OUT OF PLEASURE, MINISTER K K TEWARY RESIGNED

Amin Khan of Rajasthan also quit

Article 164 of the Constitution of India. Other provisions as to Ministers : (1) The Chief Minister shall be appointed by the Governor and the other Ministers shall be appointed by the Governor on the advice of the Chief Minister, and the Ministers shall hold office during the pleasure of the Governor.

On the day of Diwali, when the Governor of Kerala, Arif Mohammad Khan met the journalists in Raj Bhavan, he mentioned that a minister in the Rajiv Gandhi government had to resign when the then President of India had informed the Prime Minister of his displeasure on the minister. The press meeting was over 80 minutes, but none of the journalists bothered to ask the Governor, about the details of the past incident. I felt sad.

The incident happened in 1985 and the minister who had to resign was K K Tewary and the President who wrote to Rajiv Gandhi revealing his displeasure was Gyani Zail Singh. It is a known fact that Zail Singh had a running feud with Rajiv Gandhi then.

Arif Mohammad Khan, at that time, had been a colleague of Tewary in the Rajiv Gandhi cabinet, as minister of state for Information and Broadcasting.

Tewary had been elected twice from the Buxar Lok Sabha constituency in 1980 and 1984, and he became Union Minister of State for Public Enterprise, in Rajiv Gandhi's 1984 cabinet. Zail Singh had written to the PM withdrawing his pleasure on Tiwary, referring to the minister's allegations of Zail Singh having extremist links. It isn't often that polemical broadsides are aimed at the August person of the President of India, or the Governor of a state, who are national symbols and supposed to be above controversy.

K K Tewary

So more than a few eyebrows went up in May 1985, when Tewary, alleged in the Lok Sabha that two Sikhs supposed to be connected with extremists overseas had been President Zail Singh's guests at Rashtrapati Bhawan in 1983.

Tewary's remarks came close on the heels of stories in sections of the media alleging that the President had links with extremists. Admittedly, the sensational stories looked like a campaign.

The most blatant accusation came from Tewary. Speaking in a debate on a public hearing on the so-called "human rights" issue in Punjab in Washington, Tewari said that Didar Singh Bains and Harbhajan Singh Jogi (Khalsa), two men who he said were associated with such extremist leaders as Jagjit Singh Chauhan and Ganga Singh Dhillon, had stayed at Rashtrapati Bhawan in 1983.

Trying to establish a link thus between Rashtrapati Bhawan and these protagonists of Khalistan, Tewary thundered: "I would like to ask the (home) minister how their stay was possible."

Home Minister S.B. Chavan seemed less than enthusiastic in his reply. Taking two days to make a riposte, all he did was read out the official denial issued by Rashtrapati Bhawan saying that Bains and Jogi had not stayed there.

What made Tewary's allegation interesting was not just that it was made but that he doesn't seem to have been taken to task for speaking out of turn. Chavan's defence was so half-hearted - opposition leaders felt that the feelings he expressed were actually inspired by higher-ups.

Bains

But Tewary firmly denied later that he was acting on orders. Said he: "I have been in Parliament for six years and I have been known to speak my mind. This was an issue I felt strongly about."

The story of Bains and Jogi

Both Bains and Jogi had visited India several times and Jogi at least had been in Rashtrapati Bhawan as a visitor if not as an overnight guest, and Jogi had also met the late prime minister Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi before he became prime minister.

Jogi, or Yogi Bhajan a former customs inspector at Delhi airport, had left India in the 1960s to settle in the United States. He is credited with having converted a number of white Americans to Sikhism and becoming a wealthy man owning property including ashrams in several parts of The US.

Jogi has been accused posthumously of sexual abuse by hundreds of his female followers; an investigation called the Olive Branch Report found the allegations most likely true.

In 2019, Yogi Bhajan's former secretary Pamela Saharah Dyson published the book Premka: White Bird in a Golden Cage: My Life with Yogi Bhajan, reporting that she and other women had sexual relationships with Harbhajan Singh. In March 2020, anti-cult activist Be Scofield published an article in her magazine, The Guru reporting sexual abuse and rape of female followers and assistants including Dyson by Harbhajan Singh, based on "over a dozen original interviews."

But he was no stranger to India. According to the official records, he was in India on December 9, 1982, and stayed with his disciples in a five-star hotel in the capital. He was back in India in 1984 and sat in the VIP enclosure at the Republic Day parade.

Jogi

Three months later, when President Zail Singh visited Mexico, he dropped in on Jogi's Los Angeles ashram. Even Minister of State for Steel, Natwar Singh, who was then foreign secretary, was with him. The itinerary significantly was approved by the Government.

Didar Singh Bains, founder of Gurdwara Yuba City California was one of the wealthiest Sikhs in the US to which he migrated shortly after Independence in 1947. Known as the “Peach King” of California, he was one of the richest Sikh farmers in North America.

He arrived in the US with only $8 and went on to own over 40 pockets of land in 13 counties, including 667 acres of land near Sacramento International Airport. He became one of Northern California’s richest men, having assets worth USD 50 million. Bains worked as a labourer during his initial days in the US. He not only sponsored his own family members, but countless other people of the region to immigrate to the US since 1960.

Bains also has been an acquaintance of Zail Singh's for some time.

