കുമാരനാശാൻ ടി കെ നാരായണനൊപ്പം
ഗുരുവിനൊപ്പം ആശാൻ |
ടി കെ നാരായണൻ |
ഋഷിറാം |
വേദബന്ധു |
കുമാരനാശാൻ ടി കെ നാരായണനൊപ്പം
ഗുരുവിനൊപ്പം ആശാൻ |
ടി കെ നാരായണൻ |
ഋഷിറാം |
വേദബന്ധു |
Shastri with Bhabha |
Crowley |
The G7 is perplexed and confused by the Ukraine crisis
Scarred by reliance on Russian energy that has hampered several European nations from going all out to punish Russia, the just-concluded G7 summit was also warily looking at its systemic rival, China. The summit in Germany was dominated by manoeuvers to tighten the noose around Vladimir Putin without leading to disastrous spillovers- a backlash among Western consumers, starvation in a rain grain-starved global South and a breakdown in the global order are imminent unless the West shows wisdom.
The summit devised a $600 billion plan for the developing world, as a counter to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is called the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and is a relaunch of an unclear scheme unveiled at last year's G7 meet in Britain.
The plan calls on G7 leaders to raise the fund over five years to launch infrastructure projects in middle and low-income countries. The U.S. has promised to raise $200bn of the total through grants, federal funds and private investment, while the EU has announced a further 300bn euros.
Unlike BRI, the one proposed by the G7 would provide funding largely from private investors. The G7 fund will focus on climate initiatives, among other projects, including a $2 billion solar farm investment in Angola, $320 million for hospital construction in the Ivory Coast, a vaccine manufacturing facility in Senegal, a 1,609 km submarine telecommunications cable connecting Singapore to France via Egypt and the Horn of Africa, and $40 million to promote regional energy trade in Southeast Asia.
Ban on Russian Gold and Cap on Oil
Ahead of the summit, London announced that the U.K., along with the U.S., Japan and Canada, would ban new imports of Russian gold to tighten the sanctions. The U.K. said that Russian gold exports reached around $15.5 billion in 2021 and that this figure has gone up since sanctions were imposed as a means of getting around them. Russia accounted for about five percent of all gold exports in 2020 and 90 percent of Russia's output went to G7 countries -- mostly to Britain.
The new sanction would have only a limited impact; similar to energy products, Russia could contain the damage by turning to emerging markets.
Twin caps on the price of Russian oil and pipeline gas to slash the Kremlin’s revenues also gathered support at the summit. The gas cap would operate simply by European countries refusing to pay above an as-yet-unspecified fixed price for Russian gas. But the idea of putting a cap on Russian oil would be unfeasible in reality, and these absurd measures reflect the unfathomable dilemma of the West.
Moreover, Germany is queasy about price caps. It fears a bust-up inside the EU over the proposal and that Putin may simply turn off the supplies of gas to Europe. A cut-off now would leave Europe struggling to build up the gas reserves it needs to survive a fraught winter. EU countries have been directed to fill their gas reserves to a minimum of 80% but they are well short of that.
India's Presence
The G7 is an informal forum bringing together the leaders of the world’s leading industrial nations – the U.S., the U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan. It was formed in 1975, as the world suffered from the first oil shock and financial crisis. Canada joined in 1976 and Russia in 1998. Following the annexation of Crimea, Russia was suspended in March 2014.
Apart from India, other nations which got invited to the current summit were Argentina, Indonesia, Senegal, and South Africa.
At the summit, referring to the Ukraine war, which has pushed up energy prices across the globe, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that “energy access should not be the privilege of only the rich. A poor family also has the same rights on energy. And today, when energy costs are sky-high due to geopolitical tensions, it is more important to remember this.” Obviously, it was a dig at the West, and he was justifying India's decision not to denounce Russia, and to buy discounted oil from Russia.
Modi has frustrated the West, also by imposing a ban on wheat exports. India will continue to buy oil from Russia, possibly with the Chinese Yuan as the reserve currency, in future. India’s top cement maker UltraTech did pay for Russian coal in Yuan, in June, for the first time, in history.
