Sunday, 23 October 2022

CHINA: THE MEANING OF CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

Taiwan in the amendment

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (NCCPC) established Xi Jinping's core position in the Party, the Central Committee and the guiding role of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and it set the rejuvenation of China on "an irreversible historical course."

Xi’s role as the “core” of the party was reaffirmed in amendments to the party’s constitution approved by Congress on the closing day.

A resolution said that the “Two Establishes”, which define Xi as the “core leader” of the Party and his thoughts as the guiding principles of China’s future development, were the major political achievements of the Party.

This follows the introduction in 2021, into the constitution, of the "Two Establishes" idea, which confirmed Xi as the core of the Party and its Central Committee (CC), and the guiding force of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era.”

To better reflect “new achievements” under Xi’s leadership, the delegates agreed to add “new developments” in the past five years to the section on “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”.


Xi Jinping after the Congress

Also added to the constitution was a reference to further elevating the party’s status in public life, referring to “the party as the supreme leading power”, and urging it to “continue to strengthen the comprehensive leadership of the party”.

The Congress, which retained Xi as Party General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, will also be etched in the annals of history forever, as it confirmed President Xi for an unprecedented third term. 

The Party has now broken a rule established two decades ago by outgoing President Jiang Zemin: a retirement age of 68. 

The foundations for Xi’s third term were laid in 2018 when the National People’s Congress voted to remove the two-term bar for presidents that had been introduced by Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 to 1989.

Xi is only the third leader in modern China to have an ideology in his name after “Mao Zedong Thought” and “Deng Xiaoping Theory”.

The amendment of the constitution indicates Xi’s authority. At the last national congress in 2017, Xi’s eponymous ideology of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era was first enshrined in the party constitution, alongside the doctrines of Mao and Deng, elevating Xi to their level.

The post of Chairman, which Mao held, was abolished after he died in 1976. The system of the general secretary as head of state began with Jiang Zemin, who was general secretary from 1989 to 2002 becoming President in 1993.

Half the members of the 25-person Politburo, aged out under the retirement rule.

Four members of the Politburo Standing Committee retired: Premier Li Keqiang, 67; National People’s Congress chairman Li Zhanshu, 72; Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference chairman Wang Yang, 67; and Vice-Premier Han Zheng, 68.

They were replaced by  Li Qiang, 63, Li Xi, 66,  Ding Xuexiang 60, and Cai Qi, 66. Together with Wang Huning, 67, and anti-corruption chief Zhao Leji, 65, they form the new Politburo Standing Committee, led by Xi Jinping.

Li Keqiang, 67, the Premier, is not in the C C and will step down, according to the constitution, having completed two terms. The new PM will be Li Qiang, since he is the second in the hierarchy, after Xi.

Li Xi, 66, the Guangdong Party Chief is among the 133 new members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) and is the only member in the body who is on the 25-strong Politburo. He is on track to become the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, replacing Zhao Leji.

A surprise exit from the Central Committee is, Chen Quanguo, 66, the former party chief of both Xinjiang and Tibet. He was promoted to the Politburo, the party’s highest policymaking body, five years ago. Transport Minister Li Xiaopeng, 63, the son of former National People’s Congress chairman and Chinese premier Li Peng, central bank governor Yi Gang, 64, and Guo Shuqing, 66, the head of China’s banking regulator have also exited from the C C.

Senior diplomat Yang Jiechi and Vice-Premier Liu He retired from the CC. 

However, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, 69, is among the new Central Committee members.  He took up the Politburo seat vacated by Yang Jiechi, who retired.


Once viewed as a top candidate for China’s uppermost echelon of leadership, Hu Chunhua, 59, Vice Premier, exited the Politburo. He has been an enforcer of Xi’s poverty alleviation project.

Breaking the age rule, General Zhang Youxia, 72, Vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, finds a place in the latest C C. to take up a superior position. But Vice-chairman General Xu Qiliang, Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe and Joint Staff Department chief General Li Zuocheng have all reached 68 and are absent from the new C C. General Miao Hua, chief of the CMC’s Political Work Department, and General Zhang Shengmin, head of military discipline, are still in the C C. Both are under 68.

Vice-premier Sun Chunlan, 72, the sole female Politburo member, retired without replacement. It is the first time in 25 years there has been no woman in the decision-making body.

Though age is still considered, cadres are evaluated according to a matrix of myriad factors including background and efficiency. One of the criteria for President Xi Jinping in picking his top team was the candidates’ ability to “struggle” with the West to circumvent sanctions and safeguard national security, according to state news agency Xinhua. “Party secretary Xi Jinping personally took charge of the planning and personally took charge of the gatekeeping,” the report said.

Appointments to central government positions will be finalized in March during the annual session of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament. Xi will assume another term of presidency then.


The new PB standing committee

The highest-ranking body in the state apparatus is the National People's Congress (NPC), which meets annually, typically in March. The NPC elects the president - a role which, since 1993, has been held by the Party's general secretary. The president in turn nominates the premier, ratified by the NPC, who presides over the State Council or the cabinet.

Xi would, upon completion of this extended tenure of five years, have ruled over China for longer than any leader barring Mao, who held power for 33 years.

Xi's appointment as Shanghai’s top official 15 years ago at the age of 53, set him up for a seat on the PSC at the party congress held in 2007. He and Li Keqiang jumped two spots to reach the Standing Committee, then, which is rare.

Held every five years, the Congress has three main tasks: to endorse leadership transitions; to approve changes to the party constitution, and to deliberate on policy issues. In all, 2,338 delegates represented almost 97 million Communist Party members. 

While Jiang Zemin, 96 and Zhu Rongji, 93, could not attend the Congress, Song Ping, 105, the most senior retired Politburo Standing Committee member was present.

In the Party hierarchy, the most important bodies are the NCCPC and the C C. The NCCPC elects the CC, while the general secretary, politburo, and Politburo Standing Committees are elected at the first plenum of the Central Committee held after the NCCPC.

Nested within the 25-member top body, Politburo is the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). New PSC members replace those who retire according to a convention, qishang baxia, or  “seven up, eight down”. The age of retirement is 68 years, and the oldest new entrant can be  67.

The changes this time resulted in a more homogeneous CC than ever in terms of age and experience. Members in their mid-50s and 60s occupy most of the seats in CC.

Blueprint for modernization


During these momentous changes, Xi gave China’s foreign policy a new direction than ever before. He also sought to increase Beijing’s global reach through his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Xi set priorities in a landmark 2013 speech to prevent China from meeting the same fate as the Soviet Union. Since rising to the top in 2012, Xi has cracked down on corruption in the CCP and introduced several new bodies in the party. As chair of China’s Central Military Commission, Xi controls the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). 

Following the Party’s 18th National Congress, Xi, as general secretary, set forth a series of original strategies for governance, and China’s economic development became much more balanced and sustainable. 

Xi's view that China faces a deteriorating external situation in its relations with the United States also set the scene.

China’s emergence as the second-largest economy with military might, over the last two decades, made the happenings at the Congress of compelling interest to the rest of the world. The Congress promised continuity, reorientation, and a paradigm shift in policy and governance.

The signals for changes to the long-term structural policy are in line with the major elements of Xi's thoughts in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Released in early 2021, it includes long-term objectives through 2035.

Hence, in his work report to the Congress, Xi said that the effort will be “to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization."

Xi observed that the next five years will be crucial for ensuring that the efforts to build a modern socialist country in all respects get off to a good start.

It is because China is now following a zero Covid policy. China set a modest growth target of 5.5 per cent this year, but the World Bank said last month it would be just 2.8 per cent, much lower than the 5.3 per cent for “developing East Asia and the Pacific outside of China”.

Add to it, there are also concerns about a global recession, which has been reflected in China’s real estate sector, which constitutes 30 per cent of the country’s GDP, and commercial banks are exposed to it.

Though Congress has not put forth macroeconomic policy solutions, it reiterated “Common Prosperity,” the slogan that Mao gave during China’s years of great impoverishment, Deng resurrected to justify the economic reforms of the 1980s, and Xi promoted. In Xi’s view, “Common Prosperity” will be achieved only by closing out inequalities.

Gradually, Mao’s dream is getting fulfilled. At the eighth Congress in May 1958, he envisaged an industrialized nation, which he summarized by the slogan, “Three Red Banners,’ ie, “go all out, aim high, and build socialism with greater, faster, better and more economical results.”

Taiwan and strategic deterrence

At the close of the Congress, the Party added, “fully, faithfully, and resolutely implementing the policy of One Country, Two Systems; resolutely opposing and deterring separatists seeking Taiwan independence" to its constitution, the first time such an explicit reference has been included in the document to address tensions around the island.

Hinting at the amendment, in his report to the Congress, Xi favoured a hardline approach to relations with the West, particularly over Taiwan.