But Operation Bluestar changed his view on his country of origin completely. Shortly after the crack-down on extremists in the Golden Temple in June 1984, he told India Today (July 15, 1984) in the US: "My only solution now is Khalistan. Before the raid, I was not too much for it."

Bains too was reported to have visited India often though not since the army crackdown. More important, he was once considered for an honour by Mrs Gandhi's government.

Zail Singh

According to information from intelligence sources, Jogi and Bains were in different ways committed to the extremist cause. But while Jogi was known more for his flamboyance, Bains may have been more active in the separatist movement. But the way things were, it would have done nobody any good, certainly not the President, to publicly own up to a friendship with the two.

Before he became President, Zail Singh was embroiled in an unseemly battle for influence within the Congress(I) in Punjab, battling his chief rival in the party, Darbara Singh, in a manner which gave all the advantage to the extremist leader Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale.

Incidents in which the rivalry between these two Congress(I) leaders allowed Bhindranwale to evade arrest and Zail Singh's presence at a religious ceremony together with Bhindranwale are now an indelible part of the Punjab story.

The pleasure doctrine

But in the present context, it will do well for the ignorant journalists to remember the story-after Tiwary "revealed," Zail Singh's connection with the "extremists", the President wrote a letter to the Prime Minister like the one Arif Mohammad Khan sent to the Chief Minister. Rajiv Gandhi consulted all the available constitutional experts, but could not rescue Tiwary. If the President/Governor loses his pleasure on a minister, there is no other way. The 'pleasure' is discretion, and it cannot be questioned.

Tewary resigned immediately, or he was asked to resign by Rajiv Gandhi. Tiwary was reinstated as minister after Zail Singh's exit in 1987.

Tewary had also openly criticised Zail Singh, following the appointment given to Congress dissidents Pranab Mukherjee and Gundu Rao by Rashtrapati Bhawan for presenting a memorandum against the Government. Rajiv Gandhi had fallen out with Pranab.

In 1990 June, Tewary earned a record when he was reprimanded in the Rajya Sabha, for his outburst against Vice-President Shankar Dayal Sharma who was also chairman of the upper House.

It was the first time a former minister has been hauled up.

Tewary's return to the limelight came after Sharma indicted Congress(I) members for their rowdy behaviour. Obviously feeling left out of the action, Tewary emerged to "defend my party". The defence took the form of an attack on the chairman, whom Tewary accused of an "utterly outrageous and totally impermissible outburst". For good measure, he added that Sharma's "hysterical rantings have not served the cause of democracy as his simulated dramatics were clearly aimed at gagging the only opposition party and its members".

The statement led to an uproar in the House and finally, it was decided to reprimand Tewary. After his attempts to evade the order through the Supreme Court failed, Tewary eventually turned up on June 1.

He was literally put in the dock while Heptulla read out the reprimand which, apart from censuring Tewary, stated that a more severe penalty was not being administered in the hope that he would repent.

Now, Arif Mohammad Khan, who cited the 1985 incident has written to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, withdrawing his pleasure on the Finance Minister K N Balagopal, and according to precedence, Balagopal's days are numbered.

In February 2011, Rajasthan Minister of State for Rural Development and Waqf, Amin Khan had to quit after a row over disparaging remarks he made about President Pratibha Patil. He was asked to quit by Chief Minister Asok Gehlot.

"The president cooked food and washed dishes in Indira Gandhi's kitchen in 1977," Khan told a gathering of Congress workers. "She never asked for anything in return, so she was finally rewarded by the Congress with the president's post," he said.

Amin was asked to quit knowing the displeasure of the President-it could be settled without Ms Patil writing a letter because Amin belonged to the Congress, of which she was a member.

In 2015, the Governor of Uttar Pradesh, Ram Naik withdrew his pleasure on minister Azam Khan, for abusing him in the assembly during the discussion of the Nagar Nigam bill, and wrote a letter to the Speaker. When the minister did not resign, a quo warranto petition was filed by a person in the Allahabad High Court. The Governor had summoned the video footage of the discussion and had found that indeed Khan's remarks were defamatory.

The UP government took the position that remarks made by MLAs inside the assembly are not subject to judicial review. The Speaker has the authority to take action and the remarks removed from assembly records will not be available to the public. There are court orders which said that it is not the judiciary but the administrative leadership that has the right to take action. The government also pleaded that the withdrawal of the pleasure must be by consensus on the advice of the Chief Minister. 

Ajoy Mukherjee

The court pointed out that the Governor has not issued a notification withdrawing the minister. The note containing the displeasure of the Governor should not be subjected to judicial review. The court said that the Governor, Speaker and the CM should solve the problem.

The current situation in Kerala is not similar to the Azam Khan case, since the incident doesn't pertain to hate speech inside the assembly. The Governor has raised a case of sedition, on remarks made in public. More than that, the Governor referred to the sedition cases against former minister Saji Cherian and K T Jaleel, MLA. It means the Governor sees a pattern in Balagopal's seditious speech.

It is well known that the Communist Party of India had not recognised the freedom that India attained in 1947; they termed it bourgeois freedom and recognised the country's freedom only during the 1956 Palakkad Congress session.