A Weak SummitThe summit was weakened by the fact that only 90 minutes were set aside to discuss food, climate and health. Discussion of debt or the injection of new Special Drawing Rights funds, two cardinal issues of Africa, were ignored. A weariness exists in Africa about the G7’s failure to deliver on pledges made in G7 communiques. In 2015, G7 leaders pledged “to lift 500 million people in developing countries out of hunger and malnutrition by 2030”. But according to Oxfam, “In 2015, there were 630 million in hunger. As of 2021, this figure is thought to be 950 million.”
None of the visiting leaders was enthusiastic about the Ukraine war. The President of Senegal, Macky Sall, as chair of the Africa Union, has warned that the poorest countries are “caught between the hammer of war and the anvil of sanctions”.
Alberto Angel Fernández, the President of Argentina, the world’s sixth-largest wheat exporter facing 60% inflation, has increased levies on food exports.
The Fissures Within
Embittered by the food crisis, fissures have developed in the G7 camp. The vexatious parleys on reaching an agreement on safe passage for grain convoys, overseen by Turkey and the U.N., have lasted a month, and some countries are on the brink of penury.
The plan to ban imports of Russian gold trailed by the US and the U.K. does not yet have the full support of the EU.
The G7 fears the BRICS willingness to expand, and hence the G7 is unlikely to create a vacuum for China to fill by boycotting the upcoming November meeting of the G20.
Those who attended the G7 summit and the subsequent 2022 NATO summit in Spain tried to present a gait of bonhomie, though they are facing internal squabbles. Though officials from Germany and Britain were reported to push for temporary waivers on biofuels mandates to mitigate soaring food prices, Germany had to drop the idea during the summit due to resistance from the U. S. and Canada.
There is also a dispute over climate actions. A communique, released in May, said the G7 agreed to achieve "predominantly decarbonized electricity sectors" by 2035. However, the ministers failed to set a date for phasing out coal-powered energy due to objections from the U.S. and Japan. They continue to clash on coal.
The squabbles won't end in Madrid for NATO, as Turkey's concerns have added hindrance to Finland's and Sweden's pursuit of NATO membership.
False Narrative
Showcasing the PGII, the G7 blamed China for pushing the developing countries into a debt trap, through BRI. Hitting back, China has asserted that the days when global decisions were dictated by a "small group" of countries are long gone.
The Chinese foreign ministry has clarified that calling the BRI a debt trap is a false narrative. According to the World Bank forecast, if all BRI transport infrastructure projects are carried out, by 2030, the BRI will generate $1.6 trillion of revenues for the world each year, or 1.3% of global GDP. Up to 90% of the revenues will go to partner countries. The BRI could contribute to lifting 7.6 million people from extreme poverty and 32 million from moderate poverty from 2015 to 2030.
The competition between China G7 will enable some developing countries to have more choices. But if the crude U.S. political agenda forces these countries to take sides, they will be in a quandary. Herding all developing countries into a US-led global economic order is a weird illusion.
BRICS Summit and after
The summit covered intra-BRICS cooperation in areas such as counter-terrorism, trade, health, traditional medicine, environment, science and technology innovation, agriculture, technical/vocational education and training. This year’s agenda covered a range of topics, but the emphasis was given to renewing multilateralism for global economic recovery, deepening coordination on climate action, and strengthening coordination on pandemics and public health.
Chinese President Xi Jinping criticised the abuse of international sanctions, while Putin scolded the West for fomenting the global crisis. Xi exhorted the member countries to abandon the Cold War mentality, block confrontation and oppose unilateral sanctions and the abuse of sanctions. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi weighed in on the global post-pandemic recovery.
My article |
Established in 2006, BRICS graduated to a summit in 2009. Since India, Brazil, and South Africa (IBSA) summits were held alongside, South Africa became a logical member of BRICS in 2011.
At the time when BRICS was formed, its member countries were generally excluded from global economic institutions, especially Western. Right from its first communiqué, BRICS made it clear that existing international institutions were flawed, and it would offer its members a forum for leadership, cooperation, and information-sharing that had been denied to them.
Moves for expansion
China and Russia consider this an appropriate time to expand BRICS and challenge the domain of the G7 by including members from the G20. Any effort to disrupt the G20 may not bear fruits with Indonesia holding firm on inviting Russia.
China, backed by Russia, is hastening the process of expansion of BRICS as part of its strategic challenge to the US-led international order and to collect moderate powers around them. Hence, the 2022 theme, “Foster High-quality BRICS Partnership, Usher in a New Era for Global Development” was not accidental.