On Taiwan, Xi reiterated striving for complete reunification in a peaceful way, but said "we will never promise to renounce the use of force". Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China's complete reunification is, for the Party, “a historic mission and an unshakable commitment”, he said.

He was obviously referring to the visit to Taiwan by the U S Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August which prompted China to launch military exercises around the island. 

He pointed out that “resolving the Taiwan issue is a matter for Chinese people themselves, and must be resolved by Chinese people alone.”

Xi has said in the past that "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fulfilled" by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would shatter US power in the western Pacific Ocean and beyond. Taiwan is part of the so-called "first island chain", which has been allied with the US for decades.

But, while the Congress was on, Taiwan signed a $77.8 million service contract with the U.S. to maintain the performance of its Patriot air-defence systems in intercepting missiles.  Under the five-year contract, which will expire at the end of 2027, the U.S. will send experts to Taiwan.

On Hong Kong and Macao, Xi said, China will implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, under which the people of Hong Kong administer Hong Kong and the people of Macao administer Macao. He warned that “we will crack down hard on anti-China elements who attempt to create chaos in Hong Kong and Macao”. 

Beijing imposed an all-out national security law in Hong Kong after the turmoil in 2019.

China also has territorial claims in the South China Sea. Its “nine-dash line” laying claim was ruled unlawful by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague in 2016, but Beijing has refused to recognise the decision.


The new PB standing committee members

Global Times reported that delegates from Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Southwest China's Xizang Autonomous Region spoke highly of Xi’s report to the Congress, vowing to fully implement the Party's guidelines.

At the Congress, without naming the U.S., Xi remarked: "China... resolutely opposes all forms of hegemony and power politics, opposes the Cold War mentality, opposes interfering in other countries domestic politics, opposes double standards," and  "will never seek hegemony and will never engage in expansion".

Just ahead of Congress, the American national security strategy issued by the Joe Biden Administration (US NSS) affirmed that China remains its greatest threat. In his foreword to the NSS, Biden says “Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown.” He names China, on the other hand, as “the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that objective”.

It means the Biden Administration now sees the Indo-Pacific as the principal strategic theatre.

On security, Xi said in his report: “We will establish a strong system of strategic deterrence, increase the proportion of new-domain forces with new combat capabilities, and speed up the development of unmanned, intelligent combat capabilities.”

The country’s 14th five-year plan report released last year emphasised the need to “build a high-standard strategic deterrence”.

Strategic deterrence is the will and ability to wield military power to prevent the use of force by another state and to dissuade adversaries from launching a nuclear attack.

And, China had become a nuclear power, exactly 58 years ago, on October 16, 1964.

The U.S. tried to show the crudest form of hegemony towards China by imposing tough export regulations targeting China’s semiconductor industry,  just before the Party Congress. It was a gesture designed to humiliate China. The sweeping new export controls are aimed at cutting off China from obtaining chips used in supercomputers. The sanctions prevent the sales and service by US businesses to Chinese chip manufacturers. Aware of this, Beijing has made contingency plans to deflect the U.S. action. The U.S. is concerned that Chinese chip manufacturers were rather closer to attaining parity with US technologies than previously thought.

The Netherlands’ AMSL is the world’s biggest supplier of advanced chipmaking gear, and Washington is threatening the company with exclusion from the US market unless it bans sales to China.

The West is also peeved by other strategies led by China. The leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the recent summit at Samarkand chalked out a road map to conduct bilateral trade and investment and issue bonds in local and national currencies instead of US dollars and UK Pounds or Euros, seeking an end to the dollar hegemony.

Former US President Donald Trump had deeply weaponised the dollar during Covid and trade with China was labelled a ‘war’. There have been unilateral sanctions placed on perceived threats and ‘enemy' countries. Countries like China, at the receiving end, have been preparing to hit back, and now it has become a reality.

The U.S. has a lot to worry about since it is the world's largest debtor nation, with an accumulated federal debt now topping $28 trillion. China holds $980.8 billion of U.S. Treasurys—3.2% of the total U.S. debt.

But, China is reducing its share in U.S. treasury bonds and preparing for currency swap facilities as part of the BRI and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with South-East Asian countries. Most of the ASEAN countries are ready for this.

China is already a heavyweight, with its $19 trillion economy. For more than a century, no U.S. adversary or coalition of adversaries had reached 60 per cent of the US GDP. And yet, China reached this milestone quietly in 2014. When one adjusts for the relative price of goods, China’s economy is already 25 per cent larger than the U.S. It is clear, then, that China is the most belligerent competitor that the U. S. has ever faced.

President Biden's absurd declaration that Covid is over, makes it clear that the U. S. economy is sick.

 Xiaokang-China shows the way


Contrary to the expectations of western analysts, Xi reiterated at the Congress that economic development is the Communist Party’s “top priority,” signalling that Beijing will continue to emphasize growth. “Development is the party’s top priority in governance,” he said.

Since Xi has been highlighting the need to balance security concerns with economic growth since 2020, Western analysts prophesied that Xi would drop the development-first focus. 

But in his report to Congress, Xi stuck to the party’s goal for per-capita GDP to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035. At the same time, he  mentioned  the need to “balance development with security."

He said that China has entered a period of development in which strategic opportunities, risks and challenges are concurrent and uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising.

Warning of various unpredictable dangerous events ("black swans") and foreseeable but unaddressed dangers ("grey rhinos") that may occur at any time, he urged Party members to be more mindful of potential dangers, be prepared to deal with worst-case scenarios, and be ready to "withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms".

Xi repeated the party’s key economic policies, including “dual circulation.” Dual circulation involves expanding domestic demand, focusing on the domestic market, improving the country's capacity for innovation, reducing dependence on foreign markets, and at the same time remaining open to the outside world. 


Xi and Li Qiang after the Congress

China has accomplished its first centenary goal of building xiaokang - a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2021 and to start the second centenary goal of building a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049.  "By xiaokang, we need to achieve a per capita GNP of $800", Deng Xiao Ping elaborated on multiple occasions.

Hard work brought dividends. China's GDP in 1952 was 67.9 billion yuan with per capita GDP at 119 yuan, while in 1978, the GDP increased to 367.9 billion yuan and the per capita GDP in that year was 385 yuan, according to a white paper on China's xiaokang issued in 2021.

At the same time, China's list of trading partners, which numbered in the 40s in 1978, grew to 231 economies in 2017. In 2010, China's per capita GDP tripled from India's $1,358.

Impact on Covid policy


China's zero Covid policy is one of Xi's landmark strategies and in the report to Congress, he said the policy was an "all-out people's war to stop the spread of the virus."


At a recent Politburo meeting, Xi said the issue should be viewed as long-term and systematic and, from a political perspective, in terms of the relationship between pandemic control and economic development. 

Congress didn't offer any policy changes like an easing of regulations and further cyclical stimulus. It was because the NCCPC is a forum for long-term structural policy, rather than short-term cyclical policy.

Alleviation of poverty


At the Congress, Xi said the Party “has won the largest battle against poverty in human history”.

While the West waited for China’s impoverishment, the country took the lead in alleviating poverty. There was a feeling of contentment in the Congress, because the World Bank’s latest report, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022, recognised China to have reduced poverty at historically unprecedented levels.

Intending to provide lessons to other developing countries, the World Bank and China’s Ministry of Finance undertook a study in 2019 to understand how China did it and the study was published earlier this year.

The World Bank found that during 1978 - 2019, China’s poverty headcount dropped from 770 million to 5.5 million people. China lifted 765 million people from extreme poverty in the past four decades.

It means, on average, every year China pulled 19 million poor people out of extreme poverty. In doing so, China accounted for almost 75 per cent of the global reduction in extreme poverty.

In 2021, China declared that it has eradicated extreme poverty.

Taken together, improvements in health, education, and income during this period are reflected in China’s rising position on the Human Development Index from 106 (out of 144 countries) in 1990 to 85 (out of 189 countries) in 2019.

It is a lesson for global policymakers, especially for India, because China is comparable to India in terms of population size. Perhaps, China’s achievement was churning the mind of Dattatreya Hosabale, general secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), when he lamented thus, recently: “Over 20 crore (200 million) people who live here (in India) are below the below poverty line. Around 23 crores (230 million) people are having (just) an income of Rs 375 ($4.5) per day. The unemployment rate is also very distressing at 7.6 per cent. There is poverty, and unemployment in the country but we also need to discuss the rising inequality.”

The RSS is the Hindu nationalist organization that moulded the character of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

To add to India’s woes, the latest edition of the Global Hunger Index report, released by Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe, based in Germany, ranked India 107th out of 121 countries that could be ranked and 136 countries that were assessed.  The Indian government responded by summarily dismissing the report, going so far as to claim that it was done to “taint India’s image”.