There are several instances in which courts have upheld the doctrine of pleasure. In November 1967, the Governor of West Bengal, Mahabir Prasad Sharma dismissed Chief Minister Ajoy Mukherjee and appointed Prafulla Chandra Ghosh. When a case was filed in the High Court, Justice B Mitra ruled:

"Article 164(1) provides that the Ministers shall hold office during the pleasure of the Governor. This exercise of pleasure by the Governor, however, has not been fettered by any condition or restriction. The withdrawal of the pleasure by the Governor is, in my view, a matter entirely at the discretion of the Governor. The provision in clause (2) of Article 164, that the Ministers shall be collectively responsible to the Legislative Assembly of the State, does not in any manner fetter or restrict the Governor's power to withdraw the pleasure during which the Ministers hold office. Collective responsibility contemplated by Cl. (2) of Article 164 means that the Council of Ministers is answerable to the Legislative Assembly of the State. It follows that a majority of the members of the Legislative Assembly can at any time express its want of confidence in the Council of Ministers. But that is as far as the Legislative Assembly can go. The Constitution has not conferred any power on the Legislative Assembly of the State to dismiss or remove from office the Council of Ministers. If a Council of Ministers refuses to vacate the office of Ministers, even after a motion of no-confidence has been passed against it in the Legislative Assembly of the State, it will then be for the Governor to withdraw the pleasure during which the Council of Ministers hold office. The power to appoint the Chief Minister, and the Council of Ministers on the advice of the Chief Minister, and the power to remove the Ministers from office, by withdrawing the pleasure contemplated by Article 164(1) have been conferred upon the Governor of the State exclusively".

This ruling upholds the Governor's power to withdraw his pleasure.

© Ramachandran 

CHINA: THE MEANING OF CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

Taiwan in the amendment

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (NCCPC) established Xi Jinping's core position in the Party, the Central Committee and the guiding role of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and it set the rejuvenation of China on "an irreversible historical course."

Xi’s role as the “core” of the party was reaffirmed in amendments to the party’s constitution approved by Congress on the closing day.

A resolution said that the “Two Establishes”, which define Xi as the “core leader” of the Party and his thoughts as the guiding principles of China’s future development, were the major political achievements of the Party.

This follows the introduction in 2021, into the constitution, of the "Two Establishes" idea, which confirmed Xi as the core of the Party and its Central Committee (CC), and the guiding force of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era.”

To better reflect “new achievements” under Xi’s leadership, the delegates agreed to add “new developments” in the past five years to the section on “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”.

Xi Jinping after the Congress

Also added to the constitution was a reference to further elevating the party’s status in public life, referring to “the party as the supreme leading power”, and urging it to “continue to strengthen the comprehensive leadership of the party”.

The Congress, which retained Xi as Party General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, will also be etched in the annals of history forever, as it confirmed President Xi for an unprecedented third term. 

The Party has now broken a rule established two decades ago by outgoing President Jiang Zemin: a retirement age of 68. 

The foundations for Xi’s third term were laid in 2018 when the National People’s Congress voted to remove the two-term bar for presidents that had been introduced by Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 to 1989.

Xi is only the third leader in modern China to have an ideology in his name after “Mao Zedong Thought” and “Deng Xiaoping Theory”.

The amendment of the constitution indicates Xi’s authority. At the last national congress in 2017, Xi’s eponymous ideology of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era was first enshrined in the party constitution, alongside the doctrines of Mao and Deng, elevating Xi to their level.

The post of Chairman, which Mao held, was abolished after he died in 1976. The system of the general secretary as head of state began with Jiang Zemin, who was general secretary from 1989 to 2002 becoming President in 1993.

Half the members of the 25-person Politburo, aged out under the retirement rule.

Four members of the Politburo Standing Committee retired: Premier Li Keqiang, 67; National People’s Congress chairman Li Zhanshu, 72; Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference chairman Wang Yang, 67; and Vice-Premier Han Zheng, 68.

They were replaced by  Li Qiang, 63, Li Xi, 66,  Ding Xuexiang 60, and Cai Qi, 66. Together with Wang Huning, 67, and anti-corruption chief Zhao Leji, 65, they form the new Politburo Standing Committee, led by Xi Jinping.

Li Keqiang, 67, the Premier, is not in the C C and will step down, according to the constitution, having completed two terms. The new PM will be Li Qiang, since he is the second in the hierarchy, after Xi.

Li Xi, 66, the Guangdong Party Chief is among the 133 new members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) and is the only member in the body who is on the 25-strong Politburo. He is on track to become the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, replacing Zhao Leji.

A surprise exit from the Central Committee is, Chen Quanguo, 66, the former party chief of both Xinjiang and Tibet. He was promoted to the Politburo, the party’s highest policymaking body, five years ago. Transport Minister Li Xiaopeng, 63, the son of former National People’s Congress chairman and Chinese premier Li Peng, central bank governor Yi Gang, 64, and Guo Shuqing, 66, the head of China’s banking regulator have also exited from the C C.

Senior diplomat Yang Jiechi and Vice-Premier Liu He retired from the CC. 

However, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, 69, is among the new Central Committee members.  He took up the Politburo seat vacated by Yang Jiechi, who retired.

Once viewed as a top candidate for China’s uppermost echelon of leadership, Hu Chunhua, 59, Vice Premier, exited the Politburo. He has been an enforcer of Xi’s poverty alleviation project.