The setting up of the New Development Bank or BRICS Bank was the first step in the expansion of BRICS.
Despite Western foreboding, BRICS implemented its 2012 decision at the Delhi summit to form new financial institutions, establishing the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) in 2014. The NDB is the first bank founded by developing countries. It has established partnerships with other development banks, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the World Bank. It is trying to be more attractive to developing countries than Western banks. It lends in local currency, which protects the borrowing country from the stronger US dollar, and allows borrowing countries to set the standards for environmental and social compliance rather than having such standards imposed on them. The CRA, with a capital of more than $100 billion, is meant to help members withstand any short-term balance-of-payment pressures.
The NDB expanded membership in 2021, admitting Bangladesh, the UAE, Uruguay and Egypt. So far, the Bank has disbursed $30 billion in 80 projects in its member countries. Of these projects, 21 are in India in sectors from transport, water and sanitation to clean energy, as well as digital and social infrastructure, involving $7.1 billion. The NDB has established an Indian Regional Office and just two days before the summit, DJ Pandian was appointed as director-general of the new office. Pandian previously served as Vice President and Chief Investment Officer at Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank.
In late May, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that Saudi Arabia and Argentina are deeply interested in joining BRICS. The Ukraine crisis saw fissures emerging in the G20 and adding new members to BRICS could make it an alternative minus the US and its allies. This could also mean the BRICS overtaking G7 earlier than expected.
The first likely criteria in admitting new members will be to give priority to G20 members. Argentina, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia would qualify from there. For UAE and Egypt, their NDB membership is a qualifier. Kazakhstan was invited to the May 20 meeting as the largest country in Central Asia. Nigeria is an important African economy. Senegal is the current chair of the African Union. Thailand is the chair of the APEC and Indonesia, is the chair of the G20.
From the bloc of Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia (MIKTA), only Indonesia was invited. Russia and China would be happy to have Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Argentina, but Egypt is a close ally of the US. Brazil would have to agree on Argentina. They are rivals in Latin America. South Africa has views on Nigeria and Egypt.
India is unlikely to oppose Indonesia as its relationship has been improving politically. India has an enhanced bonhomie with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Russia and China will have to decide on Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries. China may also back Iran and Malaysia.
Indian position
India has shown great realism by refusing to denounce Putin over Ukraine because it knows on which side the oil tanker is anchored. Indian economy is not robust and New Delhi will remain engaged with China.
The five BRICS nations together represent 40 per cent of the global population, 24 per cent of GDP and 16 per cent of global trade. China is the largest economy in the grouping, accounting for more than 70 per cent of the group's collective $ 27.5 trillion economic might. Buffeted by the pandemic, none of the BRICS economies is predicted to expand except for China’s. Thus, India cannot afford to stay out.
India's economy is suffering as it comes off the COVID-19 coupled with Ukraine aftershocks. It cannot jeopardise the lives of its population by refusing to buy discounted Russian oil and other energy products, that have been shunned by European countries following the sanctions. Moreover, Russian companies are accepting payments in Indian rupees and UAE dirhams. China is the largest importer of Russian energy and India is the largest importer of Russian defence equipment. While the Ukraine crisis has seen US allies reduce their Russian imports, China and India have increased theirs.
Challenges ahead
The summit would be interpreted by the West as the BRICS endorsement of Putin's doctrine. They have been unhappy with all BRICS members resisting the US-led campaign to denounce Russia and slap sanctions. China’s and India’s insistence on independence from the US-led order jells well with Russia’s anti-US stance.
BRICS continues to remain beneficial to its member states. Each country’s top leader attends the summit every year, and before G-20 summits and IMF and World Bank meetings, BRICS members hold preparatory sessions to discuss their stance.
BRICS helps China as a kind of diplomatic counteroffensive to both the revival of NATO and the increase in Indo-Pacific camouflages that are designed to keep its power in check. Through BRICS, China continues to draw on its tradition of ‘always siding with the third world,’ as Deng Xiaoping famously said.
US President Joe Biden’s signature economic initiative unveiled last month in Tokyo showed western sponsored states consciously diversifying their supply chains away from China and forming new standards-setting agreements such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, or creating setups that are trading mutually to ensure safe and reliable flows of energy-critical material, minerals, and rare earth components.