Against this backdrop, the 20th Party Congress was held on a strong foundation of scintillating achievements, and the march ahead for China will continue. Whether the West likes it or not, a $ 19.91 trillion economy and an assertive military will continue to make China, a formidable engine of growth and a compelling influencer of global happenings. 

The US-led West is in terminal decline and the space for global leadership has opened up for an Eastern coalition led by China. As Mao said, “the east wind is now prevailing over the west wind.” 



© Ramachandran 









Thursday, 13 October 2022

SCO FOR INDIA, CHINA AND THE WORLD

The global order has to be more reasonable

As the leaders of China, Russia, and India, with the new member Iran, huddled together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit at Samarkand in Uzbekistan, the West waited on pins and needles to gauge and interpret the outcome.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi were among the leaders of the 15 countries at the summit.

Both Xi’s and Modi’s presence were closely watched for the possibility of bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit. The last time Xi and Modi were face-to-face and in-person and had a bilateral meeting was in November 2019, during the BRICS summit in Brazil. Both met in an informal summit at Mahabalipuram, India, in October 2019, the second one after they met at Wuhan, in April 2018.

The SCO summits in the last two years were held in a virtual format due to COVID-19. This was the first in-person summit after June 2019 when the SCO summit was held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Last year, the summit was held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in a hybrid format.

Modi with Putin and Xi

This was Xi’s first official trip to a foreign nation since COVID-19. Xi’s last official trip to a foreign country was to Myanmar in January 2020. His last trip outside of mainland China was on June 30, 2022, to Hong Kong to mark the 25th anniversary of the city’s return to the motherland in 1997.

Xi’s trip to Samarkand underlined China’s strategic ties with Central Asian states at a time when relations with many Western nations have come under strain due to China’s neutral position on the Ukrainian issue.

Xi and Putin met on the sidelines of the summit, for the first time since the Ukraine crisis. Xi said China and Russia should expand pragmatic cooperation, while Putin thanked the Chinese leader for his “balanced” stance on Ukraine. Putin expressed Russia's support for the one-China principle, and denounced US provocations in the Taiwan Straits and its attempts to create a "unipolar world."

Samarkand summit saw agreements on connectivity and high-efficiency transport corridors and a roadmap for local currency settlement among member states. It deliberated on the geopolitical situation arising from Ukraine. Besides, the situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime was on the table as well since many SCO member countries are neighbours of Afghanistan.

After the signing of the Samarkand declaration, the heads of the SCO countries declared the inadmissibility of interference in the affairs of states under the pretext of countering terrorism. The SCO countries supported the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the continuation of nuclear disarmament.

The Samarkand declaration also termed unilateral use of economic sanctions, except those imposed by the UN Security Council, is incompatible with international law principles. The SCO countries emphasized the importance of the soonest inclusive reform of WTO with an emphasis on adaptation to current economic realities.

The declaration advocated a “commitment to peaceful settlement of differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation.”

Uzbekistan and China signed agreements worth a total of US$15 billion in trade, investment and financial and technical cooperation. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan also signed a trilateral MOU regarding cooperation on a railway connecting the three countries, while a trial run of the multimodal road-rail link from China to Afghanistan is also being planned.

To further promote the rich cultural and historical heritage of the people and the tourism potential of SCO member states, it was decided to declare Varanasi, Modi's constituency, as the SCO Tourism and Cultural Capital for 2022-2023, the Samarkand declaration said.

The Mission of SCO

Founded in Shanghai in June 2001, the Beijing-headquartered SCO is a nine-member economic and security bloc consisting of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan and now Iran. It has three Observer States interested in acceding to full membership (Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia) and nine Dialogue Partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt).

It is a unique plurilateral grouping that holds two summits a year, one at the Heads of State and the other at the Heads of Government level. It is seen by the West as an eastern counterbalance to NATO. The presence of India and China, the world’s most populous countries, makes SCO the organization with the largest population coverage. The SCO accounts for about one-third of the world’s land and exports trillions of dollars annually.

The SCO, which grew from the “Shanghai Five” pact of the mid-1990s, is governed by consensus. It also functions more as a venue for discussion and engagement where high-level dignitaries from across the region can gather to confer, rather than an alliance like the EU, whose members have a common currency, or NATO. Since its inception, the SCO has mainly focused on regional security issues, and its fight is against regional terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism. The SCO’s priorities also include regional development.

The Dushanbe Declaration on the 20th anniversary of the founding of the SCO last year expressed support for Afghanistan as an independent, neutral, united, democratic and peaceful state, free of terrorism, war and drugs. It is critical to have an inclusive government in Afghanistan, with representatives from all ethnic, religious and political groups of Afghan society.

Summit

The declaration also condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. Member States reaffirmed the need to step up joint efforts to prevent terrorism and its financing, including by implementing existing global standards on combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism and by suppressing the spread of terrorist, separatist and extremist ideologies that feed it.

The declaration emphasized the importance of sharing experiences on the design and implementation of national development strategies, digital economy plans and the adoption of innovative technologies. It stressed the need to increase mutually beneficial cooperation in the energy sector, including the wide use of renewable and alternative energy sources.

The Entry of Iran

The SCO Samarkand Summit also assumed significance as Iran, for the first time, attended as a full member. The decision to admit Iran was made at last year’s Dushanbe Summit and Belarus has submitted its membership application. This was the first expansion of the SCO after India and Pakistan were admitted to the grouping in 2017.

This marks the first time Iran has become a full member of a major regional bloc since its 1979 revolution. Iran’s bid to become a full member of SCO was approved after almost 15 years. The country had been an “observer member” since 2005. Full membership means linking Iran to the economic infrastructures of Asia and its vast resources.

Iran is eyeing political and economic gains, especially with China, with which it signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement in March 2021, and Russia, with which Iran is looking to expand a pre-existing cooperation agreement. Iran could gain significant access to the Central Asian region, which can be regarded as a market for exports of Iranian goods.

U.S. sanctions could prove to be roadblocks on the way to achieving those potentials should they persist, but will not halt Iran’s economic progress. Iran and world powers have conducted six rounds of talks in Vienna to restore the country’s 2015 nuclear deal, which, if successful, would see U.S. sanctions lifted.

Iran’s previous bids for SCO membership were blocked because it was under United Nations sanctions, and some members, including Tajikistan, were against it due to Tehran’s perceived support for the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan.
Article in China-India Dialogue

But at the Dushanbe Summit last year, Iran also signed eight agreements with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon. The two set a target of US$500 million for annual bilateral trade. During a speech at Dushanbe, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi denounced “unilateralism” by the U.S. and called for a concerted effort to fight sanctions.

SCO members are reluctant to entangle themselves in Iran’s rivalries and at Dushanbe, they also admitted Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt as “dialogue partners” in a balancing act.

The volume of trade with the national currencies of Iran, Russia and China has been modest even as they have discussed de-dollarization for decades, and efforts are on to launch an alternative financial messaging service to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) global financial network.

This round of expansion shows SCO’s rising international influence and the principles of the SCO charter are widely accepted. The SCO expansion is not akin to that of NATO, which is being expanded in the shadows of the Ukrainian crisis. The expansion of NATO is different as the SCO is a cooperative organization based on non-alignment and not targeting a third party, while NATO is based on a Cold War mindset.

The SCO believes one should not build its security at the expense of other countries while NATO is creating new enemies to sustain its existence. The SCO members are contemplating how to adapt to the profound changes in the global milieu, to make the global order more reasonable.

The process of Belarus's accession to the SCO has been made at Samarkand Summit. It has had a dialogue partner status since 2010 and an observer status since 2015. The new decision does not mean an automatic change in the status of the country. According to the provision on SCO accession of 11 June 2010, an applying country should join around 40 international treaties and make respective changes in the national legislation. It took around two years for India and Pakistan to carry out these procedures.

Negotiations will be held on granting UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Maldives and Myanmar the status of dialogue partners.

SCO for India and China

As a prelude to the Samarkand Summit, the disengagement between India and China in the Gogra-Hot Springs region opened a window of opportunity for the two sides to engage at the highest level.

India assumed the rotational presidency of the SCO at the end of the Samarkand Summit. Delhi will hold the presidency of the grouping for a year until September 2023. So, next year, India will host the SCO summit.

Modi, speaking at the Samarkand summit said he wants to transform India into a manufacturing hub. He pointed out that there are more than 70,000 start-ups and over 100 unicorns in India, and that the country is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The SCO’s significance for India mainly lies in economics and geopolitics with the Eurasian states. It is a potential platform to advance India’s Central Asia policy. The SCO member states are India’s extended neighbourhood where India has both economic and security interests.

The SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group to stabilize Afghanistan provides India with a vital counter to some other groupings it is a part of. The SCO provides the only multilateral platform for India to deal with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Leaders at Samarkand

Acknowledging the strategic importance of the region and SCO, Modi has articulated the foundational dimension of Eurasia as being “secure.” India needs to improve connectivity with Central Asia through the Chabahar port in Southeastern Iran and it wishes to utilize the Ashgabat Agreement for a stronger presence in Eurasia along with a focus on the International North-South Corridor (INSTC).

The Ashgabat Agreement is a multimodal transport agreement between the governments of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, India, Pakistan, and Oman for creating an international transport and transit corridor facilitating the transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. The agreement came into force in April 2016. Ashgabat in Turkmenistan is the depository state for the agreement.

The SCO has also been involved in building the Vladivostok-Chennai sea route. This sea route covers approximately 5,600 nautical miles or about 10,300 km. A large container ship travelling at the average cruising speed of 20-25 knots, or 37-46 km/hour, should be able to cover the distance in 10-12 days. India is building nuclear power plants with Russia’s collaboration in Kudankulam on the sea coast in Tamil Nadu’s Tirunelveli district. The opening of a sea route is likely to help in the project.

India also wishes to use SCO’s goal of promoting economic cooperation, trade, energy, and regional connectivity to improve relations with Pakistan and persuade it to unblock India’s access to Eurasia.

The increasing terrorist activities in the region make it imperative for SCO countries to develop a cooperative and sustainable security framework and make the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure more effective.

A major thorn in India’s engagement with Eurasia remains the denial of direct land connectivity to Afghanistan and beyond by Pakistan. The lack of connectivity has dampened the development of energy ties between the hydrocarbon-rich region and India.

But China is clearly in the strongest position. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have signed on to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and those like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are dependent on Chinese investments. China accounts for 45.3 per cent of Kyrgyzstan's external debt, and China has built a military base there recently. It is to be owned by Tajikistan’s Rapid Reaction Group (Special Forces) with the US$10 million costs financed by China. It will be located in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous province near the Pamir mountains. Chinese troops will not be stationed there.  

Loans from China account for 16 -17 per cent of the GDP of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

And Kazakhstan, which borders China’s northwestern Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, traditionally leaned towards Russia – in January it called on Moscow for assistance to quell mass protests – it is also interested in China and its “deep pockets.” Its support, as a Muslim country, is important for China.

On 25 January 2022,  Xi Jinping hosted the five leaders of Central Asia to commemorate the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Central Asian countries. In this Summit, China announced to increase in the trade target between China and the region to USD 70 billion by 2030. A provision of USD 500 million was made to assist Central Asian countries over the next three years in their implementation of “socially significant” projects.  The Central Asian region is rich in natural resources: gas in Turkmenistan; oil, gas and uranium in Kazakhstan; uranium and gas in Uzbekistan; hydropower in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

On its part, keeping its independent diplomacy, India had stayed away from the trade pillar of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) meeting in Los Angeles on September 8-9. India’s Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal cited concerns over possible discrimination against developing economies. India was the only one of the 14 IPEF countries, which include Southeast Asian countries, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, not to join the declaration on trade. It means New Delhi will not be cheated by Washington easily.

Hence, SCO, like BRICS, is a vehicle for India and China to co-exist peacefully for the current era to be viewed as the Asian century. Towards that goal, the Samarkand Summit is a new milestone.




© Ramachandran 









Thursday, 6 October 2022

1962: THE WAR WITHIN CHINA AND NEHRU'S BLUNDER


Mao faced enemies within his party

In a 2019 article by Chaowu Dai, a distinguished professor at Yunnan University and director of the YNU Institute for Indian Studies in Kunming, China, admitted that from 1960 to October 1962, judging that India was unwilling to negotiate a solution, China “made preparations for the deployment of its military,” creating interlocking positions “for long-term armed coexistence on the border issue ultimately proceeding to the border conflict”1. 

This statement is nearest to the truth and India was not prepared for an attack. But the fact is that between 1960 to 1962, China was in a state of turmoil.

On September 8, 1962, Nehru left for London to attend the Commonwealth Prime Ministers’ Conference. He returned on October 2, after visiting Paris, Lagos and Accra, and then left for Colombo on October 12, returning to New Delhi on October 16. Defence Minister V K Krishna Menon was in New York from September 17-30 for the UNGA session. On October 2, the Chief of General Staff, Lt Gen B M Kaul, an inefficient close relative of Nehru, was holidaying in Kashmir.

No country that is preparing for an attack would allow its Prime Minister or senior generals responsible for war planning to be away from its capital.

Nehru with Mao in Beijing, 1954

The immediate provocation was an avoidable statement of the Prime Minister to journalists on October 12 while leaving for Colombo that “he had instructed the Army to clear the Indian territory of Chinese intrusions and the date had been left to the army to decide.”

He was perhaps referring to a decision taken in the Defence Ministry to clear the recent limited intrusion in the Kemong Division of NEFA, now Arunachal Pradesh. People’s Daily, the Chinese communist party mouthpiece, taking advantage of Nehru’s remarks, said on October 14, “so it seems Nehru had made up his mind to attack China on an even bigger scale”.

The unfortunate statement of Nehru has been used by Chinese communists to fabricate the theory of “self-defence counter-attack”. At the same time, India cannot escape blame for not being serious about settling the border question, despite repeated Chinese pleas. Whatever the Indian stand, it had certain fissures that do not stand scrutiny.

Nehru, in explaining his reluctance to discuss the border question, had said in Rajya Sabha on December 8, 1959, that since we’re “sure of our borders, the question was why to invite discussions about a thing on which we had no doubt”.

Even this statement was opaque. The western border, which created the major dispute, was “undefined” in the Survey of India maps that India inherited in 1947, and which were later reprinted. Similarly, Nehru was not unaware that China in the past had never accepted the McMahon Line in the eastern sector, the outcome of the Simla Convention of 1914, and it was unlikely to accept it — and yet insisted this was non-negotiable.

In 1954, at the time of talks on Tibet, India had taken the stand that the border question would not be discussed. An opportunity to settle the border was allowed to slip. The Tibet Agreement signed on April 29, 1954, also called the Panchsheel Agreement, officially the Agreement on Trade and Intercourse Between Tibet Region of China and India, was signed by China and India in Peking. The preamble of the agreement stated the panchsheel, or the five principles of peaceful coexistence, that China proposed and India favoured.

The agreement reflected the adjustment of the previously existing trade relations between Tibet and India to the changed context of India's decolonisation and China's assertion of suzerainty over Tibet. Swedish author and China/India expert, Bertil Lintner (3) records that in the agreement, "Tibet was referred to, for the first time in history, as 'the Tibet Region of China."The agreement expired on June 6, 1962, as per the original term limit, in the midst of Sino-Indian border tensions.

Nehru ordered in 1954 July that a line should be drawn to demarcate the Ladakh-Aksai Chin border, which would not be open for discussion — ignoring that this was an international border, and required consultations and agreement of the other stakeholder.

Having changed the status of the border unilaterally, he created a vacuum by not establishing a check post, or even unfurling a flag.

The area was neglected to the extent that India was unaware that China had constructed a 120 km highway through it. In his letter of January 23, 1959, the Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai had suggested talks since, as he said, historically no agreement on the boundary had ever been concluded, and the absence of formal delimitation created discrepancies which often led to “minor border incidents which are probably difficult to avoid”.

While these parleys were on, an event was waiting to happen, which would alter the Sino-Indian relationship forever.

Dalai Lama in India

On March 10, 1959, Chinese general Zhang Chenwu invited the Dalai Lama to a performance by a Chinese dance troupe. Soon after though, he received a message from the General asking him to appear without any soldiers or armed bodyguards. The peculiar request by the Chinese was expectedly met with a large amount of suspicion from the Tibetans who had in any case been suffering the oppression of the Chinese for over a decade.

 By the beginning of the 1950s, a large part of Tibet had been forcefully acquired by the Chinese. The next few years were witness to the Dalai Lama trying to evade a full-scale military takeover of Tibet by Chinese forces. The Chinese on the other hand had been trying their best to indoctrinate him into the Communist ideologies.

Given the backdrop of Chinese aggression in Tibet, the officials surrounding the Dalai Lama were quick to guess a sense of deceit in the Chinese invitation. As a cautionary measure, he was soon advised to escape from Tibet. On March 17, 1959, therefore, the Dalai Lama dressed up as a soldier and slipped out of the shelter of the monastery that he would never see again. Accompanying him were 20 of his officials. Barefoot, the spiritual leader made his way across the arduous Himalayan region, which included crossing the 500-yard-wide Brahmaputra river.

He finally reached India on March 30 and settled down at the Tawang monastery in Arunachal Pradesh. The following month he reached Mussoorie in present-day Uttarakhand, where he was later met by then Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru to discuss the future of the Tibetan refugees who followed him.