Breaking the age rule, General Zhang Youxia, 72, Vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, finds a place in the latest C C. to take up a superior position. But Vice-chairman General Xu Qiliang, Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe and Joint Staff Department chief General Li Zuocheng have all reached 68 and are absent from the new C C. General Miao Hua, chief of the CMC’s Political Work Department, and General Zhang Shengmin, head of military discipline, are still in the C C. Both are under 68.

Vice-premier Sun Chunlan, 72, the sole female Politburo member, retired without replacement. It is the first time in 25 years there has been no woman in the decision-making body.

Though age is still considered, cadres are evaluated according to a matrix of myriad factors including background and efficiency. One of the criteria for President Xi Jinping in picking his top team was the candidates’ ability to “struggle” with the West to circumvent sanctions and safeguard national security, according to state news agency Xinhua. “Party secretary Xi Jinping personally took charge of the planning and personally took charge of the gatekeeping,” the report said.

Appointments to central government positions will be finalized in March during the annual session of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament. Xi will assume another term of presidency then.

The new PB standing committee

The highest-ranking body in the state apparatus is the National People's Congress (NPC), which meets annually, typically in March. The NPC elects the president - a role which, since 1993, has been held by the Party's general secretary. The president in turn nominates the premier, ratified by the NPC, who presides over the State Council or the cabinet.

Xi would, upon completion of this extended tenure of five years, have ruled over China for longer than any leader barring Mao, who held power for 33 years.

Xi's appointment as Shanghai’s top official 15 years ago at the age of 53, set him up for a seat on the PSC at the party congress held in 2007. He and Li Keqiang jumped two spots to reach the Standing Committee, then, which is rare.

Held every five years, the Congress has three main tasks: to endorse leadership transitions; to approve changes to the party constitution, and to deliberate on policy issues. In all, 2,338 delegates represented almost 97 million Communist Party members. 

While Jiang Zemin, 96 and Zhu Rongji, 93, could not attend the Congress, Song Ping, 105, the most senior retired Politburo Standing Committee member was present.

In the Party hierarchy, the most important bodies are the NCCPC and the C C. The NCCPC elects the CC, while the general secretary, politburo, and Politburo Standing Committees are elected at the first plenum of the Central Committee held after the NCCPC.

Nested within the 25-member top body, Politburo is the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). New PSC members replace those who retire according to a convention, qishang baxia, or  “seven up, eight down”. The age of retirement is 68 years, and the oldest new entrant can be  67.

The changes this time resulted in a more homogeneous CC than ever in terms of age and experience. Members in their mid-50s and 60s occupy most of the seats in CC.

Blueprint for modernization

During these momentous changes, Xi gave China’s foreign policy a new direction than ever before. He also sought to increase Beijing’s global reach through his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Xi set priorities in a landmark 2013 speech to prevent China from meeting the same fate as the Soviet Union. Since rising to the top in 2012, Xi has cracked down on corruption in the CCP and introduced several new bodies in the party. As chair of China’s Central Military Commission, Xi controls the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). 

Following the Party’s 18th National Congress, Xi, as general secretary, set forth a series of original strategies for governance, and China’s economic development became much more balanced and sustainable. 

Xi's view that China faces a deteriorating external situation in its relations with the United States also set the scene.

China’s emergence as the second-largest economy with military might, over the last two decades, made the happenings at the Congress of compelling interest to the rest of the world. The Congress promised continuity, reorientation, and a paradigm shift in policy and governance.

The signals for changes to the long-term structural policy are in line with the major elements of Xi's thoughts in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Released in early 2021, it includes long-term objectives through 2035.

Hence, in his work report to the Congress, Xi said that the effort will be “to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization."

Xi observed that the next five years will be crucial for ensuring that the efforts to build a modern socialist country in all respects get off to a good start.

It is because China is now following a zero Covid policy. China set a modest growth target of 5.5 per cent this year, but the World Bank said last month it would be just 2.8 per cent, much lower than the 5.3 per cent for “developing East Asia and the Pacific outside of China”.

Add to it, there are also concerns about a global recession, which has been reflected in China’s real estate sector, which constitutes 30 per cent of the country’s GDP, and commercial banks are exposed to it.

Though Congress has not put forth macroeconomic policy solutions, it reiterated “Common Prosperity,” the slogan that Mao gave during China’s years of great impoverishment, Deng resurrected to justify the economic reforms of the 1980s, and Xi promoted. In Xi’s view, “Common Prosperity” will be achieved only by closing out inequalities.

Gradually, Mao’s dream is getting fulfilled. At the eighth Congress in May 1958, he envisaged an industrialized nation, which he summarized by the slogan, “Three Red Banners,’ ie, “go all out, aim high, and build socialism with greater, faster, better and more economical results.”

Taiwan and strategic deterrence

At the close of the Congress, the Party added, “fully, faithfully, and resolutely implementing the policy of One Country, Two Systems; resolutely opposing and deterring separatists seeking Taiwan independence" to its constitution, the first time such an explicit reference has been included in the document to address tensions around the island.

Hinting at the amendment, in his report to the Congress, Xi favoured a hardline approach to relations with the West, particularly over Taiwan.

On Taiwan, Xi reiterated striving for complete reunification in a peaceful way, but said "we will never promise to renounce the use of force". Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China's complete reunification is, for the Party, “a historic mission and an unshakable commitment”, he said.