But the challenge for Beijing is that there is a growing number of alternatives for the developing countries, whether it is the free and open Indo-Pacific Vision with emphasis on infrastructure connectivity, standard-setting, healthy infrastructure, tools for good governance, or alternative financings, such as Japan-led and EU-led infrastructure connectivity projects. China can surpass this competition by being more transparent about its agreements along the Belt and Road Initiative and through the Asian Development Bank.
To cap it all, China has surpassed the US to become the richest nation in the world as global wealth tripled over the past two decades, according to a November 2021 report by the research arm of consultants McKinsey & Co. China’s wealth jumped to $120 trillion in 2020 from just $7 trillion in 2000. This marks a jump of $113 trillion in 20 years, helping the nation surpass the US in terms of net worth. During the same period, the US saw its net worth more than double to $90 trillion. However, the nation could not beat China due to muted increases in property prices.
Thus the broader geopolitics guarantees the flourishing of BRICS. India does not want to openly ally with the US against China, though the US has surpassed China to become India’s biggest trading partner. Russia is the trusted comrade of both India and China. Brazil and South Africa have little to gain by turning away from BRICS.
The US strategy in containing China has focused on security, whether through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, NATO, or the AUKUS deal. But China is focused on an economic game through infrastructure, investment, and building close networks in many developing countries.
Hence it is not easy for the US to lead the liberal international order and check China’s quantum jump. The global order is no more a monolithic entity; it comprises several blocs of power that jockey for influence. This is the clear message of the BRICS summit.
(This article was published in China India Dialogue http://chinaindiadialogue.com/message-of-the-brics-summit-2)
© Ramachandran
A valid record still preserved
The baptism record of Jacob Ramavarma, the first Christian convert from the Cochin royal family has been unearthed by a research scholar of the Central University, Kasaragod, at the St Francis Church, Fort Kochi. This record has been mentioned in my debut novel, Papasnanam, published in 2017, which is based on the life and travails of Jacob Ramavarma. The novel says (Page 112) that the baptism register no 4 of the Church records the baptism of Ramavarma as no 112. It was preceded by the baptism of a Konkani Brahmin, Ananthan.
Baptism register |
The novel was published and I had left it there. Last month, a research scholar, Ammu Venunath called me for an interview. Her PhD thesis is going to be on Microhistory in Malayalam Novels, she said. It was a pleasant surprise to hear that one of the novels she has taken up for her research is, Papasnanam. M K Sanoo and I had spoken about the novel once at the C M S College, Kottayam.
Ammu came and interviewed me twice after Vishu, during which I explained the background of the protagonist and the history of conversion in Kerala and India. She had no idea whether Ramavarma was a true or fictional character. It was then I told her of the existence of the baptism record. She went to the Church the next day and met the vicar. He kept the record ready for her after a couple of days. She clicked the record and sent me the photos today.
The record mentions the name, Constantine Ramavarma in the fourth line and in the next line, it says that his father was the late king of Cochin Wirakeralan. Jacob Ramavarma was known as Constantine after baptism and became Jacob during his priesthood.
Baptism record |
Yacob (Jacob) Rama Varman was the second of the eight children of King Vira Kerala Varma (period of reign:1809-1828), popularly known as Virulam Thampuran or Karkadakathil Theepetta Thampuran. The second name refers to his death in the Malayalam month of Karkadakam.
It was a period of great political turmoil. Just before Vira Kerala Varma took over, Paliath Govindan Achan, the Commander of the King had rebelled against the British. He was exiled first to Madras and then to Bombay. He died in 1832. After the rebellion, the military was deployed in Mattancherry, Alapuzha and Tripunithura, till 1809. When Ramavarman was born (1814) Fort Cochin was handed over to the British.
We get much of the information on Ramavarman from his speech which is considered the first autobiography in Malayalam by some. It is the story of his conversion. It was first published in the journal, Keralopakari in 1874 and was published as a book by Basel Mission Press in Tellicherry, the same year. It was written for a public reading in the hastharpanam (anointing by placing the right hand over the head) ceremony on September 3,1856 when he was anointed a priest, in the presence of Chirakkal King and Herman Gundert. It was read after the sermon by Rev Samuel Hebich, before the anointment. Yakob had been living with Gundert, since 1849.
A detailed post on Jacob Ramavarma:
https://hamletram.blogspot.com/2014/02/prince-ramavarama-becomes-jacob.html
© Ramachandran
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