Meanwhile, back in Tibet the Chinese imposed a curfew in Lhasa and close to 2000 people died in the ensuing battle between the local people and the Chinese forces. Close to 800 artillery shells were fired into the summer palace of the Dalai Lama. A day later, China announced the dissolution of the Tibetan governing body and a Tibetan autonomous region was established within the People’s Republic of China.

Nehru with Dalai Lama, 1959

Politically, the arrival of the Dalai Lama in India was a crucial moment in Indo-Chinese relations. For Nehru, maintaining cordial relations with China was always seen as a diplomatic necessity. According to historian Ramachandra Guha, “Nehru saw China at once as a peer, comrade and soul mate.”

However, over time arguments emerged between India and China, particularly around the issue of border creation post the departure of the British. In this atmosphere of antagonism, India’s grant of refuge to the Dalai Lama was an essential trigger that pushed both countries to the point of the war. The Sino-Indian war of 1962 which was eventually won by China, was one of the most critical products of the Dalai Lama’s escape to India.

Five days after Dalai Lama fled with the help of the CIA, (2) on March 22, 1959, Nehru noted that the sector from the trijunction of the Nepal, India, and Tibet boundary up to Ladakh (Ladakh-Aksai Chin sector) was traditional and known by custom, usage, the application of the principle of watershed and old revenue records and maps, etc. These facts are important inputs when negotiating an agreement, but by themselves could not constitute an agreement.

Despite suffering from doubts, Nehru insisted in Rajya Sabha on December 9, 1959, that India should hold its position, hoping that “lapse of time and events would confirm it, and by the time challenge came, we would be in a much stronger position to face it”. There was an opportunity to clear the doubts at the summit talks in April 1960, but that too was allowed to slip because India insisted on China accepting its maximalist position — not realising that in a dispute, both sides have to make compromises to come to a settlement.

Even after the 1960 talks, China tried to bring India to the negotiable table many times, but Nehru’s rigidity did not help. Yet he did accept in Parliament the undemarcated status of the border.

China continued to insist on the need for a well-defined demarcation of borders on scientific lines. Unfortunately, India remained in denial. The result was 1962.

The war within

An alternate narrative is offered by Bertil Lintner, on the 1962 war. He maintains that the Chinese offensive was not a reaction to India’s “forward policy” but a pre-meditated operation, ordered well before October 1962 by Chairman Mao Zedong to divert attention from the ongoing domestic power struggle and to teach India a lesson.

Lintner cites the considerable time required to build roads, forward-deploy 80,000 PLA troops and position logistics in mountainous terrain. Lintner also attributes the detailed knowledge of Indian terrain, shown by advancing PLA troops, to months of prior reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering by Tibetan-speaking PLA officers.

Ever since the end of its Civil War in 1949, China has been engaged in serial strife, domestic as well as external; invading neighbours, Korea, Tibet, Russia, Vietnam and India. The prelude to the Sino-Indian war saw Mao launch the tumultuous and destructive Great Leap Forward, which resulted in 25-30 million deaths by starvation and state violence. In the midst of ongoing domestic turmoil and devastation, Mao’s ruthless calculus perceived advantage in mounting a military campaign to deliver a sharp blow to India, both as a distraction from the ongoing power struggle, and to prove China’s superiority.

In the spring of 1949, Mao proclaimed that, while in the past the Chinese revolution had followed the unorthodox path of “encircling the cities from the countryside,” it would in the future take the orthodox road of the cities leading and guiding the countryside. In harmony with that view, he had agreed in 1950 with Vice Chairman Liu Shaoqi that collectivization would be possible only when China’s heavy industry had provided the necessary equipment for mechanization.

In a report of July 1955, Mao reversed that position, arguing that in China the social transformation could run ahead of the technical transformation. Deeply impressed by the achievements of certain cooperatives that claimed to have radically improved their material conditions without any outside assistance, he came to believe in the limitless capacity of the Chinese people, especially of the rural masses, to transform at will both nature and their own social relations when mobilized for revolutionary goals.

He denounced those in the leadership who did not share that vision as “old women with bound feet.” He made those criticisms before an ad hoc gathering of provincial and local party secretaries, thus creating a groundswell of enthusiasm for rapid collectivization such that all those in the leadership who had expressed doubts about Mao’s ideas were soon presented with a fait accompli. The tendency thus manifested to pursue his own ends outside the collective decision-making processes of the party was to continue and to be accentuated.

Chinese farmers welcome tractors, 1958

Even before Stalin’s successor, Nikita S. Khrushchev, had given his secret speech (February 1956) denouncing his predecessor’s crimes, Mao and his colleagues had been discussing measures for improving the morale of the intellectuals in order to secure their willing participation in building a new China. At the end of April, Mao proclaimed the policy of “letting a hundred flowers bloom”—that is, the freedom to express many diverse ideas—designed to prevent the development in China of a repressive political climate analogous to that in the Soviet Union under Stalin.

In the face of the disorders called forth by de-Stalinization in Poland and Hungary, Mao did not retreat but rather pressed boldly forward with that policy, against the advice of many of his senior colleagues, in the belief that the contradictions that still existed in Chinese society were mainly nonantagonistic. When the resulting “great blooming and contending” got out of hand and called into question the axiom of party rule, Mao savagely turned against the educated elite, which he felt had betrayed his confidence. Henceforth he would rely primarily on the creativity of the rank and file as the agent of modernization. As for the specialists, if they were not yet sufficiently “red,” he would remould them by sending them to work in the countryside.

Chaos after the Great Leap Forward

It was against that background that Mao, during the winter of 1957–58, worked out the policies that were to characterize the Great Leap Forward, formally launched in May 1958. While his economic strategy was by no means so one-sided and simplistic as was commonly believed in the 1960s and ’70s and although he still proclaimed industrialization and a “technical revolution” as his goals, Mao displayed continuing anxiety regarding the corrupting influence of the fruits of technical progress and an acute nostalgia for the perceived purity and egalitarianism that had marked the moral and political world of the Jinggang Mountains and Yan’an eras.

Thus it was logical that he should endorse and promote the establishment of “people’s communes” as part of the Great Leap strategy. As a result, the peasants, who had been organized into cooperatives in 1955–56 and then into fully socialist collectives in 1956–57, found their world turned upside down once again in 1958. Neither the resources nor the administrative experience necessary to operate such enormous new social units of several thousand households was in fact available, and, not surprisingly, the consequences of those changes were chaos and economic disaster.

In retrospect, it is evident that Mao had in fact responded to the tensions in the Party by promoting free speech and criticism under the Hundred Flowers Campaign. This was also a ploy to allow critics of the regime, primarily intellectuals but also low-ranking members of the party critical of the agricultural policies, to identify themselves.

By the completion of the first five Year Economic Plan in 1957, Mao had come to doubt that the path to socialism that had been taken by the Soviet Union was appropriate for China. He was critical of Khrushchev's reversal of Stalinist policies and alarmed by the uprisings that had taken place in East Germany, Poland and Hungary, and the perception that the USSR was seeking "peaceful coexistence" with the Western powers. Mao had become convinced that China should follow its own path to communism. China's isolation from most of the rest of the world, along with the Korean War, had accelerated Mao's attacks on his perceived domestic enemies. It led him to accelerate his designs to develop an economy where the regime would get the maximum benefit from rural taxation.

Thus the Great Leap Forward (Second Five Year Plan) of China was an economic and social campaign led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from 1958 to 1962. Local officials were fearful of Anti-Rightist Campaigns and they competed to fulfil or over-fulfil quotas which were based on Mao's exaggerated claims, collecting non-existent "surpluses" and leaving farmers to starve to death. Higher officials did not dare to report the economic disaster which was being caused by these policies, and national officials, blaming bad weather for the decline in food output, took little or no action. Millions of people died in China during the Great Leap, with estimates ranging from 15 to 55 million, making the Great Chinese Famine the largest or second-largest famine in human history.

The public canteen of a commune

Around 6 to 8% of those who died during the Great Leap Forward were tortured to death or summarily killed.

The major changes which occurred in the lives of rural Chinese people included the incremental introduction of mandatory agricultural collectivization. Private farming was prohibited, and those people who engaged in it were persecuted and labelled counter-revolutionaries. Restrictions on rural people were enforced with public struggle sessions and social pressure, and forced labour was also exacted on people. Rural industrialization, while officially a priority of the campaign, saw "its development ... aborted by the mistakes of the Great Leap Forward". The Great Leap was one of two periods between 1953 and 1976 in which China's economy shrank.

The Great Chinese Famine

The disorganization and waste created by the Great Leap, compounded by natural disasters and by the termination of Soviet economic aid, led to widespread famine in China.

