’s Tirunelveli district. The opening of a sea route is likely to help in the project.

India also wishes to use SCO’s goal of promoting economic cooperation, trade, energy, and regional connectivity to improve relations with Pakistan and persuade it to unblock India’s access to Eurasia.

The increasing terrorist activities in the region make it imperative for SCO countries to develop a cooperative and sustainable security framework and make the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure more effective.

A major thorn in India’s engagement with Eurasia remains the denial of direct land connectivity to Afghanistan and beyond by Pakistan. The lack of connectivity has dampened the development of energy ties between the hydrocarbon-rich region and India.

But China is clearly in the strongest position. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have signed on to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and those like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are dependent on Chinese investments. China accounts for 45.3 per cent of Kyrgyzstan's external debt, and China has built a military base there recently. It is to be owned by Tajikistan’s Rapid Reaction Group (Special Forces) with the US$10 million costs financed by China. It will be located in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous province near the Pamir mountains. Chinese troops will not be stationed there.  

Loans from China account for 16 -17 per cent of the GDP of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

And Kazakhstan, which borders China’s northwestern Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, traditionally leaned towards Russia – in January it called on Moscow for assistance to quell mass protests – it is also interested in China and its “deep pockets.” Its support, as a Muslim country, is important for China.

On 25 January 2022,  Xi Jinping hosted the five leaders of Central Asia to commemorate the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Central Asian countries. In this Summit, China announced to increase in the trade target between China and the region to USD 70 billion by 2030. A provision of USD 500 million was made to assist Central Asian countries over the next three years in their implementation of “socially significant” projects.  The Central Asian region is rich in natural resources: gas in Turkmenistan; oil, gas and uranium in Kazakhstan; uranium and gas in Uzbekistan; hydropower in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

On its part, keeping its independent diplomacy, India had stayed away from the trade pillar of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) meeting in Los Angeles on September 8-9. India’s Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal cited concerns over possible discrimination against developing economies. India was the only one of the 14 IPEF countries, which include Southeast Asian countries, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, not to join the declaration on trade. It means New Delhi will not be cheated by Washington easily.

Hence, SCO, like BRICS, is a vehicle for India and China to co-exist peacefully for the current era to be viewed as the Asian century. Towards that goal, the Samarkand Summit is a new milestone.

This article was published in China Pictorial: http://china-pictorial.com.cn/scos-growing-influence-in-a-multipolar-world

China-IndiaDialogue: http://chinaindiadialogue.com/scos-growing-influence-in-a-multipolar-world

© Ramachandran 

DOLLAR HEGEMONY OVER, A NEW ROAD MAP IN VIEW

 SCO Summit Decides on a New Course of Action

The leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the recent summit at Samarkand have decided to conduct bilateral trade and investment and issue bonds in local and national currencies instead of US dollars and UK Pounds or Euros.

The group - which comprises China, India, Russia, Pakistan and Iran alongside four Central Asian states - in a declaration said "interested SCO member states" had agreed on a "roadmap for the gradual increase in the share of national currencies in mutual settlements", and called for an expansion of the practice.

The declaration did not say who the "interested states" were. It is significant that Iran, like Russia, subject to broad international economic and financial sanctions, has also joined the SCO and is an oil-producing country.

Both China and Moscow are the driving force behind the push toward national currencies as it tries to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar and other Western currencies for trade following the imposition of sweeping new Western sanctions in response to the Ukraine crisis.

In his speech at the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping said: "We need to ensure implementation of the roadmap for SCO member states to expand shares of local currency settlement, better develop the system for cross-border payment and settlement in local currencies, work for the establishment of an SCO development bank, and thus speed up regional economic integration".

The Chinese yuan became the most traded currency on the Moscow Exchange for the first time on October 4, 2022, with trading turnover in the yuan-ruble pair reaching 70.3 billion rubles ($1.17 billion), surpassing the 68.2 billion rubles for the dollar-ruble pair. A total of 64,900 transactions were made using the yuan-ruble pair, compared with 29,500 for the dollar-ruble pair on the same day. The yuan also overtook trading in the euro-ruble pair, which recorded a trading volume of 47.5 billion rubles.

In the first eight months of 2022, trade between China and Russia totalled $117.2 billion, up 31.4 percent year on year.

In early September, China and Russia reportedly signed an agreement to switch trade payments for gas supplies to China to the yuan and the ruble based on a 50-50 split, instead of the dollar, paving the way for a more frequent ruble-yuan usage in bilateral trade.

In the first week of September, the Russian gas producer Gazprom said China would pay for half its Russian gas supplies in rubles and half in Chinese yuan. Previous contracts have been denominated in euros or dollars, the dominant reference currency for the global oil trade.

In August, Russia's largest gold miner, PJSC Polyus, completed the issuance of 4.6 billion yuan in bonds, less than one month after Russian aluminium company Rusal issued 4 billion yuan-denominated bonds in the Russian market. The bonds were listed on the Moscow Exchange with a coupon rate of 3.8 percent. The bond underwriter was Gazprombank.