He was obviously referring to the visit to Taiwan by the U S Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August which prompted China to launch military exercises around the island. 

He pointed out that “resolving the Taiwan issue is a matter for Chinese people themselves, and must be resolved by Chinese people alone.”

Xi has said in the past that "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fulfilled" by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would shatter US power in the western Pacific Ocean and beyond. Taiwan is part of the so-called "first island chain", which has been allied with the US for decades.

But, while the Congress was on, Taiwan signed a $77.8 million service contract with the U.S. to maintain the performance of its Patriot air-defence systems in intercepting missiles.  Under the five-year contract, which will expire at the end of 2027, the U.S. will send experts to Taiwan.

On Hong Kong and Macao, Xi said, China will implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, under which the people of Hong Kong administer Hong Kong and the people of Macao administer Macao. He warned that “we will crack down hard on anti-China elements who attempt to create chaos in Hong Kong and Macao”. 

Beijing imposed an all-out national security law in Hong Kong after the turmoil in 2019.

China also has territorial claims in the South China Sea. Its “nine-dash line” laying claim was ruled unlawful by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague in 2016, but Beijing has refused to recognise the decision.

The new PB standing committee members

Global Times reported that delegates from Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Southwest China's Xizang Autonomous Region spoke highly of Xi’s report to the Congress, vowing to fully implement the Party's guidelines.

At the Congress, without naming the U.S., Xi remarked: "China... resolutely opposes all forms of hegemony and power politics, opposes the Cold War mentality, opposes interfering in other countries domestic politics, opposes double standards," and  "will never seek hegemony and will never engage in expansion".

Just ahead of Congress, the American national security strategy issued by the Joe Biden Administration (US NSS) affirmed that China remains its greatest threat. In his foreword to the NSS, Biden says “Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown.” He names China, on the other hand, as “the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that objective”.

It means the Biden Administration now sees the Indo-Pacific as the principal strategic theatre.

On security, Xi said in his report: “We will establish a strong system of strategic deterrence, increase the proportion of new-domain forces with new combat capabilities, and speed up the development of unmanned, intelligent combat capabilities.”

The country’s 14th five-year plan report released last year emphasised the need to “build a high-standard strategic deterrence”.

Strategic deterrence is the will and ability to wield military power to prevent the use of force by another state and to dissuade adversaries from launching a nuclear attack.

And, China had become a nuclear power, exactly 58 years ago, on October 16, 1964.

The U.S. tried to show the crudest form of hegemony towards China by imposing tough export regulations targeting China’s semiconductor industry,  just before the Party Congress. It was a gesture designed to humiliate China. The sweeping new export controls are aimed at cutting off China from obtaining chips used in supercomputers. The sanctions prevent the sales and service by US businesses to Chinese chip manufacturers. Aware of this, Beijing has made contingency plans to deflect the U.S. action. The U.S. is concerned that Chinese chip manufacturers were rather closer to attaining parity with US technologies than previously thought.

The Netherlands’ AMSL is the world’s biggest supplier of advanced chipmaking gear, and Washington is threatening the company with exclusion from the US market unless it bans sales to China.

The West is also peeved by other strategies led by China. The leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the recent summit at Samarkand chalked out a road map to conduct bilateral trade and investment and issue bonds in local and national currencies instead of US dollars and UK Pounds or Euros, seeking an end to the dollar hegemony.

Former US President Donald Trump had deeply weaponised the dollar during Covid and trade with China was labelled a ‘war’. There have been unilateral sanctions placed on perceived threats and ‘enemy' countries. Countries like China, at the receiving end, have been preparing to hit back, and now it has become a reality.

The U.S. has a lot to worry about since it is the world's largest debtor nation, with an accumulated federal debt now topping $28 trillion. China holds $980.8 billion of U.S. Treasurys—3.2% of the total U.S. debt.

But, China is reducing its share in U.S. treasury bonds and preparing for currency swap facilities as part of the BRI and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with South-East Asian countries. Most of the ASEAN countries are ready for this.

China is already a heavyweight, with its $19 trillion economy. For more than a century, no U.S. adversary or coalition of adversaries had reached 60 per cent of the US GDP. And yet, China reached this milestone quietly in 2014. When one adjusts for the relative price of goods, China’s economy is already 25 per cent larger than the U.S. It is clear, then, that China is the most belligerent competitor that the U. S. has ever faced.

President Biden's absurd declaration that Covid is over, makes it clear that the U. S. economy is sick.

 Xiaokang-China shows the way

Contrary to the expectations of western analysts, Xi reiterated at the Congress that economic development is the Communist Party’s “top priority,” signalling that Beijing will continue to emphasize growth. “Development is the party’s top priority in governance,” he said.

Since Xi has been highlighting the need to balance security concerns with economic growth since 2020, Western analysts prophesied that Xi would drop the development-first focus. 

But in his report to Congress, Xi stuck to the party’s goal for per-capita GDP to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035. At the same time, he  mentioned  the need to “balance development with security."

He said that China has entered a period of development in which strategic opportunities, risks and challenges are concurrent and uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising.