The Great Chinese Famine was a period between 1959 and 1961 in the history of China, characterized by widespread famine. Some scholars have also included the years 1958 or 1962. It is widely regarded as the deadliest famine and one of the greatest man-made disasters in human history, with an estimated death toll due to starvation that ranges in the tens of millions (15 to 55 million). The most stricken provinces were Anhui (18% dead), Chongqing (15%), Sichuan (13%), Guizhou (11%) and Hunan (8%).

The major contributing factors to the famine were the policies of the Great Leap Forward (1958 to 1962) and people's communes, launched by Mao, such as inefficient distribution of food within the nation's planned economy; requiring the use of poor agricultural techniques; the Four Pests Campaign that reduced sparrow populations, which disrupted the ecosystem; over-reporting of grain production; and ordering millions of farmers to switch to iron and steel production.

Policy changes affecting how farming was organized coincided with droughts and floods. As a result, year-over-year grain production fell dramatically in China. The harvest was down by 15% in 1959 compared to 1958, and by 1960, it was at 70% of its 1958 level. Specifically, according to China's governmental data, crop production decreased from 200 million tons (or 400 billion jin) in 1958 to 170 million tons (or 340 billion jin) in 1959, and to 143.5 million tons (or 287 billion jin) in 1960.

There are widespread oral reports, though little official documentation, of human cannibalism being practised in various forms as a result of the famine. To survive, people had to resort to every possible means, from eating earth and poisons to stealing and killing and even eating human flesh. Due to the scale of the famine, some have speculated that the resulting cannibalism could be described as "on a scale unprecedented in the history of the 20th century."

Yang Jisheng's seminal book, Tombstone: The Chinese Famine 1958-1962 has described instances of cannibalism during that period.

In Henan alone, there were at least 20 cases of people eating human flesh. An 18-year-old girl drowned her five-year-old cousin and ate him. The boy's 14-year -old elder sister was also driven by hunger and ate her brother's flesh. In Anhui, there were 63 cases of cannibalism between 1959 and 1960. A couple strangled their eight-year-old son, and then cooked and ate him. In the same province, a man dug-up a corpse, ate some of it, and sold a kilo as pork.

Starving children in Shanghai during the famine

Famine along the mid-Yangzi was averted in 1956 through the timely allocation of food aid, but in 1957 the Party's response was to increase the proportion of the harvest collected by the state to insure against further disasters. Moderates within the Party, including Zhou Enlai, argued for a reversal of collectivization on the grounds that claiming the bulk of the harvest for the state had made the people's food security depends upon the constant, efficient, and transparent functioning of the government.

By the winter of 1958–59, Mao himself had come to recognize that some adjustments were necessary, including decentralization of ownership to the constituent elements of the communes and a scaling down of the unrealistically high production targets in both industry and agriculture. He insisted, however, that in broad outline his new Chinese road to socialism, including the concept of the communes and the belief that China, though “poor and blank,” could leap ahead of other countries, was basically sound.

In 1959, Mao had to delegate day-to-day leadership to pragmatic moderates like Chinese President Liu Shaoqi and Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping.

Mao retires, Shaoqi becomes head of state

As the horrifying (and almost entirely preventable) results of the Great Leap Forward became obvious, leaders began to discuss how to bring relief to those areas hardest hit by famine. 

in the midst of this chaos, on 25 March 1959, the expanded Politburo of the CCP met in Shanghai. Though the issue that topped the agenda was the Great Leap Forward, the Tibetan issue came up because the Tibetan revolt has just been crushed and the Dalai Lama had fled to India. Both Deng and Liu Shaoqi were advocating more realistic economic policies. But Deng was a hardliner when it came to dealing with Tibet. 

Despite the consensus on Tibet, Mao was still in trouble and the Shanghai meeting endorsed his retirement from his post as the Chairman of the People's Republic or the head of state. That post was given to Shaoqi. Mao stayed on as Chairman of the Party and continued manipulation.

The well-educated Zhou Enlai had actually been one of the first to initiate a campaign against Mao, as early as 1956. But Zhou, feeling insecurity, undertook 'self-criticism' in March 1958, for opposing Mao. He confessed in front of the Party commission: "I take the main responsibility for submitting the report opposing rash advance (of Mao), in effect dashing cold water on the upsurge among the masses...at the time I lacked perception, and it was only later that I gradually came to understand that this was a directional error on the issue of socialist construction."

With this opportunism,  a humiliated Zhou rescued himself from later purges by Mao. He demonstrated opportunism again when the CCP convened a meeting of its Politburo and a plenum of the CC at Lushan, a mountain resort in Jiangxi, in July 1959.

Peng Dehuai's missive to Mao

After a personal fact-finding trip through many of the regions most affected by the campaign, defence minister Peng Dehuai learned of the severe suffering and widespread starvation. Peng Dehuai, as a veteran of the Long March, hero of the Korean War, and longtime friend of Mao, felt compelled to broach the issue and to prevent any further deterioration of the situation. Peng presented his findings after the Central Committee had confirmed the “success" of the movement during the Lushan Meeting. 

The Lushan Conference was a meeting of the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held between July and August 1959. The CCP Politburo met in an "expanded session" between July 2 and August 1, followed by the 8th Plenum of the CCP Eighth Central Committee from August 2 – 16. The major topic of discussion was the Great Leap Forward.

Although many of the more moderate leaders had reservations about the new policy, the only senior leader to speak out openly was Marshal Peng Dehuai. He denounced the excesses of the Great Leap and the economic losses they had caused.

While the Conference was on, Peng wrote a letter to Mao on July 13 and 14, 1959, in which he did not seek to grandstand and went to great lengths to make his comments constructive. He did, however, point out the failures of the movement in a frank and forthright manner, while most of his colleagues chose to remain silent. As a result of Mao Zedong's failure to address the agricultural mistakes, the country experienced three years of famine, killing over 30 million people.

In the letter, he said that " there is a growing tendency towards boasting and exaggeration on a fairly extensive scale" and "the exaggeration trend has become so common in various areas and departments that reports of unbelievable miracles have appeared in newspapers and magazines to bring a great loss of prestige to the Party." (4)

He further said: "Petty-bourgeois fanaticism which makes us vulnerable to "left" errors. In the Great Leap Forward of 1958,1, like many other comrades, was misled by the achievements of the Great Leap Forward and the zeal of the mass movement. As a result, some "Left" tendencies developed in our heads. We were thinking of entering a communist society in one stride, and the idea of trying to be the first to do this gained an upper hand in our minds for a time. So we banished from our minds the mass line and the working style of seeking truth from facts, which had been cultivated by the Party for a long time."

Peng Dehuai,1934-1935

With Peng's letter in hand, Mao set out to test the loyalty of each person in attendance at the Lushan Conference. And, to accomplish this, he personally circulated Peng’s letter of opinion to everyone present. By gauging their reactions, he could see who was steadfastly in support of Mao’s leadership, and who was not. Sensing what Mao was up to, Peng urgently requested to have all copies of his letter retrieved, claiming that it was a private missive intended for Mao’s eyes only. The request was denied.

Next, to prevent potential defectors from conspiring behind his back in small group meetings, Mao convened a full plenary session of the Lushan Conference. Speaking to the assembled party leaders on July 23, he addressed head-on the question of rising dissatisfaction with the Great Leap.

Mao confronts Peng

By turns humble, rambling, introspective, egotistical, sarcastic, and downright intimidating, Mao confronted his chief critic, Peng Dehuai:

Now that you’ve said so much, [Mao began,] let me say something … People say we’ve become isolated from the masses, but the masses still support us … [Some comrades] are wavering. They [pay lip service], affirming that the Great Leap and the people’s communes are good and correct. But we must see on whose side they [really] stand. I would advise them not to waver at this crucial point in time. [Their] brinkmanship is rather dangerous. If you don’t believe me, [just] wait and see what happens.

Having said this, Mao paused for effect. Casting his gaze in the general direction of a group of top PLA generals seated in the conference hall, he laid down the gauntlet: “If the People’s Liberation Army won’t follow me,” he said, “then I will go down to the countryside, reorganize the Red Army guerrillas, and organize other People’s Liberation Army.”

Pausing yet again for effect, he continued: “But I think the Army will follow me.” At that point, several Chinese generals stood up and shouted their pledges of allegiance to Mao.

When Mao finished speaking, Peng Dehuai’s famously short temper erupted. He accused Mao of despotism, comparing him to Stalin in his later years; and he warned that “if the Chinese peasants were not so patient, we’d have another Hungary [on our hands].”

The gloves were off, and Mao now responded in kind, accusing Peng of being a rightist, of sabotaging the people’s democratic dictatorship, and of attempting to organize an opposition faction within the Communist Party.