The issuance of foreign-currency bonds means China is a strong economy, has stable financial and monetary policies and a large capital market volume. 

Russian firms and banks were involved in almost 4 percent of international yuan payments by value in July. That was an increase from 1.42 percent the previous month and zero in February when the Russia-Ukraine conflict began.

Yuan-ruble trading volumes have soared 1,067% since the Ukraine crisis, though this is broadly seen as a sign of the allies strengthening ties to help weaken the influence of the US.

Most recently, the People's Bank of China announced it is developing a yuan reserve with the Bank for International Settlements and five other nations, including Singapore and Hong Kong. Each of the members will contribute about 15 billion yuan, or $2.2 billion. 

Also, China will push for the expanded use of the digital yuan from the first four trial cities -- Shenzhen in South China's Guangdong Province, Suzhou in East China's Jiangsu Province, Xiongan New Area in North China's Hebei Province and Chengdu in Southwest China's Sichuan Province -- to province-wide testing, to ramp up the innovation of the digital yuan.

China's Ministry of Finance and the Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) government have jointly announced a plan to issue yuan-denominated treasury bonds worth 3 billion yuan in Macau on September 7, a move to strengthen financial cooperation between the Chinese mainland and the SAR. And, the Ministry of Finance issued yuan-denominated treasury bonds worth 5 billion yuan in the Hong Kong SAR on August 10.

India is planning to buy Russian oil at discounted prices and even consider the Chinese yuan as a reference currency in an India-Russia payment settlement mechanism. Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales in yuan.

According to bankers, imports from Russia can be paid in yuan via multiple mechanisms. One way is that an India-based bank exchanges US dollars for yuan from its offshore branches in China or Hong Kong.

Another way is for an India-based bank to tie up with a Chinese bank for settlements. It is also possible for an Indian company to directly take a loan in yuan from a China-based bank.

Most state-run banks send dollars to their offshore branches in Singapore, Hong Kong or China.

In June, some 30% of the payments by Indian entities for the commodity were in the Chinese yuan and 28% in the Hong Kong dollar. The euro accounted for under a quarter and the UAE dirham around a sixth.

In July, Russia became India’s third-largest coal supplier with record imports of 2.06 million tonnes.

UltraTech is importing "157,000 tons of coal from Russian producer SUEK that is loaded on the bulk carrier MV Mangas from the Russian Far East port of Vanino," an Indian customs document reviewed by Reuters shows, while the settlement currency is in yuan, with the total cargo valued at 172,652,900 yuan ($25.81 million).

The Road Map

Details and a road map against the US dollar had been finalized and signed at SCO’s Finance Ministers’ meeting in Moscow as early as March 2020, after which the plan was temporarily shelved due to COVID. Representatives from the finance ministries and central banks of China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan attended the Moscow conference. In addition, Iran, Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia were also present as observer nations.

During the meeting, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that "each SCO member decide whether they want to use the dollar for transactions, but facts are enough that this currency is unreliable".

The currency roadmap was also agreed upon at the  15 July 2022 meeting of the SCO countries’ industry ministers in Tashkent, as well.

The SCO is the largest regional organisation in the world in terms of geographical coverage and population, covering three-fifths of the Eurasian continent and nearly half of the human population. The new measure will contribute to the stability of monetary systems and the security of the financial activities of the SCO  countries.

Retaliation Against the US War

Former US President Donald Trump had deeply weaponised the dollar during COVID and trade with China was labelled a ‘war’. There have been unilateral sanctions placed on perceived threats and ‘enemy' countries. Countries like China, at the receiving end, have been preparing to hit back, and now it has become a reality.

Trump used sanctions and stopped Russian companies like Rusal Aluminium from accessing the dollar-based financial system in 2017 and then on Rosneft Oil in 2020. Since then the US has had over 30 active financial-and trade sanctions that cut access to the Federal Reserve that have severely destabilised and targeted weaker economies like Iran, Iraq and Venezuela. Trump tried to pressurise the IMF not to assist Iran with the COVID relief package.

As a consequence, all these countries established linkages with China and Russia for trade and economic sustainability. Russia is selling Venezuela’s crude oil. China diverted Iranian crude with Yuan payments and initiated the Iran-China silk route agreements. China is now Iran’s largest trade partner. Iran has diversified trade with Afghanistan and oil for gold with India.

China and Russia have several measures already as cross-border inter-bank payment systems parallel to SWIFT. Both have increased gold holdings to back their currencies and initiated national currency swap agreements in several regional and bilateral arrangements where they play a role.

The BRICS’s New Development Bank, proposed disbursements in national currencies in 2015. In the April 2020 annual board of governors meeting with BRICS finance ministers, the president of the bank K.V. Kamath said that in 2019, a quarter of the USD 15 billion of financial assistance was given in local currencies. He said that BRICS had no intention of destabilising the dollar but  “50 per cent (of projects) should be local currency financed”.