Warning of various unpredictable dangerous events ("black swans") and foreseeable but unaddressed dangers ("grey rhinos") that may occur at any time, he urged Party members to be more mindful of potential dangers, be prepared to deal with worst-case scenarios, and be ready to "withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms".

Xi repeated the party’s key economic policies, including “dual circulation.” Dual circulation involves expanding domestic demand, focusing on the domestic market, improving the country's capacity for innovation, reducing dependence on foreign markets, and at the same time remaining open to the outside world. 

Xi and Li Qiang after the Congress

China has accomplished its first centenary goal of building xiaokang - a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2021 and to start the second centenary goal of building a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049.  "By xiaokang, we need to achieve a per capita GNP of $800", Deng Xiao Ping elaborated on multiple occasions.

Hard work brought dividends. China's GDP in 1952 was 67.9 billion yuan with per capita GDP at 119 yuan, while in 1978, the GDP increased to 367.9 billion yuan and the per capita GDP in that year was 385 yuan, according to a white paper on China's xiaokang issued in 2021.

At the same time, China's list of trading partners, which numbered in the 40s in 1978, grew to 231 economies in 2017. In 2010, China's per capita GDP tripled from India's $1,358.

Impact on Covid policy

China's zero Covid policy is one of Xi's landmark strategies and in the report to Congress, he said the policy was an "all-out people's war to stop the spread of the virus."

At a recent Politburo meeting, Xi said the issue should be viewed as long-term and systematic and, from a political perspective, in terms of the relationship between pandemic control and economic development. 

Congress didn't offer any policy changes like an easing of regulations and further cyclical stimulus. It was because the NCCPC is a forum for long-term structural policy, rather than short-term cyclical policy.

Alleviation of poverty

At the Congress, Xi said the Party “has won the largest battle against poverty in human history”.

While the West waited for China’s impoverishment, the country took the lead in alleviating poverty. There was a feeling of contentment in the Congress, because the World Bank’s latest report, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022, recognised China to have reduced poverty at historically unprecedented levels.

Intending to provide lessons to other developing countries, the World Bank and China’s Ministry of Finance undertook a study in 2019 to understand how China did it and the study was published earlier this year.

The World Bank found that during 1978 - 2019, China’s poverty headcount dropped from 770 million to 5.5 million people. China lifted 765 million people from extreme poverty in the past four decades.

It means, on average, every year China pulled 19 million poor people out of extreme poverty. In doing so, China accounted for almost 75 per cent of the global reduction in extreme poverty.

In 2021, China declared that it has eradicated extreme poverty.

Taken together, improvements in health, education, and income during this period are reflected in China’s rising position on the Human Development Index from 106 (out of 144 countries) in 1990 to 85 (out of 189 countries) in 2019.

It is a lesson for global policymakers, especially for India, because China is comparable to India in terms of population size. Perhaps, China’s achievement was churning the mind of Dattatreya Hosabale, general secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), when he lamented thus, recently: “Over 20 crore (200 million) people who live here (in India) are below the below poverty line. Around 23 crores (230 million) people are having (just) an income of Rs 375 ($4.5) per day. The unemployment rate is also very distressing at 7.6 per cent. There is poverty, and unemployment in the country but we also need to discuss the rising inequality.”

The RSS is the Hindu nationalist organization that moulded the character of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

To add to India’s woes, the latest edition of the Global Hunger Index report, released by Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe, based in Germany, ranked India 107th out of 121 countries that could be ranked and 136 countries that were assessed.  The Indian government responded by summarily dismissing the report, going so far as to claim that it was done to “taint India’s image”.

Against this backdrop, the 20th Party Congress was held on a strong foundation of scintillating achievements, and the march ahead for China will continue. Whether the West likes it or not, a $ 19.91 trillion economy and an assertive military will continue to make China, a formidable engine of growth and a compelling influencer of global happenings. 

The US-led West is in terminal decline and the space for global leadership has opened up for an Eastern coalition led by China. As Mao said, “the east wind is now prevailing over the west wind.” 

© Ramachandran 

SCO FOR INDIA, CHINA AND THE WORLD

The global order has to be more reasonable

As the leaders of China, Russia, and India, with the new member Iran, huddled together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit at Samarkand in Uzbekistan, the West waited on pins and needles to gauge and interpret the outcome.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi were among the leaders of the 15 countries at the summit.

Both Xi’s and Modi’s presence were closely watched for the possibility of bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit. The last time Xi and Modi were face-to-face and in-person and had a bilateral meeting was in November 2019, during the BRICS summit in Brazil. Both met in an informal summit at Mahabalipuram, India, in October 2019, the second one after they met at Wuhan, in April 2018.

The SCO summits in the last two years were held in a virtual format due to COVID-19. This was the first in-person summit after June 2019 when the SCO summit was held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Last year, the summit was held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in a hybrid format.

Modi with Putin and Xi

This was Xi’s first official trip to a foreign nation since COVID-19. Xi’s last official trip to a foreign country was to Myanmar in January 2020. His last trip outside of mainland China was on June 30, 2022, to Hong Kong to mark the 25th anniversary of the city’s return to the motherland in 1997.

Xi’s trip to Samarkand underlined China’s strategic ties with Central Asian states at a time when relations with many Western nations have come under strain due to China’s neutral position on the Ukrainian issue.