Things turned even uglier when Mao attempted to cut short the defence minister’s retort, at which point Peng angrily reminded the chairman of a quarrel they had had two decades earlier, during the anti-Japanese War. The defence minister had overplayed his hand. Several key leaders who had initially been inclined to endorse his criticism of the Great Leap, including such senior figures as Zhou Enlai, Liu Shaoqi, and Marshal Zhu De, now backed off, intimidated by the chairman’s display of full-bore combativeness. Mao had won.

Peng is sacked

In the days that followed, no one ventured to speak out in Peng Dehuai’s defence. At Mao’s initiative, Peng and his small inner circle of supporters, including the PLA chief of staff/  Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhu De,  deputy foreign minister Zhang Wentian, and Mao’s own longtime personal secretary Tian Jiaying, were officially charged with having formed an ‘anti-party clique’, and they were subjected to varying degrees of punishment. Peng himself was stripped of his post as defence minister and placed under house arrest in Beijing.

Zhang Wentian, a party veteran, a Politburo member, and General Secretary of the Party during 1935-1943, was outspoken in his criticism of Mao. Peng, Zhang and other critics were branded 'rightists' and 'counter-revolutionaries' and were purged after the Lushan conference. Zhang was accused of having 'illicit relations with a foreign country, which meant the Soviet Union, and buckets of sewage water were poured over his head as he was ordered to confess his mistakes. 

The lessons of Peng Dehuai’s abject defeat at the hands of Mao were not lost on anyone in the party’s leadership circle: First, it was clearly safer to err on the side of leftism than on the side of rightism. And second, despite Mao’s open invitation to his colleagues to speak out freely and openly, challenging the chairman could be extremely hazardous to one’s political health. As a senior Chinese diplomat put it, “After Lushan, the whole party shut up. We were all afraid to speak out.”

Mao denounced Peng (who came from a poor peasant family) and his supporters as "bourgeois", and launched a nationwide campaign against "rightist opportunism". Peng was replaced by Lin Biao, who began a systematic purge of Peng's supporters from the military. He was immediately removed from all party and state posts and placed in detention until his death during the Cultural Revolution.

From that time, Mao regarded any criticism of his policies as nothing less than a crime of lèse-majesté, meriting exemplary punishment. The old marshal Zhu De, founder of PLA, had tried to protect Peng at Lushan by criticising him only mildly. That was enough for Mao, and Zhu was dismissed from his post as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.

 The CCP studied the damage which was done at conferences it held in 1960 and 1962, especially at the "Seven Thousand Cadres Conference". Mao did not retreat from his policies; instead, he blamed problems on bad implementation and "rightists" who opposed him.

Though few spoke up at Lushan in support of Peng, a considerable number of the top leaders sympathized with him in private. Almost immediately, in 1960, Mao began building an alternative power base in the People’s Liberation Army, which the new defence minister, Lin Biao, had set out to turn into a “great school of Mao Zedong Thought.” At about the same time, Mao began to denounce the emergence, not only in the Soviet Union but also in China itself, of “new bourgeois elements” among the privileged strata of the state and party bureaucracy and the technical and artistic elite. Under those conditions, he concluded, a “protracted, complex, and sometimes even violent class struggle” would continue during the whole socialist stage.

Peng was brought to Beijing in chains, in 1966

Thus the effects on the upper levels of government and the Party in response to the disaster were complex, with Mao purging Peng Dehuai,  temporary promoting Lin Biao, Liu Shaoqi, and Deng Xiaoping, and Mao himself losing some power and prestige following the Great Leap Forward, which led him to launch the Cultural Revolution in 1966.

Peng lived in virtual obscurity until 1965, when the reformers Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping supported Peng's limited return to government, developing military industries in Southwest China. In 1966, following the advent of the Cultural Revolution, Peng was arrested by Red Guards. From 1966–1970, radical factions within the Communist Party, led by Lin Biao and Mao's wife, Jiang Qing, singled out Peng for national persecution, and Peng was publicly humiliated in numerous large-scale struggle sessions and subjected to physical and psychological torture in organized efforts to force Peng to confess his "crimes" against Mao and the Communist Party.

In 1970, Peng was formally tried and sentenced to life imprisonment, and he died in prison in 1974. After Mao died in 1976, Peng's old ally, Deng Xiaoping, emerged as China's paramount leader. Deng led an effort to formally rehabilitate people who had been unjustly persecuted during the Cultural Revolution, and Peng was one of the first leaders to be posthumously rehabilitated, in 1978.

Mao's Spy

One big reason that Mao was able to intimidate his critics so consistently and so effectively—aside from his famous mercurial temper and iron will—was his chief of internal security, Kang Sheng. Ever since the mid-1930s, Kang Sheng had been entrusted by Mao with the task of compiling secret dossiers on all party leaders at or above the provincial level.

Knowing that such career-damaging ‘black materials’ existed and that Mao would not hesitate to use them to destroy his colleagues was a huge deterrent to would-be critics. In this respect, Kang Sheng was Mao’s chief enabler, in much the same way that Lavrentiy Beria had been Joseph Stalin’s principal spy. Without such loyal and utterly ruthless security chiefs, both Stalin and Mao might not have enjoyed such apparent invincibility.

Kang Sheng was a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official, best known for having overseen the work of the CCP's internal security and intelligence apparatus during the early 1940s and again at the height of the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A member of the CCP from the early 1920s, he spent time in Moscow during the early 1930s, where he learned the methods of the NKVD.

In 1936, Kang established the Office for the Elimination of Counterrevolutionaries and worked closely with the Soviet secret police, the NKVD, in purging perhaps hundreds of Chinese in Moscow.

After returning to China in 1937, Kang switched his allegiance to Mao and became a close associate of Mao during the Anti-Japanese War, the Chinese Civil War and after. Kang was a valuable catch for Mao as he strove to consolidate the power he had won at the Zunyi Conference in January 1935. Kang could betray all the secrets of Wang Ming, Mao's political rival in the Party, and his supporters.

At Yan'an, Kang was close to Jiang Qing, who may have been Kang's mistress when he visited Shandong in 1931. (5) In Yan'an, Jiang became the lover of Mao, who later married her.

Kang Sheng was the mastermind behind the "pain and friction" that underlay the Rectification process. He used a classic Soviet technique of accusing loyal party members of being Nationalist spies. Once they had confessed under torture, their confessions could then set off an avalanche of accusations and arrests. At the same time, Mao was not keen to have a single man in such a position of power. Accordingly, following the CCP's Seventh Congress in April 1945, Kang was replaced as head of both the Social Affairs Department and the Military Intelligence Department.

Kang with Mao

After his fall from the security posts, in December 1946 Kang was assigned by Mao Zedong, Zhu De and Liu Shaoqi to review the Party's land reform project in Longdong, Gansu Province. In the name of social justice, he encouraged the peasants to settle scores by killing landlords and rich peasants.

Early in 1948, he was appointed deputy chief of the Party's East China Bureau, under Rao Shushi. Some commentators speculate that the private humiliation of being placed under a former subordinate may be one reason why Kang "fell ill" and largely disappeared from view until after Rao's fall in 1954. Kang seems to have displayed, manic-depressive psychosis and temporal lobe epilepsy.

The challenges that Kang faced during the early months of 1956 underscored the dangers he would have risked by continuing his retreat. As soon as he reappeared, Kang encountered serious problems that caused his position in the hierarchy to fluctuate dramatically. After the purge of Gao Gang and Rao Shushi in 1954, he ranked sixth, below Chairman Mao, Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai, Zhu De and Chen Yun. But in February 1956, just weeks after his return to public life, he was listed below Peng Zhen. 

By the end of April, he was reported in tenth place, even below Luo Fu, the only member of the 28 Bolsheviks who still held a Politburo seat. Yet on May Day of 1956, Kang was suddenly back in sixth place. Kang suffered a severe reversal of fortune at the Central Committee plenum that followed the first session of the CCP's Eighth Congress when he was demoted to alternate, nonvoting member of the Politburo.

Mao's own position was weakening, as evidenced by the decision of the CCP's Eighth Congress to delete the phrase "guided by the thought of Mao Zedong" from the new Party constitution and by re-establishing the role of General Secretary, abolished in 1937. Kang's emergence during the cultural revolution as one of the most important Maoist stalwarts suggests that it is not unlikely that at the 8th Congress Mao saved Kang from even greater humiliation.

Thereafter, Kang remained at or near the pinnacle of power until his death in 1975. After the death of Mao and the subsequent arrest of the Gang of Four, Kang was accused of sharing responsibility with the Gang for the excesses of the Cultural Revolution and in 1980 he was expelled posthumously from the CCP.

To divert the mass attention from the strife in China and the threat to his leadership inside the Party, Mao planned the attack on India.