China is reducing its share in US treasury bonds and preparing for currency swap facilities as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with South-East Asian countries. Most of the ASEAN countries are ready for this.

Russia, previously a top holder of US sovereign debt, has radically decreased its holdings because of sanctions. Russia’s strategic relations with China deepened after the 2014 partnership and energy-centred agreements. In 2017, Ruble-Yuan's‘ payment versus payment’ started along the BRI. In 2019, the two countries switched to the Yuan RMB and Ruble in exchange for their USD 25 billion trade.

Russia has been pushing for currency swap agreements with various trade partners. The Eurasian Economic Union with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia comprises the ‘road’ part of the BRI. With a population of 183 million and a GDP of some US$ 5 trillion, 70%  of its trade is in Rubles and local currencies. Several Central and West Asian countries want to join this union and Vietnam already has a full trade agreement with them. This saves the exchange charges of the dollar.

Russia revived trade in national currencies that were earlier used during the Soviet period within the communist bloc and with India. This exchange ended with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. 

In 2019, India switched again to Ruble payments for Russian S-400 defence systems because of US sanctions on Moscow. India worked out local currency trade with the UAE and approved USD 75 billion currency swaps with Japan and USD 400 million currency swaps with South Asian countries. India notified non-dollar-mediated rates of exchange for Turkish and Korean currencies. Turkey is trading in national currencies with China and Russia. Russia proposed trade in Euros with the EU.

China is internationalising the Yuan RMB which is included in the IMF basket, has risen to fifth place as a global currency and represents 15% of global currency holding. Russia has 25% of Chinese RMB international reserves.

The US Debt and Shadow Banks

The problem remains that the Yuan is not presently liquid enough for financial markets. So currency will be diversified with no currency maintaining complete hegemony.

Financial markets are complex and the US dollar is still the preferred currency. But countries have followed the contradictions within US policies – like raising debt ceilings to sustain the dollar as a global currency and even concealing lending to certain foreign banks – and have decided they need to protect themselves from this militarised dollar.

The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money that the United States can borrow cumulatively by issuing bonds. If U.S. government national debt levels bump up against the ceiling, the Treasury Department must resort to other "extraordinary" measures to pay government obligations and expenditures until the ceiling is raised again.

The debt ceiling has been raised or suspended numerous times over the years to avoid the worst-case scenario, which would be a default by the U.S. government on its debt.

There has been controversy over whether the debt ceiling is constitutional. According to the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, "the validity of the public debt of the US, authorized by law...shall not be questioned." The majority of democratic countries do not have a debt ceiling, making the United States one of the few exceptions. The approximate amount of the current U.S. debt ceiling is $ 31.4 trillion, as set by the Congressional vote on 15 December 2021, and signed into law by President Biden on December 16 of the same year. The sum represents a $2.5 trillion increase in the ceiling.

Hitting the debt limit and failing to pay interest payments to bondholders would have grave economic consequences. The United States government would be in default, lowering its credit rating and increasing the cost of its debt. This would throw the U.S. economy into a tailspin.

Another worry for the US is shadow banking- it symbolizes one of the many failings of the US financial system leading up to the current financial crisis.  It is referred mainly to nonbank financial institutions that engaged in what economists call maturity transformation. Commercial banks engage in maturity transformation when they use deposits, which are normally short term, to fund loans that are longer term. Shadow banks do something similar. They raise  (mostly borrow) short-term funds in the money markets and use those funds to buy assets with longer-term maturities. But because they are not subject to traditional bank regulation, they cannot—as banks can—borrow in an emergency from the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) and do not have traditional depositors whose funds are covered by insurance; they are in the “shadows.”

There are now myriad types of entities in the US, performing these intermediation functions, and they are growing all the time. During the financial crisis, investors became skittish about what those longer-term assets were worth and many withdrew their funds at once. To repay these investors, shadow banks sell assets. These “fire sales” generally reduce the value of those assets. 

But in the US, real banks were caught in the shadows, too. Some shadow banks were controlled by commercial banks and for reputational reasons were salvaged by their stronger bank parent. In other cases, the connections were at arm’s length, but because shadow banks had to withdraw from other markets—including those in which banks sold commercial paper and other short-term debt—these sources of funding to banks were also impaired. And because there was so little transparency, it often was unclear who owed (or would owe later) what to whom.

The share of the US dollar assets in the foreign exchange reserves of global central banks, a sign of the dollar's supremacy, dropped to 59 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 - a 25-year low, the IMF reported last May. The share further dropped to 58.88 percent in the first quarter of 2022, IMF data showed.

Thus, because of the US crisis, the Chinese aphorism “hide your capability and bide your time” has become popular in much of Eurasia’s national currency transitions. President Biden's absurd declaration that COVID is over, makes it clear that the economy is also sick.

© Ramachandran