Xi and Putin met on the sidelines of the summit, for the first time since the Ukraine crisis. Xi said China and Russia should expand pragmatic cooperation, while Putin thanked the Chinese leader for his “balanced” stance on Ukraine. Putin expressed Russia's support for the one-China principle, and denounced US provocations in the Taiwan Straits and its attempts to create a "unipolar world."

Samarkand summit saw agreements on connectivity and high-efficiency transport corridors and a roadmap for local currency settlement among member states. It deliberated on the geopolitical situation arising from Ukraine. Besides, the situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime was on the table as well since many SCO member countries are neighbours of Afghanistan.

After the signing of the Samarkand declaration, the heads of the SCO countries declared the inadmissibility of interference in the affairs of states under the pretext of countering terrorism. The SCO countries supported the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the continuation of nuclear disarmament.

The Samarkand declaration also termed unilateral use of economic sanctions, except those imposed by the UN Security Council, is incompatible with international law principles. The SCO countries emphasized the importance of the soonest inclusive reform of WTO with an emphasis on adaptation to current economic realities.

The declaration advocated a “commitment to peaceful settlement of differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation.”

Uzbekistan and China signed agreements worth a total of US$15 billion in trade, investment and financial and technical cooperation. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan also signed a trilateral MOU regarding cooperation on a railway connecting the three countries, while a trial run of the multimodal road-rail link from China to Afghanistan is also being planned.

To further promote the rich cultural and historical heritage of the people and the tourism potential of SCO member states, it was decided to declare Varanasi, Modi's constituency, as the SCO Tourism and Cultural Capital for 2022-2023, the Samarkand declaration said.

The Mission of SCO

Founded in Shanghai in June 2001, the Beijing-headquartered SCO is a nine-member economic and security bloc consisting of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan and now Iran. It has three Observer States interested in acceding to full membership (Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia) and nine Dialogue Partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt).

It is a unique plurilateral grouping that holds two summits a year, one at the Heads of State and the other at the Heads of Government level. It is seen by the West as an eastern counterbalance to NATO. The presence of India and China, the world’s most populous countries, makes SCO the organization with the largest population coverage. The SCO accounts for about one-third of the world’s land and exports trillions of dollars annually.

The SCO, which grew from the “Shanghai Five” pact of the mid-1990s, is governed by consensus. It also functions more as a venue for discussion and engagement where high-level dignitaries from across the region can gather to confer, rather than an alliance like the EU, whose members have a common currency, or NATO. Since its inception, the SCO has mainly focused on regional security issues, and its fight is against regional terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism. The SCO’s priorities also include regional development.

The Dushanbe Declaration on the 20th anniversary of the founding of the SCO last year expressed support for Afghanistan as an independent, neutral, united, democratic and peaceful state, free of terrorism, war and drugs. It is critical to have an inclusive government in Afghanistan, with representatives from all ethnic, religious and political groups of Afghan society.

Summit

The declaration also condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. Member States reaffirmed the need to step up joint efforts to prevent terrorism and its financing, including by implementing existing global standards on combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism and by suppressing the spread of terrorist, separatist and extremist ideologies that feed it.

The declaration emphasized the importance of sharing experiences on the design and implementation of national development strategies, digital economy plans and the adoption of innovative technologies. It stressed the need to increase mutually beneficial cooperation in the energy sector, including the wide use of renewable and alternative energy sources.

The Entry of Iran

The SCO Samarkand Summit also assumed significance as Iran, for the first time, attended as a full member. The decision to admit Iran was made at last year’s Dushanbe Summit and Belarus has submitted its membership application. This was the first expansion of the SCO after India and Pakistan were admitted to the grouping in 2017.

This marks the first time Iran has become a full member of a major regional bloc since its 1979 revolution. Iran’s bid to become a full member of SCO was approved after almost 15 years. The country had been an “observer member” since 2005. Full membership means linking Iran to the economic infrastructures of Asia and its vast resources.

Iran is eyeing political and economic gains, especially with China, with which it signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement in March 2021, and Russia, with which Iran is looking to expand a pre-existing cooperation agreement. Iran could gain significant access to the Central Asian region, which can be regarded as a market for exports of Iranian goods.

U.S. sanctions could prove to be roadblocks on the way to achieving those potentials should they persist, but will not halt Iran’s economic progress. Iran and world powers have conducted six rounds of talks in Vienna to restore the country’s 2015 nuclear deal, which, if successful, would see U.S. sanctions lifted.

Iran’s previous bids for SCO membership were blocked because it was under United Nations sanctions, and some members, including Tajikistan, were against it due to Tehran’s perceived support for the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan.

Article in China-India Dialogue

But at the Dushanbe Summit last year, Iran also signed eight agreements with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon. The two set a target of US$500 million for annual bilateral trade. During a speech at Dushanbe, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi denounced “unilateralism” by the U.S. and called for a concerted effort to fight sanctions.

SCO members are reluctant to entangle themselves in Iran’s rivalries and at Dushanbe, they also admitted Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt as “dialogue partners” in a balancing act.

The volume of trade with the national currencies of Iran, Russia and China has been modest even as they have discussed de-dollarization for decades, and efforts are on to launch an alternative financial messaging service to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) global financial network.