The attack on India

The open split with the Soviet Union, though it can be traced to Mao’s resentment at Khrushchev’s failure to consult him before launching de-Stalinization—resulted, above all, from the Soviet reaction to the Great Leap policies. Khrushchev regarded Mao’s claims for the communes as ideologically presumptuous, and he heaped ridicule on them; he underlined his displeasure by withdrawing Soviet technical assistance in 1960, leaving many large industrial plants unfinished. Khrushchev also tried to put pressure on China in its dealings with Taiwan and India and in other foreign policy issues. Mao forgot neither the affront to his and China’s dignity nor the economic damage.

As for class struggle in China itself, Mao’s fear that revisionism might appear there was heightened by the policies pursued in the early 1960s to deal with the economic consequences of the Great Leap Forward. The response to the famine by Liu Shaoqi (who had succeeded Mao as chairman of the People’s Republic in 1959), Deng Xiaoping, and the economic planners was to make use of material incentives and to strengthen the role of individual households in agricultural production. At first, Mao agreed reluctantly that such steps were necessary, but during the first half of 1962, he came increasingly to perceive the methods used to promote recovery as implying the repudiation of the whole thrust of the Great Leap strategy. It was as a direct response to that challenge that at the 10th Plenary Session of the Central Committee in September 1962 he issued the call, “Never forget the class struggle!”

During the Seven Thousand Cadres Conference in early 1962, Liu Shaoqi, then President of China, formally attributed 30% of the famine to natural disasters and 70% to man-made errors.

Dr Li Zhisui, Mao's personal physician, wrote in Mao's biography later that Mao's support within the Party was waning even after Lushan. In January 1962, when Mao convened another expanded CC to discuss the continuing disaster, his support within the Party was at its lowest. At the meeting, President Shaoqi openly blamed the famine on 'man-made disasters.' Shaoqi wanted to bring back the leaders who had been purged, which made Mao furious.

A failed Mao, to win over the masses, show heroism, and regain control inside the Party, waged an attack on India, with his crony Lin Biao.

Before launching the Himalayan military intervention, Beijing sought and received reassurances from both superpowers. The US indicated that it had no immediate plans to either “unleash Taiwan” or to escalate the Indo-China conflict. Moscow, too, sent word that it would remain neutral in case of a Sino-Indian conflict.

In India’s remote and inaccessible Aksai Chin, it was months before New Delhi realised, in 1955, that China was building a road linking Xinjiang and Tibet. In 1961, to overcome the impression that India had not adequately pursued its territorial rights, PM Nehru adopted what came to be known as the “forward policy,” moving its outposts forward and closer to Chinese forces.

Nehru with Sikh Regiment, 1962

The Chinese attack on India took place in two stages; a brief preliminary offensive on October 20, 1962, followed by a massive assault in mid-November, reaching the Himalayan foothills. Indian soldiers fought gallantly in NEFA (now Arunachal) as well as in Ladakh, often to the last man and last bullet, but in vain. The rout lasted all the way up to November 20 when the Chinese declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew 20 km north of the LAC.

During the next three years Mao waged such a struggle, primarily through the Socialist Education Movement in the countryside, and it was over the guidelines for that campaign that the major political battles were fought within the Chinese leadership. At the end of 1964, when Liu Shaoqi refused to accept Mao’s demand to direct the main thrust of class struggle against “capitalist roaders” in the party, Mao decided that “Liu had to go.”

Liu's conflict with Mao

Liu Shaoqi had spoken very strongly in favour of the Great Leap Forward at the Eighth CCP National Congress in May 1958. At this Congress Liu stood together with Deng Xiaoping and Peng Zhen in support of Mao's policies against those who were more critical, such as Chen Yun and Zhou Enlai.

As a result, Liu gained influence within the party. In April 1959, he succeeded Mao as Chairman of the People's Republic of China (Chinese President). However, Liu began to voice concern about the outcomes of the Great Leap in the August 1959 Lushan Plenum. In order to correct the mistakes of the Great Leap Forward, Liu and Deng led economic reforms that bolstered their prestige among the party apparatus and the national populace. The economic policies of Deng and Liu were notable for being more moderate than Mao's radical ideas.

Liu was publicly acknowledged as Mao's chosen successor in 1961; However, by 1962, when Mao waged the war against India, Liu's opposition to Mao's policies had led Mao to mistrust him. After Mao succeeded in restoring his prestige during the 1960s, Liu's eventual downfall became "inevitable". Liu's position as the second-most powerful leader of the CCP contributed to Mao's rivalry with him at least as much as Liu's political beliefs or factional allegiances in the 1960s, especially during and after the Seven Thousand Cadres Conference (1962 January 11-February 7), indicating that Liu's later persecution was the result of a power struggle that went beyond the goals and well-being of either China or the Party.

In a conference at the seaside town resort of Beidaihe in August 1962, Mao blamed the disastrous consequences of his Great Leap Forward on Liu, Zhou, Deng, Chen Yun and other moderates.

According to Roderick MacFarquhar in his book, Origins of the Cultural Revolution (p303), a major build-up of war material and an increase in the number of Chinese troops along the border could be noticed only a few days after the Beidaihe conference was concluded on 27 August.

Liu was labelled as a "traitor" and "the biggest capitalist roader in the Party"; he was displaced as Party Deputy Chairman by Lin Biao in July 1966. By 1967, Liu and his wife Wang Guangmei were placed under house arrest in Beijing. Liu was removed from all his positions and expelled from the Party in October 1968. At Congress, Liu was denounced as a traitor and an enemy agent. Zhou Enlai read the Party verdict that Liu was "a criminal traitor, enemy agent and scab in the service of the imperialists, modern revisionists and the Kuomintang reactionaries". Liu's conditions did not improve after he was denounced in the Ninth Party Congress in 1969, and he died soon afterwards.

Liu with Indira Gandhi, 1954

By 1966, few senior leaders in China questioned the need for widespread reform to combat the growing problems of corruption and bureaucratisation within the Party and the government. With the goal of reforming the government to be more efficient and true to the Communist ideal, Liu himself chaired the enlarged Politburo meeting that officially began the Cultural Revolution. However, Liu and his political allies quickly lost control of the Cultural Revolution soon after it was called, when Mao used the movement to progressively monopolize political power and destroy his perceived enemies.

The Cultural Revolution declared in 1966, was overtly pro-Maoist, and gave Mao the power and influence to purge the Party of his political enemies at the highest levels of government. Along with closing China's schools and universities, and Mao's exhortations to young Chinese to randomly destroy old buildings, temples, and art, and to attack their teachers, school administrators, party leaders, and parents, the Cultural Revolution also increased Mao's prestige so much that entire villages adopted the practice of offering prayers to Mao before every meal.

Mao established himself as a demigod accountable to no one, purging any that he suspected of opposing him and directing the masses and Red Guards "to destroy virtually all state and party institutions". After the Cultural Revolution was announced, most of the senior members of the CCP who had voiced any hesitation in following Mao's direction, including Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping, were removed from their posts almost immediately and, with their families, subjected to mass criticism and humiliation.

Liu and Deng, along with many others, were denounced as "capitalist roaders". Liu was labelled as a "traitor" and "the biggest capitalist roader in the Party"; he was displaced as Party Deputy Chairman by Lin Biao in July 1966. By 1967, Liu and his wife Wang Guangmei were placed under house arrest in Beijing. Liu was removed from all his positions and expelled from the Party in October 1968. After his arrest, Liu disappeared from public view.

He was denied medicine for his diabetes, and for pneumonia, which developed after his arrest. Liu was eventually given treatment only when Jiang Qing, the actress wife of Mao, feared he would die; she desired that Liu be kept alive to serve as a "living target" during the Ninth Party Congress in 1969.

At Congress, Liu was denounced as a traitor and an enemy agent. Zhou Enlai read the Party verdict that Liu was "a criminal traitor, enemy agent and scab in the service of the imperialists, modern revisionists and the Kuomintang reactionaries". Liu's conditions did not improve after he was denounced in Congress, and he died soon afterwards, on November 12, aged 70.

After the launch of Reforms and Opening Up, the Chinese Communist Party officially stated in June 1981 that the famine was mainly due to the mistakes of the Great Leap Forward as well as the Anti-Rightist Campaign, in addition to some natural disasters and the Sino-Soviet split.

______________________

1. China’s Strategy for Sino-Indian Boundary Disputes, 1950-1962, Asian Perspective, Johns Hopkins University Press
2. The CIA's Secret War in Tibet, Kenneth Conboy, James Morrison, University Press of Kansas, 2002
3. China's India War, Bertil Lintner, Oxford University Press, 2018
4. Memoirs of a Chinese Marshal, Peng Dehuai, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing, 1984
5. Faligot, Roger; Kauffer, Remi (1989). The Chinese Secret Service. Translated by Christine Donougher


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