This round of expansion shows SCO’s rising international influence and the principles of the SCO charter are widely accepted. The SCO expansion is not akin to that of NATO, which is being expanded in the shadows of the Ukrainian crisis. The expansion of NATO is different as the SCO is a cooperative organization based on non-alignment and not targeting a third party, while NATO is based on a Cold War mindset.

The SCO believes one should not build its security at the expense of other countries while NATO is creating new enemies to sustain its existence. The SCO members are contemplating how to adapt to the profound changes in the global milieu, to make the global order more reasonable.

The process of Belarus's accession to the SCO has been made at Samarkand Summit. It has had a dialogue partner status since 2010 and an observer status since 2015. The new decision does not mean an automatic change in the status of the country. According to the provision on SCO accession of 11 June 2010, an applying country should join around 40 international treaties and make respective changes in the national legislation. It took around two years for India and Pakistan to carry out these procedures.

Negotiations will be held on granting UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Maldives and Myanmar the status of dialogue partners.

SCO for India and China

As a prelude to the Samarkand Summit, the disengagement between India and China in the Gogra-Hot Springs region opened a window of opportunity for the two sides to engage at the highest level.

India assumed the rotational presidency of the SCO at the end of the Samarkand Summit. Delhi will hold the presidency of the grouping for a year until September 2023. So, next year, India will host the SCO summit.

Modi, speaking at the Samarkand summit said he wants to transform India into a manufacturing hub. He pointed out that there are more than 70,000 start-ups and over 100 unicorns in India, and that the country is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The SCO’s significance for India mainly lies in economics and geopolitics with the Eurasian states. It is a potential platform to advance India’s Central Asia policy. The SCO member states are India’s extended neighbourhood where India has both economic and security interests.

The SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group to stabilize Afghanistan provides India with a vital counter to some other groupings it is a part of. The SCO provides the only multilateral platform for India to deal with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Leaders at Samarkand

Acknowledging the strategic importance of the region and SCO, Modi has articulated the foundational dimension of Eurasia as being “secure.” India needs to improve connectivity with Central Asia through the Chabahar port in Southeastern Iran and it wishes to utilize the Ashgabat Agreement for a stronger presence in Eurasia along with a focus on the International North-South Corridor (INSTC).

The Ashgabat Agreement is a multimodal transport agreement between the governments of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, India, Pakistan, and Oman for creating an international transport and transit corridor facilitating the transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. The agreement came into force in April 2016. Ashgabat in Turkmenistan is the depository state for the agreement.

The SCO has also been involved in building the Vladivostok-Chennai sea route. This sea route covers approximately 5,600 nautical miles or about 10,300 km. A large container ship travelling at the average cruising speed of 20-25 knots, or 37-46 km/hour, should be able to cover the distance in 10-12 days. India is building nuclear power plants with Russia’s collaboration in Kudankulam on the sea coast in Tamil Nadu’s Tirunelveli district. The opening of a sea route is likely to help in the project.

India also wishes to use SCO’s goal of promoting economic cooperation, trade, energy, and regional connectivity to improve relations with Pakistan and persuade it to unblock India’s access to Eurasia.

The increasing terrorist activities in the region make it imperative for SCO countries to develop a cooperative and sustainable security framework and make the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure more effective.

A major thorn in India’s engagement with Eurasia remains the denial of direct land connectivity to Afghanistan and beyond by Pakistan. The lack of connectivity has dampened the development of energy ties between the hydrocarbon-rich region and India.

But China is clearly in the strongest position. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have signed on to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and those like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are dependent on Chinese investments. China accounts for 45.3 per cent of Kyrgyzstan's external debt, and China has built a military base there recently. It is to be owned by Tajikistan’s Rapid Reaction Group (Special Forces) with the US$10 million costs financed by China. It will be located in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous province near the Pamir mountains. Chinese troops will not be stationed there.  

Loans from China account for 16 -17 per cent of the GDP of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

And Kazakhstan, which borders China’s northwestern Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, traditionally leaned towards Russia – in January it called on Moscow for assistance to quell mass protests – it is also interested in China and its “deep pockets.” Its support, as a Muslim country, is important for China.

On 25 January 2022,  Xi Jinping hosted the five leaders of Central Asia to commemorate the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Central Asian countries. In this Summit, China announced to increase in the trade target between China and the region to USD 70 billion by 2030. A provision of USD 500 million was made to assist Central Asian countries over the next three years in their implementation of “socially significant” projects.  The Central Asian region is rich in natural resources: gas in Turkmenistan; oil, gas and uranium in Kazakhstan; uranium and gas in Uzbekistan; hydropower in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

On its part, keeping its independent diplomacy, India had stayed away from the trade pillar of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) meeting in Los Angeles on September 8-9. India’s Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal cited concerns over possible discrimination against developing economies. India was the only one of the 14 IPEF countries, which include Southeast Asian countries, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, not to join the declaration on trade. It means New Delhi will not be cheated by Washington easily.

Hence, SCO, like BRICS, is a vehicle for India and China to co-exist peacefully for the current era to be viewed as the Asian century. Towards that goal, the Samarkand Summit is a new milestone.

This article was published in China Pictorial: http://china-pictorial.com.cn/scos-growing-influence-in-a-multipolar-world

China-IndiaDialogue: http://chinaindiadialogue.com/scos-growing-influence-in-a-multipolar-world

© Ramachandran